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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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It's bloody raining! image.thumb.png.0e1bf2915eacbd80848c73099ff37361.png

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3 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Mild & dry.

The transition to cold is predicted overnight - 

Rain first - post 1pm

Wonderful, thanks Steve. Suits me fine!

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Temperature is falling away sharply after a high of 5c midday-ish.

currently 1.6c:

2DBB6D85-E3B0-4281-BFF2-5AA67E5EF96D.jpeg

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2 hours ago, lawrenk said:

The mid and long range MO updates keep us well in the game. Only subtle changes but mention more of a risk of snow in “the east” so a definite upgrade in my book.

Wouldn't pay too much attention to that, its swings and roundabouts at the moment - the meto are struggling to keep track of it. Blame the Canada vortex! Charts flip flopping like anything on a daily basis but generally trending unfavourably, but we'll have to see until nearer the time.

Wouldn't be surprised to see another meto update tomorrow downplaying snow potential 

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1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

Tell you something the predicted Temps today have been very wrong esp for the east of our region. Predicted were 4c to 5c and the reality has been 1c to 2c in places

Yep even my location inner London maximum of 2.6C coldest day of winter there’s a slight waft coming off continent and a mix from PM less influential for us further south and east.

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While the MOD thread goes into melt down as ICON throws out a fantastic 12z and the GFS throws an okay one... 

Currently some still have laying snow.. According to Facebook (I will try find the post also a non official report) there was up to 8CM of laying snow around Oxford and a little south, with upto 4cm in places closer to London.

Going to be close to -6 in places tonight which is exceptional for an island dominated by westerly weather and sitting next to the biggest Ocean in the world. Yet some people want to chase charts out in fairy tail land. 

I might also add there is a small chance some places North of London might catch another dusting overnight thanks to a decaying trough slipping south. 

OH and there could possible be a snowy period coming up after a milder blip. ALL currently sitting in FI apart from we know with confidence the VERY BRIEF warm up.

 

 

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fair to say that a quick summary of the upcoming (next 10 days) is as follows?

tonight v cold with a hard frost 

tomorrow cold

friday and saturday 'mild' - 7 to 9C

sunday colder

next week 3 to 5C with a growing chance of the white stuff as we move past Wednesday

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I wonder if the milder air may just move in and clear a little quicker than first thought looking at the GFS OP, Which in turn brings the colder weather and snow potential forward a touch.

Edited by Kent Blizzard

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Gritters were out and about at 3pm. Earliest I've ever seen that!

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13 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

Who writes this rubbish?

I don't even need to look . That will be Nathan rao and his go to mate for " the coldest winter in 800years" James madden. 

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Frozen here already ice forming... Going to be VERY cold tonight!

 

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6 minutes ago, Bazza118 said:

I don't even need to look . That will be Nathan rao and his go to mate for " the coldest winter in 800years" James madden. 

have a scroll down the list of snowmageddon articles that he's penned over the last few months. incredible stuff!!!

https://www.express.co.uk/search?s=Nathan+Rao&b=1&o=30

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23 minutes ago, username home said:

have a scroll down the list of snowmageddon articles that he's penned over the last few months. incredible stuff!!!

https://www.express.co.uk/search?s=Nathan+Rao&b=1&o=30

He has a reputation for this... I was at a RMS meeting last year that covered the global climate and changes that affect the UK.  Part of the discussion included a section on how the Met office try to choose their words very carefully when releasing their forecasts. They mentioned the need to try and avoid sensationalising things and with that a slide of Daily Express front pages (at least 40 of them) appeared (written by Mr Rao of course). I don't think there was a person in the room who wasn't laughing and thats  150+ people...

But i guess what you can say though is that the UK weather keeps him in a job 🙂

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reached a maximum of 4.1 today but felt much colder than that.Working outside for a living not a great deal of fun at this time of year(but still beats working in an office which i did for 14 years lol) and it felt colder than the 4 degrees.Looks like another Northerly could be on the cards for Sunday if we could get a tiny Easterly element in this then the SE could see some more of the white stuff that some saw late yesterday afternoon and early evening.

Interested that TOMSE12 spoken to Mr Currie again and that looks optimistic for the rest of the month(excluding the odd short milder blip) going into February.Thanks Tom for getting these thoughts as I am sure i can speak on behalf of SE members that these give a balanced view on what could happen in next few weeks.Obviousily no guarantees as this is the UK we are talking about but a real possibilty going forward

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1 hour ago, username home said:

Oh dear, I see our friend Nathan, is at it again.

Having Spoken to local Meteorologist Ian Currie, who certainly envisages a colder than average February, that is crazily. OTT!! Another Frost Fair on the Thames beckons and sightings of Polar Bears, wandering down Bromley High Street!! Nathan, really does rack 'em up, doesn't he??

Just about to put together a post about Channel Lows, IMO a much misused term, along with Polar Low.

Quote Mizzle:

"Thanks @TomSE12 and I am looking forward to your post about Channel Lows. I have heard them mentioned but haven't as yet been able to find much info. (I am genuinely almost as excited waiting for this as I am for the snow. I love your posts.  )".

Many thanks to Mizzle, for her very kind words, above. I'm certainly not as technically gifted as some members on here but I am old. Meteorology has been my hobby since I was ten and I'm now sixty-three. I'd like a £1 for every Synoptic Chart, I've looked at, I'd be on the way to becoming a rich man. Ian Currie himself is sixty-eight and uses his vast experience, to formulate his Forecasts. Ian has taken recordings from his Weather Stations, for tens of years. He had two Weather Stations when he lived in Coulsdon, Surrey. One in his back garden and one on his allotment, at Chipstead Valley ( a well-known local "frost hollow"). So, I hope members understand why I got so angry a few weeks ago, when Ian was referred to as, "just another bloke off the TV!! :nonono:

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

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Currently -1.7C. Sunny spells today but with a cold breeze. Max today 2.2C

Hoping to see more snow in the coming days--more likely next week (as it stands today)!!!

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Jeez just popped into the MAD thread and two thoughts crossed my mind....

33AE72BA-830C-49B8-A556-8455BB405ED9.png

C989FB25-A930-48C4-A015-1C04DD8A4B4F.jpeg

Edited by CanadianCoops

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3 minutes ago, James Gold said:

Anyone know what happened to the model banter thread? Just closed...

Mods prob fed up with all the childish bickering

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Just watched the 0756 BBC News weather, and they showed the lying snow on the weather map (where there were clear skies). First time I've seen that. Anyone seen that before? 

Not much to report from it though, apart from its apparently going to be 10C in London on Friday...

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