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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018


Blessed Weather

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Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

Just wanted to post this up. It's from local Meteorologist, Ian Currie's Frosted Earth, website:

http://www.frostedearth.co.uk/

Quote:

"For the Week ahead from 8th Feb. 2019.

After a very unsettled Weekend it does look like a drier prospect for the week ahead with high- pressure close to us. This means that it will be quite cold at night with some frosts but up to around 5C to 6C by day and there will be some sunshine. Winds much lighter than of late.

It could become somewhat colder if the area of high pressure transfers northwards and the wind turns more to the east so I will be monitoring this for the following week when wintery weather may affect us so look out for my updates."

Regards,

Tom :hi:

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

One of the worst winters I can remember ( SO FAR ! )

Most of the time it's been dank/wet and very very windy, and then the hopefulness of snow and we get a bit of light snow that never settles!

Glad to see the back of this :(

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

Apparently, the downwelling is still going down the well:cc_confused: it's been downwelling for so long, not sure it can down well any further

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
11 minutes ago, Essex Easterly. said:

Before the downwelling ends it'll end up in australia, and they will damn well end up stealing our cold  

It will be their winter rather than ours by then anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

Run of the mill winter storm for sure. We have similar every winter. The only reason a fair number of trees have come down is that trees grow old and die and crash to earth naturally, sometimes with little prompting. This moderately strong blow was enough.

I'd say we haven't had a major winter storm for many years in our patch (maybe an unnaturally long "lull"?) Possibly 2002 but I'd go back to the Burns' Day Storm of 1990. At that point, in 1990, it was our third big storm in under 15 years. 

Storms just after Christmas 1999 caused gusts of over 100mph in Paris (Storms Lothar and Martin?) Paris is possibly slightly less 'favoured" for major windstorms than us. When we get our next major windstorm, some of you will be shocked, if you think the last 24 hours were out of the ordinary. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
43 minutes ago, Steve C said:

Run of the mill winter storm for sure. We have similar every winter. The only reason a fair number of trees have come down is that trees grow old and die and crash to earth naturally, sometimes with little prompting. This moderately strong blow was enough.

I'd say we haven't had a major winter storm for many years in our patch (maybe an unnaturally long "lull"?) Possibly 2002 but I'd go back to the Burns' Day Storm of 1990. At that point, in 1990, it was our third big storm in under 15 years. 

Storms just after Christmas 1999 caused gusts of over 100mph in Paris (Storms Lothar and Martin?) Paris is possibly slightly less 'favoured" for major windstorms than us. When we get our next major windstorm, some of you will be shocked, if you think the last 24 hours were out of the ordinary. 

 

Tbh I think it has a lot to do with the dry summer too. A lot of trees got weakened by that. 

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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Tbh I think it has a lot to do with the dry summer too. A lot of trees got weakened by that. 

Yes, Alexis. Cannot have helped. Didn't think of that factor tbh.☺️

I was going to post an illustrative photo from Spring, where a large branch crashed onto a cul de sac road I was returning along. I'd originally made the outward leg less than an hour earlier. It made me wonder if I could get back - a large hard to shift bough. This was very early in the morning and I know I was the only vehicle and no-one else was about. Light winds. Made me think a bit!

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Hi peeps

Hope you all are ok and having a wonderful Saturday. Not been a bad day here in Walthamstow after last nights winds, it felt quite pleasant in the sun. 

Looks like tonight and tomorrow we have some heavy rain coming our way. The latest metoffice update mentions nothing wintriness tomorrow although temperatures will be 6 deg. 

Then next week we may see some spring like weather where the sun comes out. We will be under the influence of high pressure. Unfortunately nothing wintry showing as yet, but where this high pressure will go is the big question mark. However just looking at temperatures across Europe which are not dramatically low,  if this high does go North the question is will there be enough cold air to tap into. Time is ticking along and the chances for us to get a noteworthy freeze are becoming less and less as the days go on. 

What a winter it has been one that was meant to have so much potential due to outside factors, but sadly one that has not delivered what us coldies have waited for, We need a dramatic turnaround in the next few weeks to make up this winter. Sadly without this it certainly won't be one of those that is remembered for the good reasons. 

Wishing you all a lovely evening and thank you to all those interesting posts on here.

we may not see it this time but the search for our winter wonderland will never end.

regards

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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

E17, I'd be happy with either a cold spell, with snow, or even an early taste of Spring, with frost in the morning and mild sunshine afterwards. Both good for my soul. 

North Sea haar, fret, gloom, I'm depressed typing it!

Cheers for the optimistic post!

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
20 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Hi peeps

Hope you all are ok and having a wonderful Saturday. Not been a bad day here in Walthamstow after last nights winds, it felt quite pleasant in the sun. 

Looks like tonight and tomorrow we have some heavy rain coming our way. The latest metoffice update mentions nothing wintriness tomorrow although temperatures will be 6 deg. 

Then next week we may see some spring like weather where the sun comes out. We will be under the influence of high pressure. Unfortunately nothing wintry showing as yet, but where this high pressure will go is the big question mark. However just looking at temperatures across Europe which are not dramatically low,  if this high does go North the question is will there be enough cold air to tap into. Time is ticking along and the chances for us to get a noteworthy freeze are becoming less and less as the days go on. 

What a winter it has been one that was meant to have so much potential due to outside factors, but sadly one that has not delivered what us coldies have waited for, We need a dramatic turnaround in the next few weeks to make up this winter. Sadly without this it certainly won't be one of those that is remembered for the good reasons. 

Wishing you all a lovely evening and thank you to all those interesting posts on here.

we may not see it this time but the search for our winter wonderland will never end.

regards

If it goes nw then yes there is. Straight from the pole.

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Let's keep our fingers crossed and hope it plays in our favour. I would prefer the winds to be from a NE direction or E as this is best for our region. Any snow showers have.a better chance of penetrating inland rather than s Northerly where it is more of the coastal counties that favour better. However having said that if there is a trough coming down from the north then all parts can favour. 

Thr only worrying thing now is the question of time, which is running out so we need something positive to start showing on the horizon in the next two weeks,

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Posted
  • Location: St Leonards-on-Sea, East Sussex. 81 metres asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms.
  • Location: St Leonards-on-Sea, East Sussex. 81 metres asl

About the weather. It's been another breezy day here in the Hastings area, albeit with some reasonable spells of hazy sunshine. It felt quite pleasant out of the wind with a Tmax of 10.0c and winds gusting to 40mph locally.

Now for something that has annoyed me. The sea state has been quite rough for a number of days here, not surprising given the fact it's been a blowing a gale or near gale for much of the past week.

However that didn't deter 2 'rufty tufty' types from setting out in their kayaks earlier today despite the conditions. As a result of their inconsiderate foolishness the lifeboats from both Hastings and Eastbourne were launched, and were joined by a rescue helicopter to assist their safe return to shore.

The RNLI is my charity of choice. I hope the idiots they went out to rescue today make a huge donation.

Rant mode off now.

 

Edited by SenlacJack
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

Belting it down with rain in Bexhill atm

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
6 minutes ago, yamkin said:

CFS 12Z Is Showing The BFTE. Long Way Off

anim_fbo4.gif

anim_zmj4.gif

Forever being pushed back this year!

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Posted
  • Location: Northiam, East Sussex, 70m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Northiam, East Sussex, 70m asl

Rain rain and more rain, although I refuse to chuck the towel in on another winter, I do think it's going to take something of epic proportions to salvage anything, yes ive seen falling snow 3 times, and it's laid, but it's not lasted at all, and after all the tele-communications, background signals, low solar minima, blah blah blah, for some unknown reason it just hasn't, yet, delivered what we all hoped and craved

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Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
47 minutes ago, Don said:

Forever being pushed back this year!

Let's hope the weather pattern holds out with good heights & produces the goods which will allow the models to be right 

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Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

Morning all,

Again , overnight Model runs not that inspiring. Expect a lot of toy throwing and dummy spitting again, when the masses awake 

The floor of the Model thread room, could be quite a hazardous place this morning. Be careful, don't trip over a soft toy or slip on any saliva!!

Looks like Models (and MeteoGroup for that matter) aren't keen to build High Pressure, to the North/North East of the U.K. They seem to want to keep it just to our S.E. Strong arm of the Northern Jet Stream, not allowing those heights to build, further North.

             GFS 19th FEB (t216)

image.thumb.png.96bae3afcefad98f488b7a3b354b1225.png

            ECM 19th FEB (t216)

image.thumb.png.74f090df55ec3eec0ac535fc4648d7ae.png

The 00z GFS (PARA) run on the other hand, has a more encouraging look about it with High Pressure to our East, trying to throw a ridge towards southern Greenland.

       GFS (PARA) 19th FEB (t216)

image.thumb.png.8d8102111ae775dcc24c43df5c1e7dda.png

I just want to remind members where we were, on this date last year:

Ok, so the Synoptic profile to the East , quite a bit different with a Siberian High, entering the picture, Stage Right. But a strong Northern arm of the Jet Stream, as well.

             SUN.10th FEB.2018

image.thumb.png.5746e70d4d2e2a0baece0d1ee7574e06.png

Roll forward t216 (9 days). Not quite there yet but beginning to look more promising. Atlantic starting to hit the buffers and heights ridging N.E, towards Scandinavia.

image.thumb.png.1ba6e9a71f578bf71a200cf032e826a5.png

Finally, on 22nd Feb., the "Beast", started to flex its muscles.

image.thumb.png.963e015c81b6c15752c955ecb9d1f0fc.png

Now, I'm not suggesting we're on the cusp of something similar to February/March last year. Just that it's way too early, for all these premature "Obituaries" on Winter 2018/19!!

I certainly shan't be "throwing the towel", in yet. :nonono:Way too early!!

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

 

 

Edited by TomSE12
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Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL

Into double figures next weekend, might be a garden tidy weekend

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