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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted

December the 9th, the 1st time I have seen a clean split of the coldest air in the vortex. Interestingly, the bulk of the coldest air is on the Siberian side.

Can we tap into please...

 

gfsnh-0-252.png

gfsnh-1-252.png

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
1 hour ago, TomSE12 said:

I'm really glad the title of the thread has (late November), in parenthesis. My calendar also says November 28th!! Reading some of the "wrist-slashing" type comments, you'd think it was late February, already!! :nonono:

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

Agree though, many members expecting cold too soon, Dec and early Jan are westerly dominated, hope from late Jan to early April, cold shots will arrive

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Deep Snow please Rising Star

Deep Snow please

Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
Posted
18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Why?

I assume you've never had or had a close family member who's experienced severe depression yourself if you have to ask? 

Comparing people moaning about stuff on a message board to people who slash their wrists is unnecessarily dramatic and borderline offensive.

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Tom Quintavalle Maestro

Tom Quintavalle

Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
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Posted
1 hour ago, TomSE12 said:

I'm really glad the title of the thread has (late November), in parenthesis. My calendar also says November 28th!! Reading some of the "wrist-slashing" type comments, you'd think it was late February, already!! :nonono:

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

I realise, some members may have been offended by that post and I apologise. I should have used the term, "toy throwing".

Kind regards,

Tom. :hi:

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jules216 Experienced

jules216

Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
Posted
1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

Mind you, the latest gfs op run gives us this for Central Europe around 7th/8th Dec. Nice bit of snow. 

gfseu-0-216.png

gfseu-1-216.png

Tried some reverse psychology @bluearmy 

The GFS main run turned out OK at the end. But you know when you see Azores high being menacingly advected towards Iberia it does give you an uneasy feeling. We know that about now most of the recent Decembers went pear shape for the whole of Europe basically. It would be a shame that a nice signal for central EU through would vanish that quickly. Did you get much snow in your neck of the woods @Seasonality in recent days? I am now counting days and will be leaving Ireland after 14 years on 15th of December. Location where I will be living got around 20cm yesterday and had -7C today lunchtime

47089560_10156969895128453_7785809722258489344_o.jpg

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
4 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

I realise, some members may have been offended by that post and I apologise. I should have used the term, "toy throwing".

Kind regards,

Tom. :hi:

I wouldn't worry too much, Tom...'toy throwing' is an essential part of the thread. Nothing would be the same, without it!:santa-emoji:

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

ecm 12z slow out again ………..

Out to T96 Blue

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted

Is the ecm playing catch up here. Both charts are for Saturday 1st December. The first at 7 days out taken from last Saturday's 12z and the second at 3 days out from tonight's 12z. A huge improvement. 

ECH1-168.gif

ECH1-72.GIF

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ArHu3 Rising Star

ArHu3

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
Posted
18 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Agree though, many members expecting cold too soon, Dec and early Jan are westerly dominated, hope from late Jan to early April, cold shots will arrive

Our best shots are early on though because qbo will flip to westerly later (although last year we had wqbo too and a somewhat decent end to winter) 

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Tom Quintavalle Maestro

Tom Quintavalle

Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I wouldn't worry too much, Tom...'toy throwing' is an essential part of the thread. Nothing would be the same, without it!:santa-emoji:

No problem Pete, the term I used was insensitive. Btw, I hope Spurs put up a Model "Fantasy" run, for you tonight!! See I managed to get "Model run", in there!!:oldgrin:

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

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Deep Snow please Rising Star

Deep Snow please

Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I feel like doing it myself sometimes but no matter what bad luck i have in life, i would NEVER EVER deny the right of others to crack jokes and have a bit of fun.

Oh they got the right to use it as a joke; just as we also have the right to think it's completely unnecessary in a thread about weather when less emotionally charged terms like "toy throwing" exist. Was just responding to the question why people might hate that term.

Anyway that's not really got much to do with the models so I'll leave at that.

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Is the ecm playing catch up here. Both charts are for Saturday 1st December. The first at 7 days out taken from last Saturday's 12z and the second at 3 days out from tonight's 12z. A huge improvement. 

ECH1-168.gif

ECH1-72.GIF

There does seem to be a rather large discrepancy from run to run here. Certainly trending towards something of note. I think everyone running to  concern because of the GFS just needs to wait and see, it's uncertain territory.

Edited by Deep Snow please
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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
Just now, blizzard81 said:

Ecm is so close to something special tonight but it really is like pulling teeth with this model at the moment. 

Yes at T168 N Scotland getting snow and everywhere else is getting rain ? 

925A9553-D8D9-43C1-A44F-28917615E2E2.png

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
23 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

I realise, some members may have been offended by that post and I apologise. I should have used the term, "toy throwing".

Kind regards,

Tom. :hi:

Bit offensive to infants.

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
Just now, ICE COLD said:

Yes at T168 N Scotland getting snow and everywhere else is getting rain ? 

925A9553-D8D9-43C1-A44F-28917615E2E2.png

Lol if that was a joke. If not, look at the bigger picture

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

It's getting there though

ECH1-216.gif

Let’s hope that next low stays there and doesn’t flattern that ridge ? 

Edited by ICE COLD
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booferking Veteran

booferking

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Posted
1 hour ago, booferking said:

The control is were i think we will be in 10-12 days time then blocking really takes hold thats my forecast below but dont hold it to me if im wrong.

gens-0-1-240.png

gens-0-1-264.png

gens-0-1-336.png

gens-0-0-240.png

gens-0-0-276.png

gens-0-0-348.png

ECM nearly gets there one to watch wedge.

ECM1-216.gif

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Let’s hope that next low stays there and doesn’t flattern that ridge ? 

Mmm! Baby steps by the ecm but we need to see a building of this momentum on tomorrow morning's run. 

ECH1-240.gif

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
Just now, blizzard81 said:

Mmm! Baby steps by the ecm but we need to see a building of this momentum on tomorrow morning's run. 

ECH1-240.gif

The Alantic is so frustrating, if there was more of a gap between the lows it would give that ridge a chance at building . But not this time

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted

All in all, a much more encouraging run by the ecm. We really did need a half decent run from this model. It was well overdue. 

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
Just now, ICE COLD said:

The Alantic is so frustrating, if there was more of a gap between the lows it would give that ridge a chance at building . But not this time

I am a little more encouraged by that day 10 chart than you it seems. Pressure falling over central/southern Europe and the ooomph is getting squeezed out of the Atlantic. You may be pleasantly surprised by what follows on from there. Usual caveats apply - it's a day 10 chart

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
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Posted

It just goes to show that models in protracted blocking scenarios almost always over estimate the atlantic-

A total back track from the ECM tonight towards a slower evolution & potential undercutting especially when you compare 168 V 144 today 

GFS still more amplified but most scenario lead to cold leaking SW out of Scandi --

 

Where did all those zonal posts go??m

34BC7F29-6C6C-47CD-BD68-D302F4287D36.thumb.jpeg.19ec4d7d0b644d5f8b010a887fb908b1.jpeg

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