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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018


Blessed Weather

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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

Sustained cold snowy northerlies are very rare for my location. 2010 was the only one I can remember - I can't remember back to 1970. Half the problem is that northerlies just don't sustain - they become modified by warm sectors etc. I never have great excitement for them. 

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
33 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Surprised how cold it's been today, given the southerly wind, 6-7C this afternoon but feeling much colder in the wind.

I was thinking that, so much CH for mild. Must still be cold in France.

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Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

Evening all,

All of the 12z Model runs are continuing with the theme of a brief, "Dwarf From The North", scenario. The 12z UKMO run for, Sunday 10th February, being pretty representative of this evolution.

         12Z UKMO SUN.10th FEB.

image.thumb.png.da9a94c9065e13df2158fadb0a1798b6.png

image.thumb.png.97901349bee8d506bcbfc054b9ea5193.png

If this kind of scenario came to fruition, we could well be looking at another, rain > snow event.

Thereafter, as Ian Currie suggested to me the other night, the weather looks to settle down with High Pressure building in, close to the U.K. 

Over to you ECM.

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

Edited by TomSE12
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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey

was bitter in Weybridge today wind blowing down the high st felt like an oncoming easterly !

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
2 hours ago, leedsnowfan said:

Nasty Gales coming in Friday Night....touching 70mph??!!

I just fixed my fence from the last windy spell

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I just fixed my fence from the last windy spell

Confucius he say...Man who fart near fence, may have panel in the weeble...

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Posted
  • Location: Surbiton, Surrey (home), Uxbridge, Middx (work)
  • Location: Surbiton, Surrey (home), Uxbridge, Middx (work)
1 hour ago, Nick F said:

Surprised how cold it's been today, given the southerly wind, 6-7C this afternoon but feeling much colder in the wind.

Agreed, I was walking through campus at 4pm and couldn't believe how cold it felt in a biting wind; not quite the 10 degrees of the BBC forecast this morning. Raining now - after my third lecture to my masters students it's the first time we haven't emerged from the classroom to find snow outside. How is that cat of yours - missing the snowflakes to chase?

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
9 minutes ago, Reefseeker said:

Agreed, I was walking through campus at 4pm and couldn't believe how cold it felt in a biting wind; not quite the 10 degrees of the BBC forecast this morning. Raining now - after my third lecture to my masters students it's the first time we haven't emerged from the classroom to find snow outside. How is that cat of yours - missing the snowflakes to chase?

My cat just sleeps a lot in this grey dark damp winter weather, but when it snows he seems to come to life and want to be out in it catching flakes like they’re moths.

drove around the M25 from J14 to J6 from work this evening and there was some low cloud / fog on approach and around Reigate Hill, didn’t seem to slow some down though, despite reduced vis, some more concerned about getting home as quick as possible!

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Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

The 12z ECM completes the set with all Models going for a transient Northerly now, on Sun.10th Feb.

           12z ECM SUN.10th FEB.

image.thumb.png.b50e66f487fee15b6e2462def90df0ba.png

image.thumb.png.ead66c5963ffcf38d251b3ce64522051.png

A definite chance of a rain > snow event depicted here on  the 12z GFS run, for NOON on SUN.10th FEB, as a brief Arctic incursion plunges down from the North .

image.thumb.png.5fa70864325f4f41f9cff64946f82580.png

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
44 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Can't believe it's a week ago since I had my first sleet shower of the epic cool spell. 

Ah the memories. 

According to the BBC we should all be relieved that the bitter cold has gone and despite the rain, at least it will be mild now

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

The 10th driest January on record in East Anglia according to provisional figures, with less than 50% of the 1981 - 2010 average rainfall. Although I see the area around Pete's home town of Beccles managed to come in as the wettest part of the Region with near average ppn. 

335014689_EastJan2019.thumb.jpg.0569dd1c8305ed6337fabca624655a3c.jpg

With thanks to Dan Holley, Weatherquest. https://twitter.com/danholley_/status/1092834658084155393

 

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Posted
  • Location: Biggin Hill, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: 'Big talk' weather....:-)
  • Location: Biggin Hill, Kent

So cold today.....that wind!!  Can we fast forward to spring please (or have a total snowfest!) x

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Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
7 hours ago, Badgers01 said:

CFS has been showing these charts 3 weeks hence since about the first week of December!

Don't forget, the Met Office also showed 'cold E/NE winds' for a few weeks as well on the LRF website !!

Edited by yamkin
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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
12 minutes ago, yamkin said:

Don't forget, the Met Office also showed 'cold E/NE winds' for a few weeks as well on the LRF website !!

I think the Meto long ranger has been sketchy too !

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Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL

Thick fog/low cloud here (been present for 24 hours now) and not too warm at 5c 

Windy too and see from the radar there’s rain incoming. 

Edited by lottiekent
Temp incorrect
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Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
44 minutes ago, yamkin said:

Interesting CFS 12Z Model BFTE Set Up

anim_lcs4.gif

anim_uoj8.gif

In CSF we trust.

It's more likely that Lord Lucan will be found alive and well somewhere in Greenland. I am done chasing phantom north easterlies- unless they are showing at t-48 on the models during the last week of February

 

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago

Noticed that the River Loddon had burst its banks in Shinfield on Tuesday morning (5th February).

Can only assume that this is because of snow melt upstream as the river runs from Basingstoke thorough Swallowfield, Shinfield, Twyford and then into the Thames. 

Won't take much rain to add to flood risk so worth watching what happens PPN wise over the next few days. Not high enough to cause any damage as it is within its floodplains, but suspect the dry months followed by heavy snow upstream have had a sudden effect.

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Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

Morning all,

Up really early again. I still want to "bang the drum" about a possible, transient rain>snow scenario on Sunday.

Although, Chris Fawkes (Weather For The Week Ahead), made no mention of snow, back-edge or otherwise, during his Forecast.

I'm still finding the 00z Model Runs, interesting in this respect though. The 00z UKMO Forecast chart for Midnight, Sun.10th Feb, shows a "wave", about to run eastwards, along the Channel/S.England.

image.thumb.png.e2c6058aed204521387f3f63d6e0791d.png

image.thumb.png.cde7c1e052a94bd37903cd29a4152d4d.png

This will have the affect of ushering in colder 850 temps, from the N.W. See the UKMO FAX chart for NOON, on Sunday, below:

 image.thumb.png.a2dd657e2959df92f7aefc22485c5e45.png

You can see that feature running along the Channel. Colder air is about to flood south, behind the occluded front, sat over N.England. This rain>snow event is by no means a certainty and that Chris Fawkes Forecast, I spoke about above, made no mention of it. But I certainly think it's worth "keeping an eye on". See below the 00z GFS ppn chart, for NOON on Sunday. You can just make out that "hatched" (wintry ppn) area, about to enter our Region:

image.thumb.png.2d13f065e2e236a0fd4dc3fd24a8886f.png

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

 

Edited by TomSE12
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Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

00z ECM, follows the other overnight runs with a very brief Northerly, Sunday into Monday. It's also showing, a Channel "runner":

image.thumb.png.b28e734075241f49521fa22c8bd59bdb.png

image.thumb.png.3d3e7501bf756184e3ab7a0ceb221ca7.png

This feature certainly needs watching, as it introduces much colder air into the "mix". If there is still some ppn around at this time, we may experience a short period of back-edge snow.

Although way off in la la land, the ECM run ends with a "Murr Sausage", close to Scandinavia!!

image.thumb.png.beaa37b48a1ae44f95594b9f586665bc.png

image.thumb.png.60a398a32be63fd407a5a7540c68dc42.png

Hopefully a sign of things to come, as we enter the second half of February!!

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

 

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Posted
  • Location: St Neots, previously Billericay & Brentwood
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, gales, all extreme weather really!
  • Location: St Neots, previously Billericay & Brentwood

What a stunning morning - sunrise and mists combo, a day for photography not the Big Smoke. 5c this morn, thought it was supposed to be nearer 11c. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London

Yes indeed. A very springlike 9c now in Wimbledon with a clear sky. Met said it was going to be a wet dreary morning. No surprises there!

The Parakeets that have taken up residence in my neighbours plane tree are obviously enjoying it. Making a right old raket.  

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
13 hours ago, lassie23 said:

According to the BBC we should all be relieved that the bitter cold has gone and despite the rain, at least it will be mild now

Fred made it through the night but this bad news

IMG_20190206_074308.jpg

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