SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Tom Quintavalle]

Up early again with my wife. Poor Colette has got herself talked into doing another 12 hour shift today. That's the third straight 12 hour shift. We really do need the money but my wife has her own health issues and needs to be careful she doesn't over do it!!

Have just watched a recording of W.F.T.W.A., this time with the competent, Nick Miller, as "bluebell", stated above. But no mention of the poor MeteoGroup forecast, of yesterday. As "Lauren" and "Reefseeker", alluded to, the forecast rain didn't show yesterday. That coming after I praised MeteoGroup, for the accuracy of their forecasts, a few days ago. Let's see how they get on, in the week ahead.

Nick started by mentioning the fairly chilly but "benign" weather, we've just experienced but stressed this is all about to change, in the week ahead. Low pressure set to move in, as we go into the new week, accompanied by heavy rain, strong winds but milder temps. But the milder temps offset by the strength of the wind and heavy rain!!

Today, we're still in that "benign" pattern, a light drift from the east, bringing some cloud but perhaps a few sunny spells, just the chance of a few showers, in the extreme S.E. Max. temps. around 9c, for the London area. Monday sees fronts gathering to our west but high pressure still in charge, for one more day. Still fairly chilly with some sunny spells and dry, max. temps around 9c and the wind falling light, by now. Tuesday, low pressure makes a definitive push, against the blocking high. The first front attempts to slowly approach our region, with rain tending to "fizzle", as it does so. Wind starts to pick up from the south with max.temps of around 8c, will feel on the chilly side in the wind. But this first front doesn't make much impact, aside from "opening the door", on what's to come. Wednesday, sees fronts driving right across the country. Pretty active fronts will drag in some milder air, along with a spell of rain and strong S.winds. Sunny spells, once the fronts clear through.Max.temps. significantly higher, at around 11c. Thursday, sees fronts moving towards us fairly rapidly. Another spell of rain, with strong winds and max. temps, of around 12c.We're in a much more mobile set-up by now, with the Atlantic firmly in charge. As we go into next weekend, areas of low pressure move rapidly N.E., across the Atlantic, bringing spells of rain and strong winds, interspersed with sunny spells and showers. 

As we go into the following week, the weather looks to remain unsettled, with rain at times and quite windy. Remaining mild but with cooler interludes, once fronts push through. 

That's my interpretation of the weather for the week ahead, as seen through the eyes of MeteoGroup, for our region. Let's see if their accuracy improves, after yesterday's pretty dismal performance!!

Regards,

Tom.  

[lassie23]

The BBC was spot on, big low stuck in the Atlantic this week controlling our weather with mild southwest winds gales and lots of rain...........lovely

[Methuselah]

Dry, sunny and 7.2C...Tee-shirt weather is back!

[Wimbledon88]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

The BBC was spot on, big low stuck in the Atlantic this week controlling our weather with mild southwest winds gales and lots of rain...........lovely

Agreed. The Metoffice got it totally wrong for this weekend. Bbc always went for rain staying well to south of London. Shouldn't be THAT difficult to forecast in this day and age. 

[lassie23]

1 hour ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Agreed. The Metoffice got it totally wrong for this weekend. Bbc always went for rain staying well to south of London. Shouldn't be THAT difficult to forecast in this day and age. 

You can now see why the BBC went on go compare and changed providers

[Tom Quintavalle]

Up early again with a cuppa and a recording of W.F.T.W,A, again with Nick Miller.

Nothing much to add to yesterday's summary, really. One more day of a light easterly drift, a slightly chilly feel. Max. temps up to 8c, in the London area. Then the abrupt change in weather type for Tuesday, which has been long foretold in the models. Rain could be a bit heavier now for Tuesday for our area, than originally forecast, with max temps. back up in the mild category, at 14c. More wind and rain to come midweek, still mild at 14c but tempered, by the strength of the wind. Perhaps another pulse of heavy rain on Thursday, as a waving front drags its heels over our region.

Perhaps some stronger winds for our region Thursday into Friday, as the next low barrelling across the Atlantic, comes at us on a more southerly track. Rain clears through and the flow turns into the WNW, so a cooler max. temp. of 11c, for the London area. 

As we go into the weekend, the Atlantic firmly in charge by now, although not quite as windy as midweek. But Nick stated that the weather will be more "typical" of late November, moving into early December.

That's my interpretation of the weather for the week ahead, as seen through the eyes of MeteoGroup, for our region. 

Regards,

Tom. 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Not enough emphasis placed on shower activity in the MeteoGroup forecast above, for today.

https://www.buienradar.nl/

A clear line of rain showers streamer.  showing up on the Dutch radar.

Regards,

Tom. 

[Froze were the Days]

Yes folks we've entered the season of cloud and rain and wind - oh joy!...I wonder how a few are feeling that have put out a cold winter long range forecast?...the omens aren't looking good as we enter winter proper!

[Katrine Basso]

On 23/11/2018 at 12:47, TomSE12 said:

Thanks for those kind comments, W88.

Just want to comment on a couple of memorable snow events for our region. The upper air temps (850's), were so low that "Streamers" merged into a great Ocean of snow, that affected all of our region, eventually.

JAN.1987

Probably the most enjoyable snowfall event, I've experienced. And certainly some of the coldest upper air temperatures, that I've seen over our region. With a temperature differential of more than 25c, the atmosphere became very conducive to great swathes of snow, tracking east over our region. Villages and towns in the east of our region, became cut off. Transport links were very badly affected. Parts of the Bromley area received in the region of 9 to 10 inches of level snow. Depths were much greater further East, with huge drifts. The first chart is still my "screensaver", to this day.

FEB.1991

Again, some very cold upper air, less than -16c, cause a huge swathe of snow for our region. It's known as the infamous, "Wrong type of snow" event. The South-East region of British Rail had just purchased a new fleet of trains. The very low temps meant that the snow was very fine and powdery. Driven on by very strong Easterly winds, the very fine snow entered the engines of this new fleet of trains and "blew", the electrics. See link to full explanation, below:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/road-and-rail-transport/9891089/From-the-archive-British-Rail-blames-wrong-type-of-snow-for-delays.html

Now a pet "gripe" from me. I often read on the Model thread, members use the term, "Channel Low". They seem to give any depression that wonders into the body of water, adjacent to our southern coastline, that "handle", irrespective of the time of year. Since I've been interested in Meteorology, in my understanding, the term is used when an area of low pressure tries to make inroads into the UK, with very mild air on its southern flankbut drawing in bitter air from the E/N.E, on its northern flank. To paraphrase Steve Murr, these phenomenon, are as "rare as hen's teeth"(apologies Steve!!). I havn't experienced that many in my lifetime but far and away the Daddy of them all occurred at the end of Dec.1978. See charts below:

30th/31st DEC.1978.

As you can see from these charts, we were so close to receiving just rain but fortunately, stayed on the cold side of the low!! This event was the best/(worst) combination of snow and wind, I've ever witnessed. Got back home to Bromley, after a night out with colleagues in East Dulwich, S.E.London. Our front garden was unrecognisable, so severe was the drifting of the snow. I couldn't make out the pathway to our front door and that wasn't due to alcohol consumption!! 

The following day, New Years Eve was bright and sunny but the very strong easterly wind continued. It was one of the only times I'd seen snow ploughs, on the main road, a little way from our front garden. They were battling in vain to keep the road open, as the strong wind blew huge billows of snow off of rooves and cars, completely covering our main road, time after time. 

So, "Channel Low" is an oft, misused term!! I doubt very much if I will ever see such a fine example, again. Thanks for the trip down "memory lane".

Regards,

Tom. 

 

 

The winters which were memorable as a child were the ones in Ashington in Northumberland between 1966 to 1969. They were perfect and were like a magical winter wonderland. The next winter I remember was when I was at boarding school in Hertfordshire between 1978 to 1979 when my teacher told me that there was 5 foot of snow and at the time I was only just under five foot tall (I am just over 5ft now), so it scared me as I never seen that much snow.  I did not understand that snow became compact and thought I would be swallowed up in the snow.  The next were the winters in the 80's which were enjoyable but sadly the snow was not as deep as it was in the winter of 1978 to 1979.  

[Katrine Basso]

On 24/11/2018 at 14:24, TomSE12 said:

While I was putting together that post about "Snow Streamers" that affect southern portions of our region, it got me thinking as to where I first heard that term. In the depths of my memory, I seem to remember Francis Wilson using the phrase on BBC Breakfast, one morning. A very light snow shower train was tracking into the London area and I'm show he used the term, "streamer"

I really rated Francis, as  Forecaster/Presenter For those of you to young to remember him, Francis started as a Weatherman on Thames TV, then joined BBC Breakfast Time and finally became head of Sky News' Weather Dept. He had a "camp", chatty style of presentation and I think he wasn't taken that seriously. A very solid forecaster though and certainly knew his subject. 

I was thinking who are my favourite forecasters, down the year. I've put together this list of 5:

1, Rob McElwee.2. Michael Fish. 3.Jack Scott. 4. Francis Wilson. 5.Helen Willette.

1. A bit of legend on Netweather and seemingly a "coldie". Who can forget his "And then there's Monday" forecast, during the 2010 Winter. Eyebrows twitching and a glint in his eye!!

2. Our own Mr.Fish!! A very solid forecaster and much maligned for that "Hurricane" forecast, which as we know, he was quite right about. I prefer to remember Michael fondly for a forecast, when he had trouble with the metallic letters, spelling Fog. The F, kept falling off the chart.  At the end of the forecast Michael apologised and innocently said, "Sorry about the F in FOG!! I'm sure a lot of drivers are often weary about the bleep bleep FOG!!  Think it was Michael but could have been, Ian McCaskill??

3. Have to mention one of the old guard. Being 63, I go back a long way and remember J.S., Bert Foord, Bernard Davey  Graham Parker, Bill Giles, etc and of course the first female forecaster, that the Met Office used, Barbara Edwards. Barbara made her first appearance in, Jan 1974. Ten or so years later, Bobby Charlton's daughter Suzanne, started to make a name for herself, as a BBC Forecaster.

4. As I stated above, really rated Francis Wilson. He showed a real passion for his subject and had a real "chatty" style of presentation, with talk of "fluffy bits", etc.

5. I must include one of the ladies here and IMO, Helen Willetts is the finest. Apologies to our own Jo Farrow!! 

I'd like to mention a few others outside of my list. John Kettley, I could've quite easily included. In my local news area, always found that Peter Cockcroft, spoke a lot of sense. Of the younger brigade, Tomasz Hackensacker (Sorry Tom but your forecasts are sometimes a bit Marx Brotherish!!) but I must admit Mr. Schafernaker, is growing on me.  Daniel Corbett, a latter day Francis Wilson ("If you're thinking of taking Granny for a walk in the park, she'll need an extra jumper today"!!) and his ("today's finishing numbers will be".), was always good for a laugh!! Oh Mr.Corbett, half expected Sooty and Sweep to turn up on one of his forecasts!! Must give a mention to Laura Tobin, who I think is the finest forecaster, outside of the BBC. My favourite forecaster on the radio, was Phillip Eden (R.I.P). Always enjoyed his weather slots on London's L.B.C and Radio 5. I have a folder of cut-outs, from his weather column, in the Sunday Telegraph, always worth a read. 

The most annoying weather presenter I've ever seen must be the young lady that used to present the weather after Channel 5 News. All blonde hair and teeth Everything that fell from the sky, was a few showers!! She obviously hadn't heard of frontal rain. Obviously chosen by Channel 5 for other "assets", aside from Meteorological knowledge!! I see Lara is now presenting a programme called "Click", on News 24. Apologies to Ms. Lewington.

Would love to hear from other S.E.Region members of your favourite Weather Forecasters.

Regards,

Tom. 

 

My favourite BBC weather presenter was Carol Kirkwood, Ian McCaskil, Jo Farrow and the Met Office weather forecasters on YouTube.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Katrine Basso]

It is a dreich morning, overcast sky with light cold winds. The temperature is 6°C but feels more like 4°C.

[Dami]

A little bit of rain this morning. Not too cold, was toasty in my new puffer coat, didn't need a scarf. Having a sort before the tree (which won't be even out the loft by the weekend after next) and seeing how much stuff hubs has brought the cat. 

[Wimbledon88]

6 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Up early again with a cuppa and a recording of W.F.T.W,A, again with Nick Miller.

Nothing much to add to yesterday's summary, really. One more day of a light easterly drift, a slightly chilly feel. Max. temps up to 8c, in the London area. Then the abrupt change in weather type for Tuesday, which has been long foretold in the models. Rain could be a bit heavier now for Tuesday for our area, than originally forecast, with max temps. back up in the mild category, at 14c. More wind and rain to come midweek, still mild at 14c but tempered, by the strength of the wind. Perhaps another pulse of heavy rain on Thursday, as a waving front drags its heels over our region.

Perhaps some stronger winds for our region Thursday into Friday, as the next low barrelling across the Atlantic, comes at us on a more southerly track. Rain clears through and the flow turns into the WNW, so a cooler max. temp. of 11c, for the London area. 

As we go into the weekend, the Atlantic firmly in charge by now, although not quite as windy as midweek. But Nick stated that the weather will be more "typical" of late November, moving into early December.

That's my interpretation of the weather for the week ahead, as seen through the eyes of MeteoGroup, for our region. 

Regards,

Tom. 

Cheers for the summary Tom. 

Yes, looking like a lengthy spell of mild wet and rather windy weather on the way.The Atlantic was always going to spring in to life at some stage. Metoffice seem to have dropped the idea(for the time being) of a cold December. 

[Donna3397]

What a dull boring day, cold, damp, windy and by the looks of it were in for a lot more of the same. I would prefer either cold sunny days or stormy days at least it gives us a bit to chat about but this dullness is irritating. 

I have been keeping an eye on the weather in Lapland it seems slightly more interesting than ours 

[Daniel*]

4 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Yes folks we've entered the season of cloud and rain and wind - oh joy!...I wonder how a few are feeling that have put out a cold winter long range forecast?...the omens aren't looking good as we enter winter proper!

First week of December is looking nondescript but good signs of a change to something more anticylonic and colder into week 2 not sure why but I might do a flutter on a white Xmas. Jinxed it. 

[Tom Quintavalle]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

First week of December is looking nondescript but good signs of a change to something more anticylonic and colder into week 2 not sure why but I might do a flutter on a white Xmas. Jinxed it. 

	3/1	Aberdeen (Airport)	3/1	Edinburgh (Airport)	3/1	Glasgow (Airport)
			5/1	Belfast (Int. Airport)	5/1	Leeds (Leeds-Bradford Airport)	5/1	Liverpool (Airport)
			5/1	Manchester (Airport)	6/1	Birmingham (Airport)	6/1	Dublin (Airport)
			8/1	Bristol (Airport)	8/1	Cardiff (Airport)	8/1	London (Airport)
			8/1	Norwich (Airport)	10/1	Penzance (RNAS Culdrose)

Edited November 26, 2018 by TomSE12

[Daniel*]

19 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

	3/1	Aberdeen (Airport)	3/1	Edinburgh (Airport)	3/1	Glasgow (Airport)
			5/1	Belfast (Int. Airport)	5/1	Leeds (Leeds-Bradford Airport)	5/1	Liverpool (Airport)
			5/1	Manchester (Airport)	6/1	Birmingham (Airport)	6/1	Dublin (Airport)
			8/1	Bristol (Airport)	8/1	Cardiff (Airport)	8/1	London (Airport)
			8/1	Norwich (Airport)	10/1	Penzance (RNAS Culdrose)

Our resident bookie 

No white Christmas because of the robins apparently, well so I read, hogwash to that. Might put a tenner on London never experienced a while Xmas snow on ground yes. 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Sorry Daniel, 

Had to post separately as posting those odds, seemed to have upset my cursor. Anyway, the above odds are daylight robbery in my mind, even though you only need one flake, to collect!!

Heathrow  8/1 and Penzance 10/1, they're 'avin' a giraffe!! I'm 63 now and can only remember 2 true White Christmas'. One in the 1970's was a blink and your miss it, affair. Not even 1981, was a true White Christmas. It was deep, crisp, even and very cold, on the day but the snow had fallen on Christmas Eve. Walked home on Christmas night, from my parents home in Bromley back to my first wife in Camberwell, in about 2 to3 inches of snow. Had a row with the Mother-In-Law, who was staying with us at the time and went to spend it with my parents, in Bromley. I missed my son's first Christmas because of it, he was 9 months old at the time. I had to get back to Camberwell, Christmas night, as I had work the following day, for a Bookmaker's in East Dulwich. Boxing Day is a very big day, in the racing calendar. Below is the synoptic chart for Xmas Day, 1981. Right at the end of that bitterly cold, wintry spell:

As you can tell from the above chart, the weather was about to change. Incredibly after such a cold month, to that point, most of the racing survived and went ahead!!

The one true White Xmas I can remember, was 1970. I posted this chart the other day. A  "beaut" of a Thames Streamer, with a coupe of cracks of thunder. See chart below:

Cost myself a couple of hundred pounds (the Xmas expenses!!) , when this N.W. flow was forecast a week out from the "big day", Xmas 2004. Confirmed with Ladbrokes if they would take a multiple bet on 6 or 7 locations and they said they would. Picked out Glasgow, Belfast, Manchester, Liverpool, Dublin, Birmingham and Cardiff. Six out the seven had a White Xmas, I think only Birmingham missed out(the Cheshire Gap Streamer, not coming off.) But didn't have the courage of my convictions and didn't have the bet!! One time when my Meteorological knowledge, could have benefitted me financially. Very painful in the pocket, to view this chart again!!

Think those Odds I quoted in the post above, are scandalous!!

http://www.answers.com/Q/How_many_white_Christmases_did_London_have_in_the_twentieth_century

Looking at that article, the true odds should be at least 14/1, for London and I'm not sure that's over generous!! Have found Bookmaker's to be very "meagre", about this novelty bet!!

Regards,

Tom. 

Edited November 26, 2018 by TomSE12

[tinybill]

looking  a bit wild   on wednesday

 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Morning all,

Having looked at MeteoGroup's extended forecast for our region, essentially nothing much has changed. Transition day today. The weather about to become unsettled, stormy but much milder than of late as we move into December. Ben Rich did mention that after the weekend the weather should begin to settle down again, with High Pressure regaining control.

I'd like to return to my post of last night, prompted by DANIEL's mention of Betting Odds on a White Cristmas for London and my remarking that 8/1, was a ridiculously short price. I received a very interesting PM from Kirkcaldy Weather, a very valued entrant into my "Fantasy" Competitions on the Sports Zone, regarding White Christmases. I'd like to reproduce some of the information from that PM, in this post. This from Wikipedia:

White Christmases in the United Kingdom

Location	Probability[13]
London	6%
Birmingham	15%
Aberporth	9%
Glasgow	35%
Aberdeen	53%
Belfast	22%
Lerwick	75%
Bradford	14% (since 1971)
St Mawgan	10% (since 1957)

Edited November 27, 2018 by TomSE12

[LightningLover]

Very dense fog this morning!

[Tom Quintavalle]

A 6% probability of snow on Christmas Day, equates to about 16/1, in Betting Odds terms. This double the Odds that are on offer, at the moment. If London were to see some falling snow in the weeks leading up to Christmas, you'll see those prohibitive Odds shorten further!! We've all seen the headlines, in that scenario, "Bookies slash Odds on a White Xmas" "Flurries of snow, leads to flurries of bets." Bookmaker's are aware that, average "Joe Public" doesn't have much comprehension about probability and Betting Odds. See below, another part of that PM, I kindly received from Kirkcaldy Weather. This from Wikipedia and a link to some Met Office information, re. White Christmases.

Quote:

"In the United Kingdom, white Christmases were more common from the 1550s to the 1850s, during the Little Ice Age; the last frost fair on the River Thames, however, was in the winter of 1813–14.^[13] The shift from the Julian to the Gregorian calendar in 1752 also slightly reduced the chance of a white Christmas, effectively moving Christmas earlier in the winter.^[14] An "official" white Christmas is defined by the Met Office as "one snowflake to be observed falling in the 24 hours of 25 December somewhere in the UK",^[14] but formerly the snow had to be observed at the Met Office building in London.^[14] By the newer measure, over half of all years have white Christmases, with snow being observed 38 times in the 54 years to 2015.^[14] A more "traditional" idea of snow-covered ground is less common, however, with only 4 occasions in the 51 years to 2015 reporting snow on the ground at 9am at more than 40% of weather stations.^[14]

Although most places in the UK do tend to see some snow in the winter, it generally falls in January and February. However white Christmases do occur, on average every 6 years.^[13]

Christmas 2009 was a white Christmas in some parts of Britain,^[15] with thick lying snow which easterly winds had brought over the previous week. Travel over much of Britain was badly affected by ice and snow on roads, and was made more slippery by partial daytime thaw followed by overnight refreezing. It was the first white Christmas anywhere in the United Kingdom since 2004.^{[16] :}

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/precipitation/snow/white-christmas

If ok with the Forum Hosts, would like to post up my "realistic" Odds on a White Christmas for London, once the "big day" appears on Forecast Models radar. As we know GFS extends out to t384, which is 13th of December at the moment. According to GFS, mild weather holds sway, throughout the run.

if it's ok with the Forum Hosts would like to give my "Probability Odds" a couple of times a week, until the day itself. Similar to "Shake a Santa".

Regards,

Tom.  

[Katrine Basso]

56 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Morning all,

Having looked at MeteoGroup's extended forecast for our region, essentially nothing much has changed. Transition day today. The weather about to become unsettled, stormy but much milder than of late as we move into December. Ben Rich did mention that after the weekend the weather should begin to settle down again, with High Pressure regaining control.

I'd like to return to my post of last night, prompted by DANIEL's mention of Betting Odds on a White Cristmas for London and my remarking that 8/1, was a ridiculously short price. I received a very interesting PM from Kirkcaldy Weather, a very valued entrant into my "Fantasy" Competitions on the Sports Zone, regarding White Christmases. I'd like to reproduce some of the information from that PM, in this post. This from Wikipedia:

White Christmases in the United Kingdom

Location	Probability[13]
London	6%
Birmingham	15%
Aberporth	9%
Glasgow	35%
Aberdeen	53%
Belfast	22%
Lerwick	75%
Bradford	14% (since 1971)
St Mawgan	10% (since 1957)

I would guess that communities in the Cairngorms area of Scotland would have a higher chance of getting a white Christmas than any other place in the United Kingdom. The main town in the Cairngorms is Aviemore and the coldest places in the Cairngorms is Braemar.

[Katrine Basso]

It is another dreich morning with patchy fog.  There has only been one year when there has been very dense fog in Thurrock and that was in May 2004 or 2005 where I was going from my parents in a sheltered housing complex which was 10 minutes walk away from my flat in South Ockendon and I kept on walking in circles as I was unable to see the way back to my flat.  It took half an hour to get back to my flat as the fog was thick.

Edited November 27, 2018 by Katrine Basso
Added information

[Wimbledon88]

Very foggy here in SW19 . Quite unusual given the radar returns are showing quite active front just to our west. 4c. 

Last of the chilly morning for a while. Proper autumn weather on way now from the west/south west. Plenty of wind and rain. Mild temperatures too. 

Should reach 100% rainfall for November after a succession of drier than average months.