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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018


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Just now, Snowman. said:

None other than Essex Weather themselves for that chart. 

What a disappointing winter it's been here.

If you put into Google "BBC Weather" and play the video from a few hours ago that might cheers you up mate

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Best of luck to the SE gang tonight ?

Evening All, I hope other Members have no objection but just wanted to post up a Wintry Slideshow, for our Kentish Members. But I hope all Members will enjoy these very Wintry photos, from around

Best of luck yo you guys and girls in the South. Don't give up hope if it starts as rain. It rained here for about 2 hours now it's heavy snow. You should be good for a few cms also as it's very heavy

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5 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Am not getting the Conveyor coming out of the Calais area towards Kent pushing West North Westwards through Kent, Surrey, London etc

Where are the BBC getting that from, it looks like the Precip approaches from the SW heads NE, Pivots and Peters out ?

Anyone know from the above graphics what models are showing that ?

Interestingly Paul a lot of the high resolution models show something similar to this, so there must be something that is triggering those showers as its not just on one model (though they do vary In exact locations.

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3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Interestingly Paul a lot of the high resolution models show something similar to this, so there must be something that is triggering those showers as its not just on one model (though they do vary In exact locations.

Going to be interesting in here from 3pm onwards tomorrow afternoon thats for sure

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2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Dont think I will be beating the 34cm level snow I got on the 2nd December 2010 somehow - Oh we can dream ?

165355_1497494164177_2011097_n.jpg

I remember being in Chichester at that point. We expected 5-10cms there. Ended up with 24cms. That one massively over performed so it is possible for systems to come in hotter than expected.

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All I want to know is will I get to South London and back to the Downs at Sevenoaks before the snow hits tomorrow? Last year I got stuck on the Surrey hills, and it took me 3 hrs to do 10 miles. If I get back at 6pm will I beat it, otherwise I won't go ??     

Oh and -4.6 here currently. 

 

Edited by HighPressure
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Another cold night here, near Fleet (North Hampshire). A lovely -4 temp with -4.7. DP. Gritters have just driven through our village so my excitement for tomorrow is growing. Just keeping everything crossed - but MetO has snow symbols from 5pm through until 3am so I would like to think that's as good as a promise. ?

Now I am going to get some work done in these late hours so I can give my Thursday over to radar watching. Good luck all! ?

Edited by Mizzle
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Spookily as we tick over Midnight tomorrow and into Friday 1st February when the Snow should still be falling it will be 10 Years YES Thats 10 YEARS! To the day since the Red Alert in the South East.

Listen to the Forecast from Ms Powell. Sound familiar ? Areas of the Thames Valley and South of the M4, Who said that never happens ?

 

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28 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Am not getting the Conveyor coming out of the Calais area towards Kent pushing West North Westwards through Kent, Surrey, London etc

Where are the BBC getting that from, it looks like the Precip approaches from the SW heads NE, Pivots and Peters out ?

Anyone know from the above graphics what models are showing that ?

No idea, but from the way you've just described the line of showers, may be it's a channel streamer. I wonder.

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4 minutes ago, john mac said:

See the line of precipitation lining up along the estuary? Something to kee an eye on.

3637D3E2-BBB5-4349-B688-89C35932F748.png

Unfortunately for me, this is more likely than the channel version lol.

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33 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Am not getting the Conveyor coming out of the Calais area towards Kent pushing West North Westwards through Kent, Surrey, London etc

Where are the BBC getting that from, it looks like the Precip approaches from the SW heads NE, Pivots and Peters out ?

Anyone know from the above graphics what models are showing that ?

ICON shows it but it's about the only model that does. ECM did show it on previous runs but I can't see the latest run, it's not loading for some reason

overview_20190130_18_035.thumb.jpg.414325fb67735f383e60186e275c2f3b.jpg

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9 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Spookily as we tick over Midnight tomorrow and into Friday 1st February when the Snow should still be falling it will be 10 Years YES Thats 10 YEARS! To the day since the Red Alert in the South East.

 Listen to the Forecast from Ms Powell. Sound familiar ? Areas of the Thames Valley and South of the M4, Who said that never happens ?

 

Re-watching that streamer was painful. It was about 2 miles North of me, got a dusting while London got absolutely dumped on. I was absolutely gutted! Late Nov 2010 made up for it though

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Well 21z ICON has a more active front and the pulse stays around  longer as well however nothing north of the Thames on this run...and I do mean nothing.  Kent does ok, as does all southern counties of the region. Broadly 3-6cms. But a very sharp cutoff which is pretty much M4-London.

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1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Well 21z ICON has a more active front and the pulse stays around  longer as well however nothing north of the Thames on this run...and I do mean nothing.  Kent does ok, as does all southern counties of the region. Broadly 3-6cms. But a very sharp cutoff which is pretty much M4-London.

Being just north of London is like a rollercoaster at the moment! 

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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Well 21z ICON has a more active front and the pulse stays around  longer as well however nothing north of the Thames on this run...and I do mean nothing.  Kent does ok, as does all southern counties of the region. Broadly 3-6cms. But a very sharp cutoff which is pretty much M4-London.

Give me some good news!!!!!?

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7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Well 21z ICON has a more active front and the pulse stays around  longer as well however nothing north of the Thames on this run...and I do mean nothing.  Kent does ok, as does all southern counties of the region. Broadly 3-6cms. But a very sharp cutoff which is pretty much M4-London.

Damn, even here in N Kent is right on the Northern edge there. Fairly similar to the ECM which is a slight worry, though EURO4 has upgraded the potential so in essence, we haven't got a scooby do

Edited by Daniel Smith
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1 minute ago, Nqp15hhu said:

Poor us, just getting the scraps!

Not even the scraps on that run, the front literally fades away once at M4 latitude.

The showers coming in afterwards frankly look more promising for London than that front on the 21z.

Still, nothing to say it's going to be accurate, even this close models can be wrong.

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