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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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11 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

 

Just my tuppence worth, all looks very close to marginal to me and I’m not a fan of slush. But the Met Office are still expecting some snow cover for most of our region, that’s positive. 

Yes to my untrained eye it seems we won’t have too much snow to worry about down here in Berkshire this week , hopefully that changes on the next few model runs .

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I follow a beds weather twitter who thinks good olde Beddy will be rain and luton will be snow. OFC i'm not going to utter the gossip of itshaltnotsnow...however it's not overly outstanding.

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1 hour ago, Nqp15hhu said:

What? It's pure rain in Norwich with a temp of 1c.

Yeah my Wife who is in Norwich said the same thing. Started snowing at about 8am with a few 5 or 10 min flurrys of big flakes. No rain mixed in whatsoever.

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I am still not convinced tbh. I live in Brighton and I don't expect to see lying snow. So many times we got excited and nothing happened. I expect to see some flurries Wednesday morning, then even before noon it will turn either rain or gonna be sunny.

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49 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Forgive the terrible map, it's surprisingly hard to find a map that shows the SE and East Anglia

istockphoto-670756860-1024x1024.thumb.png.58e62442c7ffbebdfa82dc5e3922ad62.png

Red zone has highest potential for seeing an all snow event - Elsewhere likely to see rain > snow.

South coast likely to see falling snow with intensity/any altitude but rain/sleety/snow mix more likely so lowered accumulating snowfall here. Red zone 3-4cm widely, 6-10cm with any higher ground/heavier bursts.

FAX chart shows the front pivoting a little over our region which could give an hour or two of extra snowfall, worth watching!

FAX.thumb.gif.72d2ea833c9dff553b52557e746e04d6.gif

iStock just out of the sweet spot dammit

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Just now, turkishfella said:

I am still not convinced tbh. I live in Brighton and I don't expect to see lying snow. So many times we got excited and nothing happened. I expect to see some flurries Wednesday morning, then even before noon it will turn either rain or gonna be sunny.

You're really on the edge of anything for this. I am in Medway almost dead central but am still not holding our much hope. We always have the advantage here of it picking up something off the Thames as it crosses over but I am still waiting for a real snow event that doesn't come from the East.

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6 minutes ago, Let_it_snow said:

Yeah my Wife who is in Norwich said the same thing. Started snowing at about 8am with a few 5 or 10 min flurrys of big flakes. No rain mixed in whatsoever.

FWIW, it's alternating between rain and almost snow, down here...a mere 18 miles' SE of Norwich.

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10 minutes ago, throwoff said:

You're really on the edge of anything for this. I am in Medway almost dead central but am still not holding our much hope. We always have the advantage here of it picking up something off the Thames as it crosses over but I am still waiting for a real snow event that doesn't come from the East.

Last Tuesday proved that, I couldn't believe how Gravesend was reporting fat snowflakes yet nothing in Medway.

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Very confused here, we are travelling from Croydon to Norwich on Friday morning and then from Norwich to Stanstead Saturday morning for a flight.

Does anybody have any idea whether we could get anything to disrupt travel plans.

Thanks

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I think most need to try and bank on the bulk of precipitation arriving after dark for it to really have a chance of sticking. As for the precipitation itself - its looking extremely marginal in nature and this will also play true for snowfall by the looks of things - there are hints of some additional features coming into play that could pep up the precipitation. 

I think a few may well be disappointed tomorrow but on the other hand a few may be surprised. It'll depend very much on the location and intensity of any precipitation 

It's going to be a fascinating day of weather... I like those sort of days! Gearing myself up for the worst at the moment (ie light snizzle that doesn't stick!!)... 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Isabellesnanny said:

Very confused here, we are travelling from Croydon to Norwich on Friday morning and then from Norwich to Stanstead Saturday morning for a flight.

Does anybody have any idea whether we could get anything to disrupt travel plans.

Thanks

Looks like your trip to Norwich on Friday morning could be a snowy one... but my advise is to keep updated. There's certainly a medium percentage probability of 2-3 inches of snow Thursday night/Friday morning and I would think Norwich could be in that bracket 

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9 minutes ago, Isabellesnanny said:

Very confused here, we are travelling from Croydon to Norwich on Friday morning and then from Norwich to Stanstead Saturday morning for a flight.

Does anybody have any idea whether we could get anything to disrupt travel plans.

Thanks

We can hardly be sure of tomorrow and Wednesday, let alone Friday 😁

Early hours of Saturday looks messy!

Edited by Kent Blizzard

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So we have 2 warnings (snow and ice) but the forecast for the North Kent coast is rain. Cold rain. Delightful 😂

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Hmmm, not holding out much hope for tomorrow night into Weds morning to be honest.

As others have said, all very marginal and most will see rain to snow for a while. Despite the myth that snow cannot stick after rain, I have seen this happen many times, so there is a chance some of us will have a slushy covering for a while late Tuesday into Weds morning. Not ideal, we all want nice powder but after this horrific winter so far, we have to take what we can get. Those further North & West in our region best placed for half decent accumulation I feel.

 

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All down to lamppost watching, as i dont have lampposts where i live, its a case of waving my arm outside my back door for my security light, so now called security light watching, doesnt have the same ring to it though 🤣, im getting snow anyway, so im happy, 😁

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At the end of the day the signs are good, every front and trough that crosses the UK has lots of fluctuations and divergences from what was forecast, little waves and pivots, sudden intensifications of certain areas.

The thing is that most of the year this makes no difference to us whatsoever and to a certain extent we don't even notice that we got a fair bit more or less rain than was forecast or it rained for 2 hours longer than they said.

Now when that precipitation leaves a deposit behind that we can see all those fluctuations come into play a whole lot more, rest assured the guys at meto will be trying madly to work as much detail as they can to add in to the model, but it wont be easy for them, like i say, the most of the year they really don't have to worry about these minor details, it just ends up with you saying it was meant to stay clear till lunch but its raining already.

How many times a year does anyone notice that they were forecast 4.6mm of rain but actually got 6.0mm?

Edited by Chris101

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3 minutes ago, jos787 said:

All down to lamppost watching, as i dont have lampposts where i live, its a case of waving my arm outside my back door for my security light, so now called security light watching, doesnt have the same ring to it though 🤣, im getting snow anyway, so im happy, 😁

A rechargeable work light comes in very handy 😁

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I have lamposts but they bloody go off at 1am! 

Glorious day here today. Sun shining, hard to believe anything white is heading our way. If at all!

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33 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

iStock just out of the sweet spot dammit

Can you adjust that a little East and South please. Central London more at risk than Steve Murrs downs location?!

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1 minute ago, Kent Blizzard said:

A rechargeable work light comes in very handy 😁

very true, but  a bit of pity for me wouldnt go a miss😀, as i have to stick both feet out side my back door and freeze, mines a halogen light so a  747 could land, as i will be out there waving my hand constantly 🤣, mind you if i did i would die happily covered in snow 🤣🤣, no embalming necessary 😂

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Let's see what happens tomorrow night, certainly not without interest. Not hugely bothered as it's still only late January so plenty of winter still to go. The overall pattern is what the MET have been saying for weeks now and they are still going for February E/NE. 

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Honestly, I think a lot of people are going to be disappointed. I'm not quite sure what people are looking at on the models to be ramping it up so much. Looks to be a mildly snowy event to me.

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ECM ensembles for Thursday are broadly still suggesting about 1-2 inches for areas about 20 miles north of the south coast. Quite a sharp cutoff though from there to rain.

However there is still a huge amount of uncertainty about Thursday, and everything from heavy rain only, right through to 6-8 inches even to the coast is still on the table. The mean though is what was suggested above, and actually very similar to the 06z ICON.

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