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Blessed Weather

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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Enthusiastic lurker and reader, very rare poster. 

I was last being nosey here a couple of days ago, when talks of 6-8” of snow widespread across the SE was being touted in the ‘reliable’.

Today’s post seem to suggest these expectations have been somewhat downgraded to a couple of cms if lucky? Is that th gist of things?

 

Realistically, what is in the cards for us tomorrow night? And how does it compare with the current ideas of Thursday’s snow forecast?

 

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Go check out the real feel temps for northern USA the next couple of days...

 

minneapolis is -63 tomorrow !

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Dry and clear, 1.3C...Tonight's going to be a cold one!:cold:

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Trying to work out my dewpoint.

My temp is 3.9c

My humidity is 24%

So dewpoint -15c. 

Does that seem right?

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Well the UKMO 12z holds onto a similar output to its 00z output, probable total snow event north of the Thames.

For the south, and especially far south (within 20 miles of the coast), things get really tricky and exceptionally marginal (which it always was going to be!) I think timing will be key, and on that front the UKMO would probably just about be ok. 850hpa temps are also borderline too warm but may just about still be ok at least to start with. 0C isotherm is just south of us but there is a reasonably tight gradient onland until the front pushes on through. Intensity of precipitation if accurate is probably also just about on our side, but again its close. Kinda suspect it looks similar to the ICON in terms of snow but hard to know!

It does look like the ECM 06z which gave a decent snow event even close to the coast, only really the first 5 miles are going to struggle in that solution.

Edited by kold weather

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Temperatures are WELL BELOW what was forecast.. 1ºc low temperature tonight met office but already 0ºC..

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2.3c here, dew point -4c. Going to be very cold overnight.

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4 hours ago, jos787 said:

Higher, no lower, no left, no right, who knows at the moment 😀, again all down to lamppost watching, im happy with what ever i get, i just like watching it come down in silence, see im easily pleased 😂, its still beautiful, and natures wonder 

what if you get drizzle instead😣

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By the way the 06z ECM (which I know will be out of date soon!) had about 4-6 inches quite widely, even for places relatively far south, having a look at the 1hr snow levels.  very impressive from it, even if it maybe a little overdone based on tonights models so far (the risk is there, but I think the southern extent is overdone).

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6 minutes ago, Sky High said:

Trying to work out my dewpoint.

My temp is 3.9c

My humidity is 24%

So dewpoint -15c. 

Does that seem right?

That is right calculation wise, but you need to check the RH, that looks way to low.👍

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2 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

That is right calculation wise, but you need to check the RH, that looks way to low.👍

Thanks Chris

I have an Oregon weather reader from Argos. Well actually my wife does, but what's hers is mine, right? It now says 26% humidity. I wonder why the reading would be wrong and how I can fix it.

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5:30pm and I can still see some blue sky off to the west. That’s a nice feeling though makes me more aware we are inching towards the back end of winter now. Hopefully it’ll be a nice cold night...help cool the ground down even more for the upcoming snow events. 😁

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9 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

what if you get drizzle instead😣

I wont, but if i do Skol 🤣

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7 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

what if you get drizzle instead😣

The No Drizzle Club will lose a member...?:yahoo:

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1 minute ago, Sky High said:

Thanks Chris

I have an Oregon weather reader from Argos. Well actually my wife does, but what's hers is mine, right? It now says 26% humidity. I wonder why the reading would be wrong and how I can fix it.

Has it got an inside and outside humidity on it or just outside?

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1.2°C in Leighton buzzard now...dropping like a stone in the last hour 🙂 fingers crossed everyone sees at least some snow over the next few days 👍 signed off work so can watch it all unfold from my bedroom window 😁

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1 minute ago, Chris101 said:

Has it got an inside and outside humidity on it or just outside?

It has inside too. 45% inside. 

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A few posts have been hidden, Please report any problematic post. And remember this is an open forum for uses of all ages..

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12 minutes ago, kold weather said:

By the way the 06z ECM (which I know will be out of date soon!) had about 4-6 inches quite widely, even for places relatively far south, having a look at the 1hr snow levels.  very impressive from it, even if it maybe a little overdone based on tonights models so far (the risk is there, but I think the southern extent is overdone).

Thanks for the update Kold. Can I ask what day you are talking about, I presume from those totals you mean Thursday? Might be worth us all staying the day or T+ we are talking about within our posts or it may get confusing !

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Just had an e-mail from Southeastern trains warning of possibly disruption on / from Thursday:

Advanced severe weather alert

Possible Winter Weather Timetable from Thursday

Hello,

We’re emailing to let you know in advance that due to forecast bad weather, we may need to run a Winter Weather Timetable from Thursday 31 January. 

We’ll confirm this at least 24 hours in advance of the change and will send you another email to let you know.

Edited by EWS

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COLD WEATHER LEVEL 3 AMBER ALERT ISSUED

852232643_UKCOLDWEATHERALERTLEVEL328_01_19.thumb.PNG.5764282215afb15b54d9e00d7b46d4d5.PNG

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Looking forward to Thursday....

can anyone help me out, is Thursday a daytime or evening time event?.

its my son’s 8th birthday Thursday so wondering if I need to possible prepare myself for a non school day or if it will be ok until he’s home!. Haven’t broken it to him as yet that he may see snow on his birthday. 

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1 minute ago, EWS said:

Just had an e-mail from Southeastern trains warning of possibly disruption on / from Thursday:

Advanced severe weather alert

Possible Winter Weather Timetable from Thursday

Hello,

We’re emailing to let you know in advance that due to forecast bad weather, we may need to run a Winter Weather Timetable from Thursday 31 January. 

We’ll confirm this at least 24 hours in advance of the change and will send you another email to let you know.

Sounds like they know more then we do about Thursday.. maybe tomorrow night really is just a taste of what's to come!

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2 hours ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Bank but that line of freezing rain and sleet is too close for comfort 😉

Snow on freezing rain, had that in march, everyone coped with the ice, then it changed to snow, and suddenly you couldn't drive anywhere, slippery as hell. If that's what's coming, it defo warrants a warning.

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28 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Impressive surface cold already in the SE ( impressive relative to the mediocre flow & depth of cold vis a vee a plain Jane NW airmass )

Temp as below @512PM

A2037127-52D2-4F07-9BFF-EDE442205FCC.thumb.jpeg.dac870805888bb4794c66254375b97ef.jpeg

 

Is that impressive? We had a high of 1.5c a few days ago.

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