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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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Still a fair bit of snow laying around, my lane is like an ice rink!                                   Temps dropping rapidly now.

Everything crossed for tomorrow night, really hope it's not a snow to rain event!

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2 minutes ago, WheresTheSnow said:

Should I not trust the GFS so much because I thought with the below 2 frames that most of this region would get a few cm’s including those North of the Thames?

I wouldn't trust the GFS PPN charts over higher resolution models or the ECM PPN charts. ECM is far less liberal with amounts and is further south.

The real deal would be mogreps of course, but none of us have access to that!

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Meanwhile, temperature wise here south of Reading we have 2.7 with a dewpoint of 0. We have some cloud cover so that is keeping the temperature a bit higher.

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Wonder how low the temps can go tonight? Forecast is for -5 but I reckon if the sky stays clear we could go a few degrees lower.

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4 minutes ago, WhiteFox said:

It's all varying so much across the outputs. The only thing we know for now is that it the forecast extent of the front has shifted south over the past few days. Most runs have the heaviest falls further west, with lower amounts as you head east.

As for the different models they have so much variety I don't think we'll really know until we get a look at the forecast vorticity and PPN rates tomorrow. Really a case of nowcasting! 

Agreed Whitefox, the broad trends are there on pretty much all the models but the exacts will in this case probably make a big difference, especially on the boundary and also on the boundary between the pulse in the channel/far south England and the lighter stuff to the north. Anyone who gets in that heavier stuff will be in the 5-10cms range, outside of it and probably looking at 2-4cms would be my best guesstimate.

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6 minutes ago, KenningtonKitty said:

Latest Met Office Forecast - that's a lot of white!

https://youtu.be/Ee_t1IxvWfQ

Well that forecast’s a corker! I think we’ll take that in a heartbeat.

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Just now, lawrenk said:

Well that forecast’s a corker! I think we’ll take that in a heartbeat.

Ec doesn’t agree ..... hope it’s wrong ..

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Be in later will report in on 18z models -

Temps NAG already -1 with 80% snowcover remaining-

Stalling front looks spot on over my house tomorrow night!!!

Also more snow sat hopefully !!

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This is getting silly ! 

H&S has visited the metoffice, or is it really going to be that bad.

Screenshot_20190130-180303_Chrome.jpg

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3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Agreed Whitefox, the broad trends are there on pretty much all the models but the exacts will in this case probably make a big difference, especially on the boundary and also on the boundary between the pulse in the channel/far south England and the lighter stuff to the north. Anyone who gets in that heavier stuff will be in the 5-10cms range, outside of it and probably looking at 2-4cms would be my best guesstimate.

I think your estimates are probably spot on based on what the various models are saying this evening. Be interesting to see the ECM 18z charts later to see if there is any more movement.

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27 minutes ago, Surrey said:

@kold weather @Steve Murr @tom

Not sure why its not tagged Tom.. 

Just a thought.. The fax charts have the front pretty much smack central of London and it pivots there before going south... Anyone thought for a time pulling in moisture from the Thames to aid in PPN rates? 

Just a thought.. 

Midnight Friday 

Screenshot_20190130-174314.thumb.png.57b75e9080c1d8b386988717ec4ccc02.png

Midday Friday 

Screenshot_20190130-174327.thumb.png.4224ccc2316fb222fd0afce5089ac5bb.png

MetO's latest forecast also confirms the ppn pivoting before slowly moving South...............Interesting times ahead ❄️❄️

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6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

@kold weather

Whats our regional depths looking like for ECM

are we black or blue on PPN !!

Very minimal north of Thames, like dusting levels, only really the far south get any notable amounts of snow, vtween 3-6cms within about 30 miles of the coast, inbetween that and the Thames level, maybe 1-3cms? Hard to say until the 1hr charts come out and I'll have better resolution then to see exactly what it shows

Its the weakest run yet I'm afraid.

I'm right on the edge of the 2 inch line where I am for example. It hasn't really shifted southwards per say as the area of higher precip is still in the exact same place, its just the front decays even quicker. Kinda similar to ICON, but better for the southern counties than that model was.

Edited by kold weather

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So many conflicting forecasts about. 

Met office going with snow up to central midlands, BBC going with snow pushing into South Midlands and some models keeping snow for Southern most Counties. 

Central east Wales over to Hereford way looks to cop the most potential tomorrow 

My hunch for our region, Expect pretty good snowy pictures in Surrey and Berkshire. 

Best of luck everyone, I’m to far north unfortunately here in central Beds it seems. 

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3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Very minimal north of Thames, like dusting levels, only really the far south get any notable amounts of snow, vtween 3-6cms within about 30 miles of the coast, inbetween that and the Thames level, maybe 1-3cms? Hard to say until the 1hr charts come out and I'll have better resolution then to see exactly what it shows

Its the weakest run yet I'm afraid.

Not sure I really buy the ECM totals. Mogreps must be showing something different and I'd take their amounts over the lower resolution ECM at this stage.

However, ECM maybe closer in terms of vorticity, so maybe further south than met office forecast, but then we have no idea of verification stats on PPN for Mogreps v ECM at this range!

Still lots of possibilities.

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Just now, WhiteFox said:

Not sure I really buy the ECM totals. Mogreps must be showing something different and I'd take their amounts over the lower resolution ECM at this stage.

However, ECM maybe closer in terms of vorticity, so maybe further south than met office forecast, but then we have no idea of verification stats on PPN for Mogreps v ECM at this range!

Still lots of possibilities.

You mayvbe right, especially as the UKMO own model did shift a touch north with the strongest snowfall totals, and indeed in general is more aggressive with making the system sustain.

ICON is similar to the ECM, as is HIRLAM, then again ARPEGE and AROME look more like UKMO, as does Euro4 in terms of amounts, so could go either way as you say. Won't know until it gets here...if...it...gets...here!

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10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Very minimal north of Thames, like dusting levels, only really the far south get any notable amounts of snow, vtween 3-6cms within about 30 miles of the coast, inbetween that and the Thames level, maybe 1-3cms? Hard to say until the 1hr charts come out and I'll have better resolution then to see exactly what it shows

Its the weakest run yet I'm afraid.

I'm right on the edge of the 2 inch line where I am for example. It hasn't really shifted southwards per say as the area of higher precip is still in the exact same place, its just the front decays even quicker. Kinda similar to ICON, but better for the southern counties than that model was.

No worries its a bit of a nowcast I guess -

Probably worth just watching the radar  - however if it does stall out over south of the thames I would imagine it should get a bit of pep up !

Anyway Another 2-3 cms will do me fine but of course hoping for more

Edited by Steve Murr

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Quick question....

Have a flight out of Gatwick Friday morning. Travelling from Great Wakering, Essex. Do I book a hotel at the airport for tomorrow night or keep my original plans of bring picked up at 4am Friday morning ??

Not sure if here in Great Wakering we are meant to have rain.. sleet or snow lol.

 

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1 minute ago, poppie123 said:

Quick question....

Have a flight out of Gatwick Friday morning. Travelling from Great Wakering, Essex. Do I book a hotel at the airport for tomorrow night or keep my original plans of bring picked up at 4am Friday morning ??

Not sure if here in Great Wakering we are meant to have rain.. sleet or snow lol.

 

Hard to say right now, but I'd say there is at least a fair chance the roads around Gatwick may not be the best, but it depends how much snow does actually fall. If its on the lower edge everything will cope...if its on the higher end, Gatwick will probably have at the least some delays regardless of mode of transport....

My advice is just keep a close eye on the forecast on Thursday evening and watch to see what is being reported at Gatwick snow depth wise.

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10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

No worries its a bit of a nowcast I guess -

Probably worth just watching the radar  - however if it does stall out over south of the thames I would imagine it should get a bit of pep up !

Anyway Another 2-3 cms will do me fine but of course hoping for more

Alex Deakin UKMO recent update is very good for our region Steve - it would appear Exeter are going with their own model over ECM. Deakin has the front running through the middle of London along a line running roughly roughly from Harrow to Bexley. 

Edited by Downpour

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Just now, Ben Lewis said:

BBC latest graphics:

 

2EC87563-1B85-4B56-B281-E5264DCB9194.jpeg

D61F9A01-6CD4-4CF9-BB96-150197E94301.jpeg

Which model are they using? Certainty not ECM (6z). Eyes down for this evening’s ECM...

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Ugh look at that, snow in Peterborough and Ely again. Please move this snow band 50 miles north and east, the central areas have had two events this past week, already. 

Bedfordshire etc don't need any more snow.

Edited by Nqp15hhu

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