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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

the much fabled early Canadian warming , can it happen ?

The displacement is nailed on now - trust me - its whether we can get another more traditional style warming to follow up at some stage, which it is showing signs of doing at 384.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, The4Seasons said:

Does anyone have the snow depth charts for these latest runs? 

Image result for desert gif

Sorry hehe-

In all seriousness, as i just posted, UKMO/GEM look similar at 144 and GEM goes onto to show a big scandy block with potential battlegrounds..

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
12 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The GFS doesn't show a great deal of precip to be fair - definitely not a dumping.

A snow to rain event for the Southwest if taken at face value. All academic at this range, of course.

viewimage.thumb.png.c32226153a553edb61380cb55492b318.png

Fair point. But I take precipitation charts even less seriously than synoptic ones...

Though there is, I think, a vague similarity between T+384 and the last few days of 1978?

Netweather GFS Image

#winterofdiscontent

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast

Iirc there was one last year too

7 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

the much fabled early Canadian warming , can it happen ?

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Posted
  • Location: Cowbridge, Wales (105m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, cold snowy winters, thunderstorms
  • Location: Cowbridge, Wales (105m ASL)
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Image result for desert gif

Sorry hehe-

In all seriousness, as i just posted, UKMO/GEM look similar at 144 and GEM goes onto to show a big scandy block with potential battlegrounds..

For the mild thread :diablo:

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Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight

I for one definitely don't think the UKMO is all doom and gloom, it is still trying and isn't a million million miles off. 

Icon isn't great again, but I have seen worse before, i'm not too knowledgeable on the Icon so I don't want to discard it just from previous experience with other scenarios with other models.

GFS another really really good run with potential snow showing in the South whilst the GEM tries but doesn't quite make it.

As others have said all the uncertainty and just from previous experience I think it will take another few days to see what really happens. 

If I remember back in March this year, March 2013, December 2010 on quite a few occasions where the models would look really really good, then they back off and then a couple of days later they all jump on board again, these are just a handful of scenarios. Doesn't mean it will happen this time round but its just a reason why I never give up because of a couple of non favourable runs. 

The season has just begun, and seeing these sort of charts already is great to see whatever happens

Currently GFS P and next ECM, wander whats it will bring  

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
5 hours ago, weirpig said:

Indeed  i love sliders  neigh on impossible to call even a few hours before the event    but they certainly pay off if its perfect.  

like 10 Dec last year

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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

The FV3 continues to have cold interest as early as Sunday 

gfs-0-114.png?12

Yeah all this chasing of a easterly we are missing the northerly at 120 hrs,  snow showers down the east coast eventually. Starting as rain/sleet

Edited by seabreeze86
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
36 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GEM looking similar to UKMO at 144 and we still get the scandy high..

GEM is rubish, not much of a cold spell at all, don’t know why it’s being referred to as a ‘battleground’ 

44982005-08A5-423F-A62B-E7CAB8CEBCC4.png

DDB099CB-D62B-4C83-BFF3-03046DAD3096.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Busy in here tonight!  Happy with the models so far, GFS looking really good, GEM also gets to blocking Scandi high, UKMO , ICON jury out but short runs both.  I do feel that the timing of this potential block vis a vis the potential SSW will be interesting to resolve - there is the possibility of going right through the heart of winter with virtually no strat vortex!   

FV3 stuck at T114 unfortunately, according to Meteociel 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
2 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Indeed Pete, as I’ve going on about recently, I think there’ll be snow to be had by this weekend mot currently forecast.  It become forecast soon as colder than thought air will dog South quickly.

#winter of discontent

 

BFTP

Ha ha ha I sound like the British Agent Gendarme in ‘Allo, Allo

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed, feb...some places NORTH OF THE M4 CORRIDOR would see quite a dumping!

Netweather GFS Image

must be a WARM SECTOR somewhere to give rain!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm excited by next week's potential from the Gfs 12z operational with borderline ice days, widespread frosts and even some snow in places!!..bring it on!:cold-emoji:❄️⛄

12_132_ukthickness850.png

12_192_uk2mtmp.png

12_204_ukthickness850.png

12_216_uk2mtmp.png

12_228_preciptype.png

12_240_uk2mtmp.png

Looking like a not-to-be-sniffed-at northerly, karl...:santa-emoji:

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

FV3 has been stuck at T144 for yonks, which also happens to be the 9th where things could go either way. This 850 chart doesn`t fill me with euro cold air joy.

 

gfsnh-1-114.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

FV3 has been stuck at T144 for yonks, which also happens to be the 9th where things could go either way. This 850 chart doesn`t fill me with euro cold air joy.

 

gfsnh-1-114.png

T114 stuie - this sunday way too early for tipping points ……..  the ecm day 7 chart is quite significant tonight for me - its not so often that ecm day 7 is horribly wrong when it has a choice to make on which route its going and has decent cross model support on a solution.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

For sack of raw-data quote..

The flat lps..mid -àt.

Aids defunction of shorwave favour...

AND AGAIN WE GAIN.

should become clean in evo...and introduce the easterly!!!

Ecm12z..

ECM1-96.gif

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM T120:

image.thumb.jpg.1e959aa1cc0538c33a5759549f535641.jpg

UKMO and GFS at same time for comparison:

image.thumb.jpg.487e7855f5a4889db8ad03787b9202c8.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.1cdb1425e7322e52ab12fb59007b8654.jpg

Siding with UKMO at the moment.  GFS is more amplified.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

GFS definitely making more of that low than the other two, crucial frames coming up..... nerves jangling for 144

Edited by Weathizard
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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

T114 stuie - this sunday way too early for tipping points ……..  the ecm day 7 chart is quite significant tonight for me - its not so often that ecm day 7 is horribly wrong when it has a choice to make on which route its going and has decent cross model support on a solution.

Hi Blue, I had earmarked this date due to always seeing the `Moyenne Des Scenarios` graph where for probably a week there was consistency prior to sheer scatter. The 9th also held big interest as this was where the Atlantic ridge was or wasn`t going to a: happen or b: going to go north and not NE over us.

Without being too FI, this was my next goalpost.

If you are siding with the ECM, I`ll quite happily go with your knowledge matey.

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