SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

sometimes that thread can be as silly as say the Express or the Sun etc

That IMO, is because whenever certain people say it's going to snow, too many others simply ask: how deep?

[Ben Lewis]

31 minutes ago, c00ps said:

I think most people seemed to have over egged this event. Especially in here. There were a few who said a week in advance don’t expect more than a few cms in Scotland and rain elsewhere and everyone was slating them in the model thread. As per usual 

But that’s on Netweather - Joe public don’t read this website. 

I was pointing out the media hype from Meto/ BBC forecasting to the nation. Whilst parts of the country had localised freezing rain and parts of Scotland have had a covering of 1-2cm on low ground it was way off of anything BBC breakfast were shouting about this morning. 

According to Meto/BBC yesterday low levels northern England and Scotland should be under 5-15cm of snow by now and that isn’t the case, regardless what net weather forums say. 

[Coopsy]

6 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

But that’s on Netweather - Joe public don’t read this website. 

I was pointing out the media hype from Meto/ BBC forecasting to the nation. Whilst parts of the country had localised freezing rain and parts of Scotland have had a covering of 1-2cm on low ground it was way off of anything BBC breakfast were shouting about this morning. 

According to Meto/BBC yesterday low levels northern England and Scotland should be under 5-15cm of snow by now and that isn’t the case, regardless what net weather forums say. 

I saw one where they were saying up to 40cms in the highlands! I agree very much overdone in the media. I think the bbc have changed who they get their forecast from but still very wrong it seems 

[abruzzi spur]

Lots of build up knocking around for snow today.  As it turned out there was largely nothing wintry in the SE.  Here in Reigate it was cold and dry first thing but never felt like it was right for snow.  The temperature and dewpoint started to rise slowly but inexorably from before 7am and even at our 110m altitude it was rain all the way, even this afternoon when it was chucking it down and you might have thought that evaporative cooling could have played a part.  Anyway, in the grand scheme of things that actually matter I'm past caring if it snows or not, although I'll enjoy it if it happens.  One thing for sure though, weather like we've had today is utter garbage.

[snowrye]

Unable to sleep,so thought id be the 1st to post here today,and at last its stopped raining,certainly had a fair bit lately,but we were always going to pay for the beautiful summer at some point.Im hoping for a nice cold snowy winter,and there seems to be tentative signs that this may happen,I remain optimistic on that particular front,does make you wonder at times,it certainly seems like it requires something extraordinary for us in the southeast to get some of the good stuff,lol

[lassie23]

6 hours ago, c00ps said:

I think most people seemed to have over egged this event. Especially in here. There were a few who said a week in advance don’t expect more than a few cms in Scotland and rain elsewhere and everyone was slating them in the model thread. As per usual 

You are not allowed realism in the MOD thread either, you have to follow a certain number of self-appointed experts in there whose post are mostly in cloud cuckoo land. Then there are those who comment on any and every cherry-picked chart that shows cold but is not backed by any other models and so will never happen. You would have thought that after all this time people would realize that unless you get cross model agreement in a reliable timeframe, then it's not going to happen.

 

[lassie23]

9 hours ago, shotski said:

 

Last one from me as Christmas drinks 

beckons

 

 

 

·

Dec 14

 

Chilly out? You ain't seen nothing yet! JOHN HAMMOND'S MONTH AHEAD #uksnow #WhiteChristmas #ukweather (link: https://weathertrending.com/2018/12/14/john-hammond-month-weather-you-think-this-cold/) weathertrending.com/2018/12/14/joh…

I'm ignoring John Hammond from now on , he is a cold ramper. I remember watching his video last Feb when he said the beast from the east would last at least a month and in four days it was gone lol

Edited December 16, 2018 by lassie23

[snowfish1]

And my take on the offering so far... Utter filth..... Bout time we had some decent stuff 

Edited December 16, 2018 by snowfish1

[Tom Quintavalle]

Morning all

Very uninspiring 00z Model runs, to greet us this morning. The suggested "wedge" of heights developing around Iceland/S.Greenland, seem to have evaporated, now. There's simply too much energy around the southern tip of Greenland, to allow any ridging from an Atlantic High to take hold in that region. A lot of the Models suggesting negative heights to our North and positive heights to our South, a very unfavourable pattern if you're looking for cold, wintry weather.  Also the Polar Vortex, after spending a few weeks over the eastern part of the Northern Hemisphere, looks to be reorganising itself and heading for it's favourite wintering ground of, E.Canada/Greenland.

Anyway after that depressing news, it's way too early to get despondent about wintry prospects, further down the line.

Regards,

Tom. 

[slater]

Morning, 

looks like the general weather pattern for the rest of the month is your typical December mix of mild and odd day of chilly air. Nothing to get to excited about. This follows on excalty like the last 6 Decembers. 

We all seem to forget especially the MODEL forum that our planet is warming the days of long term cold has gone. Only short lived events like “the beast from the east” may only occur every 10 years or so.

The model thread now turning their attention to the new year , but again any of you guys remember 2 months of jan and feb being well below average.?.. apart from 2013 we haven’t seen anything since. 

I may be wrong , but as other posters have pointed out on here I’m sure some of our model guys are feeding the “two weekchart” that always appears to have snow and cold to the daily express. Ha! 

[Kent Blizzard]

Forget Winter, our Snow will arrive in Spring 

I'll take clear and sunny everyday rather than yesterdays cold wind and rain muck, although it was quite funny seeing 6 Elves running along Rainham High St!!....I presume they was on a Christmas Works Do, some were a bit tall and plump to be real ones 

 

Edited December 16, 2018 by Kent Blizzard

[Soaring Hawk]

A beautiful sunrise earlier. Currently:

4C, sunny and blue sky/cloud free

Wind: SSW 6/18 

Pressure: 1007

Humidity: 94% and good visibility 

[Coopsy]

17 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Forget Winter, our Snow will arrive in Spring 

I'll take clear and sunny everyday rather than yesterdays cold wind and rain muck, although it was quite funny seeing 6 Elves running along Rainham High St!!....I presume they was on a Christmas Works Do, some were a bit tall and plump to be real ones 

 

Probably from the cricketers no doubt lol

[seaside 60]

Morning,

well today has started pretty much different to yesterday, lovely start and feels much warmer.

IN regards to yesterdays weather we pretty much got what I expected, wet cold windy rain and never expected anything else regardless of what companies and people were saying.

[Donna3397]

We should always expect the our wonky weather in this country.  Snow in spring, warmth in December maybe it’s all this Brezit business the weather has decided to as undecided as our government.

Edited December 16, 2018 by DonnaThw

[snowrye]

Beautiful morning in progress,hoping the charts give us some festive cheer,but yet again,its not looking too good,have a great sunday folks

[Froze were the Days]

Nice morning some sun and a David Jason touch of frost (still waiting for a first relatively hard air frost) got down to 2.9c this morning, anyway a lot better than yesterday. As for Xmas and a white one - forget it!, William Hill must have now lengthened the odds to 5-1

Edited December 16, 2018 by Froze were the Days

[Tom Quintavalle]

1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

Nice morning some sun and a David Jason touch of frost (still waiting for a first relatively hard air frost) got down to 2.9c this morning, anyway a lot better than yesterday. As for Xmas and a white one - forget it!, William Hill must have now lengthened the odds to 5-1

Hi FwtD,

Hills should lengthen but probably won't. Using my Bookmaking experience, in my estimation the true Odds should be around 14/1 to 16/1, especially as they use Heathrow as the recording station. 

If we were to find ourselves in a N.E to E flow, think there would be more chance of snow at Stansted or Gatwick.

I'll be doing another CHRISTMAS COUNTDOWN with SAMMY SNOWMAN report later, after the GFS 12z.

Regards,

Tom. 

London Heathrow, still between 4/1 and 5/1. Daylight robbery but they'll probably be plenty of Joe Public, willing to take it and they know that!!. See link to Oddschecker below:

https://www.oddschecker.com/novelty/christmas/white-christmas/to-snow-on-christmas-day

Anybody got £25k to put on Wiinipeg, to make a £1k profit? 

Edited December 16, 2018 by TomSE12

[Paul1968]

Lovely day out there compared to yesterday it feels so much warmer although the sky is now starting to become more hazy,oh well more rain coming by the looks of it.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Strange little feature later.. Could be some pesky showers and lively winds around.. See what the 12z shows later.. 

 

 

ukgust (5).webp

ukgust (6).webp

[Tom Quintavalle]

To be on the safe side and an attempt to use reverse psychology, have introduced another "emotion" category for SAMMY SNOWMAN.

               WORRIED

  - LESS THAN 5% PROBABILITY - ODDS - 16/1 or more.

Regards,

Tom. 

[Methuselah]

Donald Trump's made one, too: 

[SLEETY]

think just one decent cold spell this winter will probably be it.Cant see us getting a long prolonged spell this winter.Seem to have a better chance when spring begins ,look at this year and march 2013 

[SenlacJack]

After a bright and promising start today the weather here in St Leonards on Sea soon descended into another dismal grey and dreary afternoon.

I can cope with most types of weather all year round but the very low light levels at this time of year really do have a negative effect on me

[Tom Quintavalle]

CHRISTMAS COUNTDOWN WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN. 

Here is my 4th GFS report on the likely conditions at Noon, on Christmas Day (t216), seen through the eyes of that Model, on today's 12z run.See z500/850hPa charts below:  

High Pressure lies to the West of Ireland, building into the UK. On the basis of this run, Christmas Day should be dry with a decent amount of sunshine but quite cold after a pretty chilly night, once a cold front has cleared through.There would have been a small chance of a a wintry type shower, wandering down to London in the early hours, post cold front.

As I stated this morning, too much energy around the southern tip of Greenland again, on this run. A ridge tries to build towards Greenland on this run but can't quite make it as a low leaving E.Canada bulldozes the ridge, out of the way.

QUE SERA, SERA - (10% - 19% PROBABILITY) - ODDS - 9/1 to 19/5.

- SAMMY is reasonably content as there would be a chill in the air, after a pretty chilly night. He shouldn't suffer too much, from melting. But there would be little chance of anything white falling out of the sky. Knowing Bookmaker's and their reluctance to offer inflated Odds about Novelty wagers, I wouldn't expect Odds to be greater than those that I've quoted.

We really need the Jet Stream to quieten down, coming out of North America!!

Next updates: GFS - TUES 18th DEC. (t168). ECM - TUES 18th DEC. (t168)

Regards,

Tom.