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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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37 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

A 6% probability of snow on Christmas Day, equates to about 16/1, in Betting Odds terms. This double the Odds that are on offer, at the moment. If London were to see some falling snow in the weeks leading up to Christmas, you'll see those prohibitive Odds shorten further!! We've all seen the headlines, in that scenario, "Bookies slash Odds on a White Xmas" "Flurries of snow, leads to flurries of bets." Bookmaker's are aware that, average "Joe Public" doesn't have much comprehension about probability and Betting Odds. See below, another part of that PM, I kindly received from Kirkcaldy Weather. This from Wikipedia and a link to some Met Office information, re. White Christmases.

Quote:

"In the United Kingdom, white Christmases were more common from the 1550s to the 1850s, during the Little Ice Age; the last frost fair on the River Thames, however, was in the winter of 1813–14.[13] The shift from the Julian to the Gregorian calendar in 1752 also slightly reduced the chance of a white Christmas, effectively moving Christmas earlier in the winter.[14] An "official" white Christmas is defined by the Met Office as "one snowflake to be observed falling in the 24 hours of 25 December somewhere in the UK",[14] but formerly the snow had to be observed at the Met Office building in London.[14] By the newer measure, over half of all years have white Christmases, with snow being observed 38 times in the 54 years to 2015.[14] A more "traditional" idea of snow-covered ground is less common, however, with only 4 occasions in the 51 years to 2015 reporting snow on the ground at 9am at more than 40% of weather stations.[14]

Although most places in the UK do tend to see some snow in the winter, it generally falls in January and February. However white Christmases do occur, on average every 6 years.[13]

Christmas 2009 was a white Christmas in some parts of Britain,[15] with thick lying snow which easterly winds had brought over the previous week. Travel over much of Britain was badly affected by ice and snow on roads, and was made more slippery by partial daytime thaw followed by overnight refreezing. It was the first white Christmas anywhere in the United Kingdom since 2004.[16] :

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/precipitation/snow/white-christmas

If ok with the Forum Hosts, would like to post up my "realistic" Odds on a White Christmas for London, once the "big day" appears on Forecast Models radar. As we know GFS extends out to t384, which is 13th of December at the moment. According to GFS, mild weather holds sway, throughout the run.

if it's ok with the Forum Hosts would like to give my "Probability Odds" a couple of times a week, until the day itself. Similar to "Shake a Santa".

Regards,

Tom.  

Tom,was 2010 not an even more widespread white Christmas, even in parts of London? No snow fell  on the day but there was snow on the ground from the previous week.It had turned a very slate grey colour at that stage mind. As happens in London. 

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judging by the model output this morning, the OFI has gone into a 3-0 lead

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5 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

judging by the model output this morning, the OFI has gone into a 3-0 lead

That the same model thread who up to a week ago were saying "at least the Atlantic is dead for the foreseeable''? Goodness me!  🙂

 

 

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1 minute ago, Wimbledon88 said:

That the same model thread who up to a week ago were saying "at least the Atlantic is dead for the foreseeable''? Goodness me!  🙂

 

 

Do they actually look at the models from the right month and year lol

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Misty cold start to the day in Central London. The Eye was shrouded in a mist and the red lights made for a dramatic glow around it. Big Ben not only covered by scaffold, but the top f the tower was concealed by the mist.

Edited by MAF
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Our boiler packed up a week ago so we’ve been pretty cold since then with only borrowed oil radiators to keep warm. New boiler gets installed today and can’t wait. Why do boilers never break down in the summer?

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Hi W88,

Yes, in respect to snow on the ground, 2010 did seem very "Christmassy" but the criteria of the bet, wasn't met!! No snow fell on Xmas Day, so the bet was "lost". The same thing happened on Xmas Day 1981, after a bitterly cold, snowy couple of weeks with thick snow on the ground, no snow fell on the day. So again, any bet would've been "lost". As I stated in a post above, I walked home from my parents home in Bromley to back home in Camberwell, S.E.London, that year. The snow was around 4 inches deep and the distance of 8 and a half miles, took me nigh on 4 hours in the thick snow. I was chilled to the bone, when I arrived home!! :cold:

Again, Christmas Day 1962 was bitterly cold but dry. The snow started falling on Boxing Day. So again, any bet would've been "lost" I was 7 at the time and have vague memories of the 1962/63, amazing Winter. See the synoptic chart for Noon,Xmas Day 1962 below:

archives-1962-12-25-12-0.png

For quite a time before Xmas, bitterly cold air had flooded down from the north of Scandinavia, to affect the Eastern part of Europe. There then was a strong rise of pressure over that area, a couple of days before Xmas Day, the central pressure of this high reached 1050 mbs, it then started to retrogress to Greenland and the rest is history, as they say!!

Snow extended south, down across the country, on Boxing Day. Just want to reproduce a paragraph from Ian Currie's, Kent County Weather Book, re. the onset of the snowfall on that Boxing Day.

Quote:

"It was a calm, grey, bitter afternoon with an earlier sharp frost still coating everything in an icy mantle. Just after three o'clock a few snow-flakes floated harmlessly to earth - advance guards of a more potent force to follow. Within a few hours all Kent was thickly covered and, as the light faded on this Boxing Day 1962, lawns and village greens would not be visible again until early March". 

Great stuff!! My Father worked on the Railways at the time, maintaining tracks, tunnels and bridges. The following Saturday evening, Dad was working on a line towards London. Dad and his colleagues had to abandon work at around 9.30 PM, as heavy snowfall accompanied by a strengthening easterly made further work, impossible. Dad eventually got a train at around 5 AM to return home, where we lived in Hayes, just south of Bromley, Kent. The snowfall added appreciably to the Boxing Day fall and was drifting badly. Dad's train could get no further than Elmers End, as the snow was drifting up onto the platform, incredible!! Dad had to continue the rest of the 3 and a half mile journey to home in Hayes by foot, up to his knees in snow, at times. It took him between three and four hours!! See chart below, at the height of that blizzard:

archives-1962-12-30-0-0.png

Regards,

Tom.  :hi::cold:

 

 

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1 hour ago, TomSE12 said:

Hi W88,

Yes, in respect to snow on the ground, 2010 did seem very "Christmassy" but the criteria of the bet, wasn't met!! No snow fell on Xmas Day, so the bet was "lost". The same thing happened on Xmas Day 1981, after a bitterly cold, snowy couple of weeks with thick snow on the ground, no snow fell on the day. So again, any bet would've been "lost". As I stated in a post above, I walked home from my parents home in Bromley to back home in Camberwell, S.E.London, that year. The snow was around 4 inches deep and the distance of 8 and a half miles, took me nigh on 4 hours in the thick snow. I was chilled to the bone, when I arrived home!! 

Again, Christmas Day 1962 was bitterly cold but dry. The snow started falling on Boxing Day. So again, any bet would've been "lost" I was 7 at the time and have vague memories of the 1962/63, amazing Winter. See the synoptic chart for Noon,Xmas Day 1962 below:

archives-1962-12-25-12-0.png

For quite a time before Xmas, bitterly cold air had flooded down from the north of Scandinavia, to affect the Eastern part of Europe. There then was a strong rise of pressure over that area, a couple of days before Xmas Day, the central pressure of this high reached 1050 mbs, it then started to retrogress to Greenland and the rest is history, as they say!!

Snow extended south, down across the country, on Boxing Day. Just want to reproduce a paragraph from Ian Currie's, Kent County Weather Book, re. the onset of the snowfall on that Boxing Day.

Quote:

"It was a calm, grey, bitter afternoon with an earlier sharp frost still coating everything in an icy mantle. Just after three o'clock a few snow-flakes floated harmlessly to earth - advance guards of a more potent force to follow. Within a few hours all Kent was thickly covered and, as the light faded on this Boxing Day 1962, lawns and village greens would not be visible again until early March". 

Great stuff!! My Father worked on the Railways at the time, maintaining tracks, tunnels and bridges. The following Saturday evening, Dad was working on a line towards London. Dad and his colleagues had to abandon work at around 9.30 PM, as heavy snowfall accompanied by a strengthening easterly made further work, impossible. Dad eventually got a train at around 5 AM to return home, where we lived in Hayes, just south of Bromley, Kent. The snowfall added appreciably to the Boxing Day fall and was drifting badly. Dad's train could get no further than Elmers End, as the snow was drifting up onto the platform, incredible!! Dad had to continue the rest of the 3 and a half mile journey to home in Hayes by foot, up to his knees in snow, at times. It took him between three and four hours!! See chart below, at the height of that blizzard:

archives-1962-12-30-0-0.png

Regards,

Tom.  

 

 

Must be great memories to have mate of those events. 

Sadly not much snow on the horizon but plenty of rain about to hit. Wind going to start getting up too. 😁 

Screenshot_20181127-114331.png

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Well what a total gloom fest today and yesterday are these conditions make me have to work really hard to keep cheerful! Drove through thick mist/fog along the A27 to Gosport for work this morning, now it’s really piddling down going to be fun drive back. 

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For laughs and kicks Alexa said Buff-ford was 0 degrees and fog. Didn't feel like 0 degrees.  Ok it's not warm out and I have a slight temperature due to a rather sudden cold/cough thing, but it didn't feel too bad.

Bit of rain now, just as am getting ready to get bubs home. 

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It has been raining since approx 11 am and does not like it is going to stop. I have a garden gnome with a water phial to collect rainwater to gauge how much rain falls in my garden.

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After the fog, we had around an hour of sunshine before the cloud rolled in. Its now breezy with moderate rainfall. Kind of looks like a small squall-like feature on the back edge of this front...

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Just started raining here and looking at the charts it's not going to stop until next Tuesday! 😮

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12 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Kind of looks like a small squall-like feature on the back edge of this front...

Seemed a decent squall in some areas. As long as you don’t go through the gap like I’ve just done. 

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Had to bike home from school in all of this band of rain. It was horrible 😥

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Not a particularly nice spell of weather, days of cloud followed by days of wind and rain, bleurgh

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I think we need to start building a boat.. 

Tonight Midnight..

accprecip_20181127_12_012.jpg?

Thursday Midday (48 hours)

accprecip_20181127_12_048.jpg?

Sat Midnight

accprecip_20181127_12_084.jpg?

SUNDAY MIDDAY

accprecip_20181127_12_120.jpg?

 

A very mobile period of weather coming up and could be a very big reverse of the dry conditions we have experienced.. 

 

I have and will always to the day I die believe in the theory of mother nature will always balance herself out.. No matter how long it takes.. I would also go into this theory with Space but thats a conversation for another day... LOL

 

I wonder how long the Atlantic train goes for... Batten down peeps

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7 minutes ago, Surrey said:

I think we need to start building a boat.. 

Tonight Midnight..

accprecip_20181127_12_012.jpg?

Thursday Midday (48 hours)

accprecip_20181127_12_048.jpg?

Sat Midnight

accprecip_20181127_12_084.jpg?

SUNDAY MIDDAY

accprecip_20181127_12_120.jpg?

 

A very mobile period of weather coming up and could be a very big reverse of the dry conditions we have experienced.. 

 

I have and will always to the day I die believe in the theory of mother nature will always balance herself out.. No matter how long it takes.. I would also go into this theory with Space but thats a conversation for another day... LOL

 

I wonder how long the Atlantic train goes for... Batten down peeps

Blimey! I'll get the ark out of the loft.

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Just now, Lauren said:

Blimey! I'll get the ark out of the loft.

I wont go any further.. We would need to move to higher ground I think... Interesting, I called stormy and wet December in October dunno why.. Just guessed lol! When we got the first bit of cold last week and week before I was going uh oh ive lost this bet (with mum) LOL!

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Also waiting to see what Met say on Thursday morning Arpege keeps upping the wind.. (Take 5-10MPH off though) Right on rush hour too could not be more badly timed.. 

gustkph_20181127_12_042.jpg? gustkph_20181127_12_045.jpg?gustkph_20181127_12_048.jpg?

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Surrey said:

Also waiting to see what Met say on Thursday morning Arpege keeps upping the wind.. (Take 5-10MPH off though) Right on rush hour too could not be more badly timed.. 

gustkph_20181127_12_042.jpg? gustkph_20181127_12_045.jpg?gustkph_20181127_12_048.jpg?

 

 

 

need  to batten down  could  be a bit nasty   in  the  morning

 

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Amber warning and a named storm then ?? So complicated with naming do we get Diana’s daughter and Deidre for Thursday ??

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That would be Doris I would imagine.

We may as well start naming them ourselves as every other bugger is at it. 😆 

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Well what a weather filled day for us all! After driving through the fog to meet and greet the rain from the far reaches and beyond of our region, I kindly escorted it all the way back to East Sussex where it happily stayed around as much as an unwanted guest at a dinner party you never wanted to host in the first place! Cheered up immensely my husband bought tickets to see the Post Modern dukebox at the De la warr pavilion Bexhill, it was absolutely fab, brilliant musicians and very entertaining! 🤗 

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