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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
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Posted

Case in point, people saying the Easterly isn't going to happen based on 1 UKMO run which isn't even all that bad.. 

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

Yes GFS 12z looking better than the 06z and UKMO/ICON. The High should be sucked up quite easily from here into Scandi.

gfs-0-138.png

gfs-0-150.png

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Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted

If the UKMO/ICON solution does turn out to be correct then hats off to the ICON after last winter when it was the first model to pick up a new signal on several occasions it never bought into this easterly. Would be ironic if it backtrack and suddenly shows this tomorrow. I'm definitely going to pay more attention to it should it prove to be correct once more

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

Here we go....Lovely stuff!:clap:

gfs-0-168.png

gfs-1-168.png

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Rocheydub Seasoned

Rocheydub

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
Posted
32 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

It just SCREAMS POTENTIAL and ALL THE BUILDING BLOCKS ARE IN PLACE but we might NEED ANOTHER BITE OF THE CHERRY because it is SQUEAKY BUM TIME for the MARGINAL UPPERS. Did I use enough NW cliches there?

And the inevitable "EGG ON FACE" comments!

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frosty ground Veteran

frosty ground

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

If the UKMO/ICON solution does turn out to be correct then hats off to the ICON after last winter when it was the first model to pick up a new signal on several occasions it never bought into this easterly. Would be ironic if it backtrack and suddenly shows this tomorrow. I'm definitely going to pay more attention to it should it prove to be correct once more

The Icon has only just picked up the signal for amplification.

Edited by frosty ground
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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted
Just now, Kentspur said:

If the UKMO/ICON solution does turn out to be correct then hats off to the ICON after last winter when it was the first model to pick up a new signal on several occasions it never bought into this easterly. Would be ironic if it backtrack and suddenly shows this tomorrow. I'm definitely going to pay more attention to it should it prove to be correct once more

Wouldn’t bother, the only reason people post it is because it’s the first model that comes out for every run, it’s a dreadful model in my opinion, I remember last winter on a couple of occasions is got people’s hopes up only to fold like a cheap tent at day 4, I bet it’s verifixation stats are well, well below the top 3.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

Is UKMO really that bad?

After reading some of the comments before looking i honestly was expecting much worse..

FWIW i think we will see a block to the NE on UKMO but its a slower process.

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
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Posted

UKMO jet 144 still moving NNE so whilst not quite as amplified will probably still deliver the same outcome in the end

GFS 12z the -8c line now gets into SE at just 132 & that airmass maintains -6c from 144 onwards.....

212E9833-F53E-4584-89AC-7B18DD91B194.thumb.png.0a9f4f02c98a9bb02d8cf893a0e5e300.png

 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

You can trace that WAA all the way from near Casablanca to the Arctic Circle...Play it again, Sam?

Netweather GFS Image

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booferking Veteran

booferking

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Posted
Just now, Daniel Smith said:

Case in point, people saying the Easterly isn't going to happen based on 1 UKMO run which isn't even all that bad.. 

Daniel we all know what happens when ukmo says no on consecutive runs it usually is right but its only one run and some of the comments were tongue in cheek comments, but for others and there comments that have been flying in all day we know there agenda and its just to troll..

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted
1 minute ago, booferking said:

Daniel we all know what happens when ukmo says no on consecutive runs it usually is right but its only one run and some of the comments were tongue in cheek comments, but for others and there comments that have been flying in all day we know there agenda and its just to troll..

Sure and this would be a valid point if the UKMO had said no.. but, that isn't the case

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted

That low in the Atlantic does appear to have grown much stronger on the 12z but it’s not really moving and the next low coming off the eastern seaboard at day 8 is tracking way to the south.

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

You can trace that WAA all the way from near Casablanca to the Arctic Circle...Play it again, Sam?

Netweather GFS Image

Ahh, the most mis quoted line in cinema history.

Hopefully GFS is on the ball tonight. It's always so annoying how we struggle to get model consensus with Easterlies.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Huge differences upstream between the GFS and UKMO at day 6 .

The GFS phases a low running east out of the USA with the troughing , this will help it pivot pulling back some of the energy so instead of running east it’s more ne allowing the block to set up .

The UKMO instead has no phasing with the USA low which is hundreds of miles further upstream and more energy spilling east .

 

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted
2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Daniel we all know what happens when ukmo says no on consecutive runs it usually is right but its only one run and some of the comments were tongue in cheek comments, but for others and there comments that have been flying in all day we know there agenda and its just to troll..

The T144 UKMO has always been the most unreliable, particularly in winter months in my opinion. UKMO is good to T120, then ECM is the boss T144-T192. After that its la la land.☺️

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frosty ground Veteran

frosty ground

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Posted
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

yes - zero pressure on the block

Would you expect it to as its still in the middle of the atlantic moving east?

Then against signs of disruption but the heights are now draining away.

gfs-0-210.png?12gfs-5-216.png?12

jet gone under

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