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Blessed Weather

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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5 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Utterly miserable weather! compounded by losing my father yesterday in the early hours...😢

Very sorry to hear this sad news. ❣ 

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5 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Utterly miserable weather! compounded by losing my father yesterday in the early hours...😢

So sorry for your loss

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7 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Utterly miserable weather! compounded by losing my father yesterday in the early hours...😢

Oh no what happened?

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8 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Utterly miserable weather! compounded by losing my father yesterday in the early hours...😢

So sorry to hear your sad news. My first Wife passed away, some ten days before Christmas in 2008. Although it wasn't unexpected, it still made for a very difficult Christmas, especially for our children. My thoughts are with yourself and your family.

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

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CHRISTMAS COUNTDOWN with SAMMY SNOWMAN

Here is my final report on the likely conditions at Noon, on Christmas Day (t48), seen through the eyes of the GFS 12z run.See z500 chart below:

gfs-0-48.png?12?12

High Pressure is centred over N.E.France/Belgium. Complex are of Low Pressure lies to the S.W. of Iceland/southern tip of Greenland. The weather should be dry with some sunny spells and variable cloud. There may have been a slight overnight frost, in any clear spells. Max. Temps will probably be around average or just above, depending on overnight conditions. It should feel very pleasant for an after Christmas lunch walk, with light winds.

QUE SERA, SERA - (10% - 19% PROBABILITY) - ODDS - 9/1 to 19/5. (Although on the basis of the above chart Odds should be 33/1 or more!!) I see Bookmaker's are still holding London (Heathrow) Odds, at 10/1. But they will tell you again that they've already taken money on a White outcome, so can't offer longer Odds. In no way should you be tempted by the that price!!:nonono: Keep your hard earned dosh in your pocket!! It would take the most embarrassing climb down by Forecast Models, during the age of the Internet, for us to experience Christmas Day snowfall, now. 

th?id=OIP.tM9dlYp5fMSm-l_aHApxSwAAAA&pid

I've given SAMMY the ambivalent, QUE SERA, SERA, expression, as he's feeling resigned to the inevitable snowless Christmas now. If there were to be an overnight frost, one consolation for SAMMY is, that he shouldn't suffer too much from snowmelt.

In a short while, I will post up an equivalent report on the 12z ECMWF run(t48).

Regards,

Tom. :hi::snowman-emoji:

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Here is my final report on the likely conditions at Noon, on Christmas Day (t48), seen through the eyes of the

ECMWF 12z run. See z500 chart below:

ECM1-48.GIF

The ECM chart above, is virtually identical to the GFS chart, in the post above. I should also add that it's possible if skies remain clear, a little Mist or Fog, may form overnight Christmas Eve/Day.  As the Models have now converged on the likely synoptic conditions for Christmas Day, I will not add to my comments in the post above.

I will give one more report on conditions on Christmas Day itself.

SAMMY and his family would like to wish you all a Very Merry Christmas, albeit a snowless one!!:oldsad:

Regards,

Tom. :hi::snowman-emoji:

Edited by TomSE12

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1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

Oh no what happened?

My father had an aneurysm which ruptured and more or less died in my arms, paramedics and ambulance were here in hasty time but by the time he was off to hospital his time was up. We discussed it but opted not to have an op 2 years ago due to his age (82 at the time) and his other background ailments and thought it would have been touch and go if he made it through.

Sorry Tom to hear the similarities with you...is that your current wife in your avatar? 

I might be making the odd post but wish everybody a happy Xmas and a happy snowy healthy New Year!...well healthy New Year anyway I was pushing it a bit far!...

On another note isn't this weather just dire 😞

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Quote:

"Sorry Tom to hear the similarities with you...is that your current wife in your avatar?"  

Hi, Fwtd,

Yes that's my current Wife, Colette. Colette has been brilliant looking after me since my own Haemorrhagic Stroke, three and a bit years ago. Colette works as a Senior/Team Leader, in a Residential Care Home nearby, in Chislehurst. So poor thing, after looking after the elderly all day, she has to come home and look after this 'ole Raspberry, bless her!! Colette is ten years younger than me and in our wedding photo, it looks more like I should be her Father, giving her away!! :oldgrin:

My own Mother, died of a Brain Haemorrhage back in 2004, aged 80.

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

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Whisper it quietly but all the output looks pretty dier at the moment. If it wasn’t for the upcoming SSW to hang on to things would be at an all time low 😬😬. Greece & the balkans once again look set to go into the big freeze. 

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'So poor thing, after looking after the elderly all day, she has to come home and look after this 'ole Raspberry, bless her!! Colette is ten years younger than me and in our wedding photo, it looks more like I should be her Father, giving her away'!! - hahahhaha! - that made me chuckle Tom, sorry to hear you've been having your own health problems and hope all is okay and looks like your a happy and content man now!

Shotski - totally agree, the model output is dire currently and it's only the SSW that's keeping hopes up. See Mr Murr on the strat thread is positive with timings/split etc. (just hope he's more accurate than with some of his LRF's (no slant intended as he's a fairly intelligent fellow). 🙂

Edited by Froze were the Days

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16 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

'So poor thing, after looking after the elderly all day, she has to come home and look after this 'ole Raspberry, bless her!! Colette is ten years younger than me and in our wedding photo, it looks more like I should be her Father, giving her away'!! - hahahhaha! - that made me chuckle Tom, sorry to hear you've been having your own health problems and hope all is okay and looks like your a happy and content man now!

Shotski - totally agree, the model output is dire currently and it's only the SSW that's keeping hopes up. See Mr Murr on the strat thread is positive with timings/split etc. (just hope he's more accurate than with some of his LRF's (no slant intended as he's a fairly intelligent fellow). 🙂

Hi FwtD, yes thanks very content now. Don't think I'd still be here, if it wasn't for Colette's care and attention to detail, fighting my corner with Benefit Agencies and Hospital Depts!!

Having such a "close shave" with death a few years ago, it certainly has helped me put my weather obsession, more into perspective. I no longer obsess so much about snow, whatever will be, will be (Que sera, sera!!). 

Also, I've learnt to put my Brontophobia, more into perspective now.
Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

Edited by TomSE12

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Morning all. A bit chilly walk into work through St James's park this morning. But at least my bus ride only took an hour with no one on the roads... yet 🙄

short day today me thinks

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Looks a nice morning out there. 

How are you all spending Christmas? Looking anixously out the window just in case the Snow Fairy has been as she wasn’t watching the mod thread?

I might treat the family by allowing them to have the  heating on. Only an hour though. Wouldn’t want to spoil them. 

Better go as I have just been reminded I have not got our turkey out of the freezer so better give it a nice warm bath to thaw it a bit. The Brussels sprouts are already cooking as I don’t like them looking green. 

Looking forward to the next year so we can all look forward to being insulted or annoyed by someone however innocuous.

Hope you all have a great time and not too many are left sitting in an airport lounge or miss the last train, which probably leaves sometime this afternoon.

Snipper

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13 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

My father had an aneurysm which ruptured and more or less died in my arms, paramedics and ambulance were here in hasty time but by the time he was off to hospital his time was up. We discussed it but opted not to have an op 2 years ago due to his age (82 at the time) and his other background ailments and thought it would have been touch and go if he made it through.

Sorry Tom to hear the similarities with you...is that your current wife in your avatar? 

I might be making the odd post but wish everybody a happy Xmas and a happy snowy healthy New Year!...well healthy New Year anyway I was pushing it a bit far!...

On another note isn't this weather just dire 😞

That is very sad news

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Morning all,

And a Happy Christmas Eve to you all. Up early with my Wife, before she started her early morning shift. Poor thing has to work tomorrow morning too, someone has to bring home, the "pigs in blankets"!!

She will then have to cook the Christmas dinner, bless her, so we'll be eating quite late. I'm not allowed near the cooker, after my Stroke. Mind you she is a far better cook than I am, bless her.

Regards,

Tom. :hi::santa-emoji:

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Merry Christmas everyone,my plans for today already sorted,take a short drive to mum and dads,a nice stroll with the old man up to the high st,pay some money in the bank,then its time to get dad a pint or two,stroll back,then a big family takeaway with everyone tonight,before the festivities.

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Mine will include a trip to see my mum (103) in the home where she is. Will be able to chat to her even though she hasn’t a clue who I am or why I am there. Just the shell of my dear mother who left years ago. It should get me in a good mood for seeing the rest of the family. Ho hum.

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I worked Xmas for seven years on the trot, nothing but admiration for anyone working over Xmas. 

it somehow made Xmas a little better though. getting home after a 12 hour shift to the kids who were now tired out, dinner on the table and the relaxing evening where i could unwind with a nice tipple, all before getting up at 4 a.m and doing it all again the next day 🙄

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Merry Xmas eve! Don'r have many plans for today; I've opened some of my presents already, but will open all the rest tomorrow. I'm very sorry about your loss @Froze were the Days, sending you good health and hugs.

We are having Christmas dinner tonight too. Classic roast turkey, sprouts, carrots, stuffing, pigs in blankets, etc. We have plenty of buffet food for tomorrow.

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A nice day here, plenty of blue sky and weak sunshine. Still loads of big puddles everywhere, hopefully there’ll be a let up in the Atlantic systems that have featured so strongly, lately.

Wishing everyone on here a very Merry Christmas 🎄

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Mist has cleared with sun and clear sky.  Feeling chilly though.

Currently temp: 6C

Wind:  SE 1, gusting to 2 

Pressure: 1034

Humidity: 87%

Visibility: Good

Happy Christmas  :santa-emoji:

 

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Some freezing fog tonight could make things look quite festive tomorrow 

 

Merry Christmas all!!! 

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1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

October Fog Index 6 fancy pants weather models 0

To be fair the weather models have  never shown any real deep cold, it’s only peoples interpretation of them that has. 

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