SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[kold weather 4,545]

ECM 18z continues with the theme of weakening the front over us. Barely worth a mention, probably 1-2cms, may not be much left in far eastern E,Anglia for example. Though you guys up there may well profit from Thursday.

[Bricriu 182]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ECM 18z continues with the theme of weakening the front over us. Barely worth a mention, probably 1-2cms, may not be much left in far eastern E,Anglia for example. Though you guys up there may well profit from Thursday.

Do you think the UKMO will end up backing it? Which model in your experience is the most trustworthy in these scenarios?

Edited January 28 by Bricriu

[Nqp15hhu 57]

Kinda depressing getting all worked up to seeing snow and now we're getting nothing. 

And not a single flake of snow in the rain despite being 2c outside.  

Edited January 28 by Nqp15hhu

[kold weather 4,545]

However the 18z ECM puts us in a far better position for Thursday, big shift in the shape and angle of the front. So swings and roundabouts 

The met office warning will need to extended bug time tommorow, but 1-3cms still looks reasonable based on tonight. It will be enough to make it look pretty, but not much more.

However these things can and do change so keep a close eye!

[Kent Blizzard 1,245]

We are really in a stage where we need to monitor events on the day, very hard to predict accuracy this far out.

[lassie23 14,893]

Not expecting anything it's just not cold enough despite all the hype

[Kentspur 560]

32 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ECM 18z continues with the theme of weakening the front over us. Barely worth a mention, probably 1-2cms, may not be much left in far eastern E,Anglia for example. Though you guys up there may well profit from Thursday.

I mentioned earlier in the day about the model runs slowly lowering the snow fall amounts one min we were talking close to a foot in places and now not even a inch?! I hope there's a reverse trend tomorrow 

[Delka 434]

41 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

I mentioned earlier in the day about the model runs slowly lowering the snow fall amounts one min we were talking close to a foot in places and now not even a inch?! I hope there's a reverse trend tomorrow 

i may be wrong in saying but i don't think we were ever looking at more then a couple inches in places being realistic

personally if it's just a cm or two i'll take it and be happy with what i have as it's more then we've had in many other recent years, but if we do see upgrades in the 36 hours or so i definitely won't be saying no to them!

[Jayces 473]

Honestly folks, what happens each day of this week starting with tomorrow really will be a nowcast situation.

There are some great knowledgeable people on here but they can only advise on what the models are showing (which changes every 6 hours) and give input in to what may happen based on experience 

I want it to snow as much as everyone else but experience has taught me that in this situation the answer to that question really won't be known until Tuesday night

[TomSE12 7,232]

Up early again, for the latest episode in Tuesday's Snowgate Saga. 

Have just seen a recording of Meteogroup's, Weather For The Week Ahead.(with Alina Jenkins),

Alina started the Forecast by suggesting we would find ourselves to the North of the Jet Stream, for the coming week.

She then suggested for the first full week of February, we could see something, slightly milder but only briefly.

We start the week on quite a cold, frosty note.Yesterday's strong winds have now abated, so it won't feel quite as cold, max temps in London, around 7c. Then she moved on to that problematic Low, just to our West. She said this will initially bring some rain into the S.W./S., of the UK. But, as Tuesday wears on, we are likely to see some persistent sleet and snow, tracking S.E, down the country. Wednesday starts with perhaps some residual sleet and snow, in the extreme East of our region.

On Thursday a Low in the Atlantic slides S.E, to our West but the graphics on her map didn't suggest that any ppn, would reach our region. That Low then locates itself to our South and we find ourselves, in a cold Easterly flow, on Friday. 

As we go into the Weekend, a brief ridge of High Pressure, moves towards us. As the Jet Stream moves to the North of us again, we will experience some milder air, during the first full week of February.

Alina finished her Forecast by stating that this milder set-up doesn't look like it will last for long. and the colder air will return, during the middle part, of the following week.

That's my interpretation of how MeteoGroup sees the weather for our Region, for the next ten days or so.

Regarding tomorrow's snow risk for our Region, it could still be a case of a nowcast situation and radar watching. But IMO, if the small Low doesn't affect us, the trough sitting atop of the Low will, as it tracks S.E, towards us. Don't think they'll be a huge amount of snow though, perhaps a few cms.

Regards,

Tom.  

.

 

[jright35 121]

Ha ha! Here we go again! Depressed posts, it will only be 2cm not the 20 promised yesterday! Every year!

[Sharpedge 197]

Does seem a bit quiet

[Paul Sherman 5,651]

Still of the same opinion from when I last posted on Friday about this not being a normal system moving into entrenched cold air. Drizzle and rain Tuesday should turn from 10pm onwards to give some snow, not expecting more than 1-3cm and locally 5cm in favoured spots with Altitude. Most of this will compact down for wednesday, expecting a cold night under no winds on wednesday night and could squeak a -4c overnight, then Thursday's system looks to be a sleety,snowy,rainy mess.

Not even looked at the weekend yet.

Hope I am wrong with the above but cant foresee too many problems, happy to be corrected though

[TomSE12 7,232]

11 hours ago, jos787 said:

Ah who remembers the snow cup a few years ago, ?now that was fun , can't remember who did all the hard work keeping records, I remember going outside with my tape measure and taking a photo, and bloody froze and still lost , plus think there was cheating going on, how naughty 

Ah, thank you jos787, for those very kind words.

If memory serves and my Stroke hasn't sent me completely gaga, were you the lady I used to have banter with about measuring your snow, in white stilettos? That's you in white stilettos, not me!! Wouldn't be seen dead wearing white stilettos, only black darling, coming from Bromley/Chislehurst, as I do.  I think I used to ramble on about "white powder" in Croydon, when I worked there!!

If it's a case of mistaken Forum identity and I'm Barking ( that's not too far from Ongar, is it?) up the wrong tree, I apologise and will now retire to a darkened room!! It's just that your location, rang a bell with me.

I can remember when I lived in Anerley (under the Avatar name of TomSE20), having sheets of A4 paper strewn across my living room floor. These were to keep records of snow depths of around 40 members, split between the North and South of our region. I was about to incorporate a bit of my Bookmaking experience and introduce a handicapping system to make it more of a "level playing field". It had been noted that the joint winners of the first Snow Depth Cup, LOTTIEKENT (538 FT) and SNOWBOB (New Addington/Biggin Hiill), who no doubt has some elevation but was cunningly hiding it, had an unfair advantage over us lowland dwellers!! I had in mind to dock I cm of snow depth off for every 300 feet of elevation, or something along those lines. But then, as I stated in my earlier post we started to lack a vital commodity, to these Competitions, that being SNOW!!  

Anyway, Nurse is shouting at me, to have my injection now!!

Regards,

Tom. 

 

 

 

Edited January 28 by TomSE12

[Nqp15hhu 57]

 It's been raining all night, temp has fallen to 1.5c and there isn't a touch of winteriness within the rain.

Very odd weather.

Edited January 28 by Nqp15hhu

[snowblind 143]

Mmm. Disappointing outlook on the MO site. Band of sleet and snow moving east whilst weekening on Wednesday. Occasional wintry showers Friday.

Looks like a reduction in the snow potential rather than the increase we were hoping for.

[Jackski4 568]

Just awoken to a lot of ups and downs re Tuesday. Some people saying it's going to be great others saying 2cms.. Depends what model you're looking at I guess. I'd still like to think UKMO will be right, as that looks very nice indeed.

 

@kold weather what do you make of both Tuesday and Thursday this morning here in EA? 

[jos787 27]

45 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Ah, thank you jos787, for those very kind words.

If memory serves and my Stroke hasn't sent me completely gaga, were you the lady I used to have banter with about measuring your snow, in white stilettos? That's you in white stilettos, not me!! Wouldn't be seen dead wearing white stilettos, only black darling, coming from Bromley/Chislehurst, as I do.  I think I used to ramble on about "white powder" in Croydon, when I worked there!!

If it's a case of mistaken Forum identity and I'm Barking ( that's not too far from Ongar, is it?) up the wrong tree, I apologise and will now retire to a darkened room!! It's just that your location, rang a bell with me.

I can remember when I lived in Anerley (under the Avatar name of TomSE20), having sheets of A4 paper strewn across my living room floor. These were to keep records of snow depths of around 40 members, split between the North and South of our region. I was about to incorporate a bit of my Bookmaking experience and introduce a handicapping system to make it more of a "level playing field". It had been noted that the joint winners of the first Snow Depth Cup, LOTTIEKENT (538 FT) and SNOWBOB (New Addington/Biggin Hiill), who no doubt has some elevation but was cunningly hiding it, had an unfair advantage over us lowland dwellers!! I had in mind to dock I cm of snow depth off for every 300 feet of elevation, or something along those lines. But then, as I stated in my earlier post we started to lack a vital commodity, to these Competitions, that being SNOW!!  

Anyway, Nurse is shouting at me, to have my injection now!!

Regards,

Tom. 

 

 

 

Hi Tom, yes that was me,, yep we had a lot of banter then and now you can stay out of that blackened room and stay on here with us 

[Dami 3,199]

That is all.

[Hammer 357]

Checking 00z at T36 shows many of them with low just south of Brest in NW France around 990mb.

Should reality follow I have been impressed with ICON. 

Expectation for me is still a few cms. For me we probably would have wanted a slightly more northerly tracked low heading NE up channel and a little more vigorous and as others mention cold already entrenched.

[Uxbridge90 180]

Not looking particularly great this morning. Wonder if those warnings will he removed at all?

[SLEETY 3,384]

42 minutes ago, snowblind said:

Mmm. Disappointing outlook on the MO site. Band of sleet and snow moving east whilst weekening on Wednesday. Occasional wintry showers Friday.

Looks like a reduction in the snow potential rather than the increase we were hoping for.

Yes they don't seem interested in anything special now. No mention of disruptive snowfalls i which was on the text forecasts yesterday for Tuesday in to Wednesday for our region. 

And no mention of any snowfall now for later in the week

This winter is turning out to be nothing special at all. 

Edited January 28 by SLEETY

[kold weather 4,545]

Nothing too impressive for Tuesday but at least there is snow around, could be worse!

As for Thursday, if I were close to say Watford I'd be quite excited for snow.

Down to where I am it's going to require near perfection for all snow. ECM has moved in right direction but timing of arrival is pretty poor.

The met office warnings were only ever for 1 to 3cm on Tuesday, so no I don't think there's any need to remove the the warnings they look valid from here.

Edited January 28 by kold weather

[lassie23 14,893]

BBC breakfast weather avoided showing any graphics of snow pushing southeast lol, trying to avoid embarrassment maybe in case it doesn't happen?

[Hammer 357]

4 minutes ago, Uxbridge90 said:

Not looking particularly great this morning. Wonder if those warnings will he removed at all?

Warning zone modified I would think to more NW based on current output with lowering of the amount favoured spots might of got.