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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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I was un aware of a new amber warning for this area. Clearly its snowing further west so maybe the warning is a little missplaced?

 

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37 minutes ago, WhiteFox said:

Front is definitely edging slowly back ESE to SE. All frozen PPN here in RG7 so maybe a slim chance for those further south and east?

 

Screenshot_2019-02-01-12-01-49-416_tv.netweather.netweatherradar.png

I disagree. I just did a little experiment by tracking the eastern edge with my cursor and my conclusion is that whilst the boundaries are not 100% static, generally it's not budging. Eastern edge is pretty well Oxford, as it was some hours ago. It seems to be merging with the precipitation further east, though, which is moving NW.

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I’m hoping for a last hurrah tonight - lying snow the next day would be nice but just being able to wander about in a heavy flurry is all I’m really after. That reward was cruelly absent from our area last night - it was typical of the sort of extreme events the south east corner of the U.K. seems to be good for - the delay that occurs literally at the moment everything should kick off which just leaves you waiting and waiting and then it’s all too late.

Radars were so misleading last night too - should have shown the gap over us for most of the evening but they persisted to show PPN right overhead - which certainty wasn’t the case 50% of the time.

We did get a gentle flurry early on, then at some point in the night possibly something heavier but that was at about 4am (Dunno was asleep).

Would be lovely to have a heavy flurry moment before the winter is out, although quite alarmingly our winters seem to be leaking regularly into mid-spring these days, which is both a blessing and a curse 😬😃

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1 minute ago, Weather Boy said:

I disagree. I just did a little experiment by tracking the eastern edge with my cursor and my conclusion is that whilst the boundaries are not 100% static, generally it's not budging. Eastern edge is pretty well Oxford, as it was some hours ago. It seems to be merging with the precipitation further east, though, which is moving NW.

Yes, I tend to agree now. It did look like some movement earlier, but I think we're just getting caught by occasional pulses. Must be getting a hammering to the north of Reading up in the hills right now. Anyone up Nettlebed or Watlington direction?

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Just now, Jemma Croton said:

17cm now in Swindon 😱😱

Wow, that is impressive, hope everyone there is enjoying it 🙂

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Just now, pinball wizard said:

Wow, that is impressive, hope everyone there is enjoying it 🙂

We’re stuck indoors until it stops. 2 of my kids have autism with sensory issues and can’t bear snow falling on their faces etc. 

Steve the dog is loving it though

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Good afternoon from Brighton!

20190201_121756.jpg

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3 minutes ago, yamkin said:

 

I have to question this guys knowledge.  Doesn't the MJO only go up to phase 8?

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Snow been washed away by rain here only got 3cm here overnight. Another useless cold spell 

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Just now, Jemma Croton said:

We’re stuck indoors until it stops. 2 of my kids have autism with sensory issues and can’t bear snow falling on their faces etc. 

Steve the dog is loving it though

Understandable, I volunteer at a special needs school and know they can have sensitivities to things like that. That said, i'm not overly keen on snow falling on my face either, love to watch it falling and love to go outside in it once it's stopped though 😛

 

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1 minute ago, yamkin said:

 

The jury remains out. Systems ejecting from the PV over Canada are running into "treacle" (borrowed the similie from Tamara!), so recently when models have shown low pressure systems barreling across the Atlantic putting us in a milder flow they get stuck and disrupt due to lack of eastward momentum.

Looks like we may see a genuine warm up this week courtesy of the ultra-cold air that spilled through North America, but what next? Until we see the PV checking out of Hotel Canada I suspect the best we can manage is more of the same as we've had recently.

Models will continue to show flirtations with Scandi highs, but they are a threading the needle type set up and require @nick sussex to analyse the shortwaves to death in order to land.

More chance as PV weakens naturally through February, but until we see that PV verifiably shift to a better position we are in stalemate.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

I have to question this guys knowledge.  Doesn't the MJO only go up to phase 8?

makes it sound more dramatic though doesn't it? 

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3 minutes ago, Johnp said:

I have to question this guys knowledge.  Doesn't the MJO only go up to phase 8?

He trades in wind (don't even ask how that works!) so he has a vested interest.

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5 minutes ago, Jemma Croton said:

 

Steve the dog is loving it though

woof

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5 minutes ago, Jemma Croton said:

We’re stuck indoors until it stops. 2 of my kids have autism with sensory issues and can’t bear snow falling on their faces etc. 

Steve the dog is loving it though

My daughter has ASD so I understand where you're coming from. Still, she enjoys looking at it and finds the shape of the snowflakes fascinating!

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Quite bizarre these huge model  differences for overnight .

If you’re looking for hope then the ICON which is the least interested is definitely wrong as it’s view of today’s precip has already hit the buffers .

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19 minutes ago, DAVE_ALLEN said:

I was un aware of a new amber warning for this area. Clearly its snowing further west so maybe the warning is a little missplaced?

 

IMG_5111.thumb.jpeg.8a74f0cfc44a24eed2a5aa6f40c4725c.jpeg

Heavy snow now . Just shows you never know with snow 

IMG_20190201_125317.jpg

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Just now, stewfox said:

Heavy snow now . Just shows you never know with snow 

IMG_20190201_125317.jpg

I think the amber warning has been judged about right. Clearly heaviest PPN is in the NW of the warning area, but when it was issued it was probably a close-run situation as to where the PPN would stall.

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All turning a bit sleety now in north London as that band pushes north. Hopefully with some heavier pulses we can get the snow back. 

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17 minutes ago, Jemma Croton said:

17cm now in Swindon 😱😱

Told ya 😉

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Hmm! Interesting .

The latest radar returns point to the more bullish models re rain turning back to snow  and edging se being more likely .

Edited by nick sussex

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