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Blessed Weather

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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9 minutes ago, Reefseeker said:

Agreed, I was walking through campus at 4pm and couldn't believe how cold it felt in a biting wind; not quite the 10 degrees of the BBC forecast this morning. Raining now - after my third lecture to my masters students it's the first time we haven't emerged from the classroom to find snow outside. How is that cat of yours - missing the snowflakes to chase?

My cat just sleeps a lot in this grey dark damp winter weather, but when it snows he seems to come to life and want to be out in it catching flakes like they’re moths.

drove around the M25 from J14 to J6 from work this evening and there was some low cloud / fog on approach and around Reigate Hill, didn’t seem to slow some down though, despite reduced vis, some more concerned about getting home as quick as possible!

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The 12z ECM completes the set with all Models going for a transient Northerly now, on Sun.10th Feb.

           12z ECM SUN.10th FEB.

image.thumb.png.b50e66f487fee15b6e2462def90df0ba.png

image.thumb.png.ead66c5963ffcf38d251b3ce64522051.png

A definite chance of a rain > snow event depicted here on  the 12z GFS run, for NOON on SUN.10th FEB, as a brief Arctic incursion plunges down from the North .

image.thumb.png.5fa70864325f4f41f9cff64946f82580.png

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

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44 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Can't believe it's a week ago since I had my first sleet shower of the epic cool spell. 

Ah the memories. 

According to the BBC we should all be relieved that the bitter cold has gone and despite the rain, at least it will be mild now

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The 10th driest January on record in East Anglia according to provisional figures, with less than 50% of the 1981 - 2010 average rainfall. Although I see the area around Pete's home town of Beccles managed to come in as the wettest part of the Region with near average ppn. 😄

335014689_EastJan2019.thumb.jpg.0569dd1c8305ed6337fabca624655a3c.jpg

With thanks to Dan Holley, Weatherquest. https://twitter.com/danholley_/status/1092834658084155393

 

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So cold today.....that wind!!  Can we fast forward to spring please (or have a total snowfest!) x

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7 hours ago, Badgers01 said:

CFS has been showing these charts 3 weeks hence since about the first week of December!

Don't forget, the Met Office also showed 'cold E/NE winds' for a few weeks as well on the LRF website !!

Edited by yamkin

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12 minutes ago, yamkin said:

Don't forget, the Met Office also showed 'cold E/NE winds' for a few weeks as well on the LRF website !!

I think the Meto long ranger has been sketchy too !

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Interesting CFS 12Z Model BFTE Set Up

anim_lcs4.gif

anim_uoj8.gif

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Thick fog/low cloud here (been present for 24 hours now) and not too warm at 5c 

Windy too and see from the radar there’s rain incoming. 

Edited by lottiekent
Temp incorrect

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44 minutes ago, yamkin said:

Interesting CFS 12Z Model BFTE Set Up

anim_lcs4.gif

anim_uoj8.gif

In CSF we trust.

It's more likely that Lord Lucan will be found alive and well somewhere in Greenland. I am done chasing phantom north easterlies- unless they are showing at t-48 on the models during the last week of February😁

 

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Noticed that the River Loddon had burst its banks in Shinfield on Tuesday morning (5th February).

Can only assume that this is because of snow melt upstream as the river runs from Basingstoke thorough Swallowfield, Shinfield, Twyford and then into the Thames. 

Won't take much rain to add to flood risk so worth watching what happens PPN wise over the next few days. Not high enough to cause any damage as it is within its floodplains, but suspect the dry months followed by heavy snow upstream have had a sudden effect.

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Morning all,

Up really early again. I still want to "bang the drum" about a possible, transient rain>snow scenario on Sunday.

Although, Chris Fawkes (Weather For The Week Ahead), made no mention of snow, back-edge or otherwise, during his Forecast.

I'm still finding the 00z Model Runs, interesting in this respect though. The 00z UKMO Forecast chart for Midnight, Sun.10th Feb, shows a "wave", about to run eastwards, along the Channel/S.England.

image.thumb.png.e2c6058aed204521387f3f63d6e0791d.png

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This will have the affect of ushering in colder 850 temps, from the N.W. See the UKMO FAX chart for NOON, on Sunday, below:

 image.thumb.png.a2dd657e2959df92f7aefc22485c5e45.png

You can see that feature running along the Channel. Colder air is about to flood south, behind the occluded front, sat over N.England. This rain>snow event is by no means a certainty and that Chris Fawkes Forecast, I spoke about above, made no mention of it. But I certainly think it's worth "keeping an eye on". See below the 00z GFS ppn chart, for NOON on Sunday. You can just make out that "hatched" (wintry ppn) area, about to enter our Region:

image.thumb.png.2d13f065e2e236a0fd4dc3fd24a8886f.png

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

 

Edited by TomSE12

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00z ECM, follows the other overnight runs with a very brief Northerly, Sunday into Monday. It's also showing, a Channel "runner":

image.thumb.png.b28e734075241f49521fa22c8bd59bdb.png

image.thumb.png.3d3e7501bf756184e3ab7a0ceb221ca7.png

This feature certainly needs watching, as it introduces much colder air into the "mix". If there is still some ppn around at this time, we may experience a short period of back-edge snow.

Although way off in la la land, the ECM run ends with a "Murr Sausage", close to Scandinavia!!

image.thumb.png.beaa37b48a1ae44f95594b9f586665bc.png

image.thumb.png.60a398a32be63fd407a5a7540c68dc42.png

Hopefully a sign of things to come, as we enter the second half of February!!

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

 

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What a stunning morning - sunrise and mists combo, a day for photography not the Big Smoke. 5c this morn, thought it was supposed to be nearer 11c. 

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Yes indeed. A very springlike 9c now in Wimbledon with a clear sky. Met said it was going to be a wet dreary morning. No surprises there! 🙂

The Parakeets that have taken up residence in my neighbours plane tree are obviously enjoying it. Making a right old raket. 😁 

 

 

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13 hours ago, lassie23 said:

According to the BBC we should all be relieved that the bitter cold has gone and despite the rain, at least it will be mild now

Fred made it through the night but this bad news 😥😥😘

IMG_20190206_074308.jpg

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1 hour ago, stewfox said:

Fred made it through the night but this bad news 😥😥😘

IMG_20190206_074308.jpg

hang on in there Fred, only another two weeks before the next cool spell

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Warnings out in force for Wind and no not after the midweek curry...

 

A period of very strong and gusty winds is likely on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Strongest winds will be across South West England and South and West Wales late evening, with gusts of 60 to 70 mph on coasts and 50 to 60 mph inland. Elsewhere winds will be strongest after midnight, with gusts of 60 mph on coasts and 50 mph inland before easing during Thursday morning.

Meto Warning

Edited by Kent Blizzard

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ECM & CFS Are Both Going For Easterly Winds. Long Way Off, So Let's See If This Trend Continues

anim_wij6.gif

anim_rfg8.gif

Double Click On ECM Image To Run The GIF

Edited by yamkin

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So the brainless people in the news reckon we have an arctic cyclone coming ,is that like the hottest summer ever which we did not get last year.Must admit it was a good summer and would like the same again this year.

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Looks like we are in for some inclement weather over the next 4 days even Met warnings ... strong winds and moderate rain ... Anyone interested ?

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47 minutes ago, Brassmonkeylily said:

Looks like we are in for some inclement weather over the next 4 days even Met warnings ... strong winds and moderate rain ... Anyone interested ?

Nope I hate the wind.

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55 minutes ago, Brassmonkeylily said:

Looks like we are in for some inclement weather over the next 4 days even Met warnings ... strong winds and moderate rain ... Anyone interested ?

I love hearing the wind and rain, especially at night.  Prefer having 'interesting weather' rather than dull, grey and mild!  The BBC have weather warnings for the next four days! Interesting that Sunday may give us a rain to snow event....however, think we are going to need to wait for a few weeks to see anything really promising.  Always hopeful 😍

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Only like the wind if I can watch the waves crash on the coast, remember once going down to Newhaven in East Sussex in March to photograph the sea crashing over the seawall / lighthouse, was good fun until the sea begun to flood the car park next to the harbour.

Rain, well we always need plenty of that to keep reservoirs, rivers, groundwater topped up after what was a rather dry 2018, particularly summer then December-Jan. So don't mind more rain.

Edited by Nick F

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