The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[Snowman.]

18 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

snow showers in the East?Thats some big upgrade from METO.What  models are the meto using to see this big change.Must be longer range, model they use,so soon their should be some cold fl looking runs run from gfs ecm?maybe the gfs parallel has been on the money again lol,it’s been showing easterly consistently in fl recently

Mainly there own GLOSEA5. But probably from them all.

[Seasonality]

12 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Up until yesterday morning there was a strong signal in extended GEFS and EPS for central EU through and UK high.

The onset date for this pattern to occur was around 7th or 8th December.

now we get this. I know it is only one model and one run, but the trend is for more zonal look on our side of hemisphere.

Mind you, the latest gfs op run gives us this for Central Europe around 7th/8th Dec. Nice bit of snow. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just goes to show, reaction to individual runs...futile..as may be the the case for 12z.  Just let a pattern develop, consistency.  Nothing has changed as far as I’m concerned even though we have this milder blip.  I think we won’t really know more until early next week....

 

BFTP

Edited November 28, 2018 by BornFromTheVoid
Stick with the model output, thanks.

[Seasonality]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

12z GFS is very good, lovely ridge being thrown up Iceland, im not too ambitious for next 3 weeks now, certainly not in terms of proper cold, great if i have to eat my words but the main thing is we dont go proper zonal, which could ruin prospects further on, i just want to see ridges being thrown up as high into the pole as possible disrupting the Vortex.

 

Agreed, not proper zonal at all on the 12z.

Edited November 28, 2018 by Seasonality

[SLEETY]

ludicrous difference between the last run and this,no point in looking at any output past day 5 and people say ensembles at day 15 are a good idea.Yeah ok,just jog on 

[Mucka]

Just one run but I don't care what FI shows for now, if we can get somewhere near here or better out to day 7/8 that would be a great start

 

Edited November 28, 2018 by Mucka

[Ali1977]

Lots of dissapointmemt on here, so it looks unlikely any deep freeze will happens in the next 2 weeks by mid Dec (MID DEC), early Dec deep freezes are as rare as rocking horse stuff, some people forget that due to the 1in a 100 event 8/9!years ago. plenty of time yet, and we don’t have an organised PV - that’s a BIG positive late Nov.

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Much, much better effort unfolding here

And ecm at the same time from this morning's run - couldn't be more different really. Until ecm sniffs it, I'm keeping my powder dry. 

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, Spah1 said:

UK Outlook for Thursday 13 Dec 2018 to Thursday 27 Dec 2018:

The first few days of this period are likely to see an east to west split. Some wet and possibly windy weather is likely in the west, with the east having generally drier weather with some fog, frost and possibly some snow showers too.

Wrong thread but I'm amazed no one has mentioned this. You can only have snow showers in the East from an Easterly wind !

Maybe this!

so why post in here?

fro info snow showers do occur, here for instance, in NW flows with a trough embedded and similar in N'ly with troughs.

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

28 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

snow showers in the East?Thats some big upgrade from METO.What  models are the meto using to see this big change.Must be longer range, model they use,so soon their should be some cold fl looking runs run from gfs ecm?maybe the gfs parallel has been on the money again lol,it’s been showing easterly consistently in fl recently

Unfortunately for those of us in the west it's a big disappointment with METO saying basically the worst conditions will often be across western & northern areas. Here in west wales we've already been flooded 3 times since October and I fear we'll be going through it again in December too with these awful forecasts  

[Tom Quintavalle]

I'm really glad the title of the thread has (late November), in parenthesis. My calendar also says November 28th!! Reading some of the "wrist-slashing" type comments, you'd think it was late February, already!! 

Regards,

Tom. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Trop vortex not a happy chappy

[tight isobar]

13 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Lots of dissapointmemt on here, so it looks unlikely any deep freeze will happens in the next 2 weeks by mid Dec (MID DEC), early Dec deep freezes are as rare as rocking horse stuff, some people forget that due to the 1in a 100 event 8/9!years ago. plenty of time yet, and we don’t have an organised PV - that’s a BIG positive late Nov.

Tbh....the rocking horse may be opening her eyes!!..

Some truely- decent -progressive formats for cold/notable...into december!!!

[bluearmy]

Wonder what would have happened in low res gfs timeframe if it wasn’t low res and didn’t blow up that Atlantic low .......

hopefully the gfsp will be in a similar place at day 10 and we can see what a lack of resolution drop off does for the run 

not taking much from the op runs at that range other than they are inconsistent re amplification and zonality

[swfc]

5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Tbh....the rocking horse may be opening her eyes!!..

Some truely- decent -progressive formats for cold/notable...into december!!!

I love them old sayings!!! anyway bit more regarding heights threw the UK on12 z before it blows up in fi.hopefully EC goes the same way and distrupts any lows moving in from the wnw

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

I love them old sayings!!! anyway bit more regarding heights threw the UK on12 z before it blows up in fi.hopefully EC goes the same way and distrupts any lows moving in from the wnw

Lol..

Anyway distruputions of energy..

And momentum(for the ace)..

Look good..

Its unfolding...

[tight isobar]

Gfs ...PAZZA-..which im going to call it!!.

Preety much rolling the scheme!!.

The vortex hemmed in!!..*trop..moreso..separate!!

With breaks and waves cause of destruct!!..

As again now look 4 both placements/align..

For the shout is on..

Mobility/zonality..has no place to hide..and will be chased off into the ice fields!!!!

Edited November 28, 2018 by tight isobar

[booferking]

The control is were i think we will be in 10-12 days time then blocking really takes hold thats my forecast below but dont hold it to me if im wrong.

Edited November 28, 2018 by booferking

[bluearmy]

the pendulum swings back a little with the 12z gfs and gefs ……...up to ecm fi to set the tone for the remainder of the evening...………….. hopefully some balance restored after the 00z/06z suites …….

[swfc]

gFS parallel basically not as good as the gFS on the 12z??? how complicated this ATM lol

[stodge]

The 12Z Parallel hasn't finished rolling out so let's reserve judgement on that.

The difference between OP and Control is simply the rifdge coming SE from Greenland is able to hold back the Atlantic LP and indeed push them back westward allowing the much colder air to come in from the east. 

Oddly enough, the NH profile for the OP gets more interesting at the very end of FI with the PV displaced over the Pole so it may just be a matter of timing.

[The Eagle]

1 hour ago, TomSE12 said:

 Reading some of the "wrist slashing!! 

I hate that term. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, The Eagle said:

I hate that term. 

Why?

[Mike Poole]

FV3 looking interesting here at T276:

Even Ian Brown would struggle to call that zonal!

 

[ArHu3]

40 minutes ago, aitchbomb said:

On the bright side, so long as we aren’t imminently about to experience deep cold we won’t have to tolerate the usual suspects desperately looking for the breakdown.

He tends to be right and when real cold spells are coming he retreats to the short-term model thread. He doesn't make the weather either (no one does) , just tells what he sees in the models 

Edited November 28, 2018 by ArHu3