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Roger J Smith

November 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

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Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

9.4C to the 20th... +1.7 (5.6: -0.6)
9.2C to the 21st... +1.5 (4.3: -1.5)
8.9C to the 22nd... +1.3 (2.5: -3.3)
8.7C to the 23rd... +1.2 (4.7: -1.1)
8.6C to the 24th... +1.1 (5.9: +0.0)
8.5C to the 25th... +1.1 (5.9: -0.4)
8.4C to the 26th... +1.0 (5.6: -0.6)
8.2C to the 27th... +0.9 (3.1: -2.9)
8.1C to the 28th... +0.9 (6.8: +1.0)
8.1C to the 29th... +1.0 (8.9: +3.4)
8.1C to the 30th... +1.0 (7.3: +1.5)

The remaining days of the month, from today, look like being pretty close to the 81-10 average for the time of year. As such, an above average finish overall looks very likely, even after corrections.

Nov19.thumb.JPG.7cc8a4e729f917ba2e9dcd147b23a44d.JPG  Nov19MM.thumb.JPG.2b030dcfebb3e55a060214eaccf8c710.JPG

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Sunny Sheffield at 8.2C +0.3C above normal. Rainfall 48.6mm 61.2% of the monthly average. 

Edited by The PIT

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9 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

No update to the 20th still awaiting an update for yesterday (21st)

Maybe check your cache as I saw one yesterday and there's one there today.

Yesterday they had 9.4 (to 20th).

Today is 9.1 (to 21st)

2.1 above 1961-90

1.4 above 1981-2010. 

Edited by Roger J Smith

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1 minute ago, Roger J Smith said:

Maybe check your cache as I saw one yesterday and there's one there today.

Yesterday they had 9.4 (to 20th).

Today is 9.1 (to 21st)

2.1 above 1961-80

1.4 above 1981-2010. 

Strange as I've tried 3 browsers and they are all on the 19th

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Meanwhile, 65 mm as of 20th (Hadley EWP) and models looking a bit wetter now, final value could be 90-110 mm possibly, if systems late in the month deliver 10-20 mm amounts. Dribs and drabs before those (and 21st not included yet either). 

Looking pretty comfortable for Singularity to retain his lead now, a dry November would have put some stress on that (in the Hadley scoring more so than NCIC where he's got almost a full month's lead on points). 

The link for that is here:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadukp/charts/charts.html

(possibly 🙂 )

 

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Good, I think there are a lot of different portals out there, into Hadley products, and sometimes they play tricks on me as well. Maybe all the different portals are not updating at the same time? Just luck of the draw. I've seen people quoting final CET posts that I can't see for hours myself. 

 

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8.8c to the 22nd

1.2 above the 61 to 90 average
1.7 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current low this month 6.8c to the 1st & 2nd

Current high this month 10.0c to the 16th *No data received for the 10th*

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Sunny Sheffield at 7.9C +0.1C above normal. Rainfall 55.6mm 70% of the monthly average.

Looking at the GFS and this suggests we should finish around 7.4C so a mild month just.

Edited by The PIT

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Yes, you noticed how close that projection was to my forecast, so a huge downward correction is pretty much guaranteed, why stop at 0.5?

This is an interesting little addition to the CET historical file:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/73431-daily-cet-average-values-1772-2011/?page=4

It shows the "reverse extreme" records for each month, the highest minimum daily CET value and the lowest maximum.

Almost the same value for November, the highest min was 6.3 in 2011 and the lowest max was 6.2 well back in the past.

We've come close a few times this past few years (July had second highest minimum value to 1783, March 2013 was third lowest max and Feb 2014 was third highest minimum). 

The biggest surprise (to me) in this list would be December 1933, which had the lowest maximum (if you disregard 1786, see why in the table). It wasn't the coldest December by any stretch but it never got past 3.4 C. 

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I found this interesting also, call it the "tyranny of the calendar."

We all probably know that Dec 2010 was second to Dec 1890 by a tenth of a degree.

But if there had been 31-day months ending each day from 21 December to 30 December, 2010 would have been the coldest "month" throughout that period. This is how it breaks down:

Date _____ 2010 avg (31d) ___ either colder, or second coldest

19 Nov-19 Dec __ 0.4 ________ 0.1 (1879) -- colder

20 Nov-20 Dec __ 0.0 ________--0.2 (1879) -- colder

21 Nov-21 Dec __--0.4 _______--0.2 (1879)

22 Nov-22 Dec __--0.6 _______--0.1 (1879)

23 Nov-23 Dec __--0.9 _______--0.3 (1878)

24 Nov-24 Dec __--1.1 _______--0.5 (1878, 1890)

25 Nov-25 Dec __--1.4 _______--0.8 (1878, 1890)

26 Nov-26 Dec __--1.5 _______--0.9 (1878, 1890)

27 Nov-27 Dec __--1.5 _______--0.9 (1878)

28 Nov-28 Dec __--1.4 _______--0.8 (1878, 1890)

29 Nov-29 Dec __--1.1 _______--0.8 (1878) 1796 was --0.7 its closest approach

30 Nov-30 Dec __--0.9 _______--0.8 (1890)

01 Dec-31 Dec __--0.7 _______--0.8 (1890) -- colder

_____________________________________________________

So the cold spell of 2010 did set some records for those 10 consecutive 31-day intervals. 

 

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57 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Yes, you noticed how close that projection was to my forecast, so a huge downward correction is pretty much guaranteed, why stop at 0.5?

This is an interesting little addition to the CET historical file:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/73431-daily-cet-average-values-1772-2011/?page=4

It shows the "reverse extreme" records for each month, the highest minimum daily CET value and the lowest maximum.

Almost the same value for November, the highest min was 6.3 in 2011 and the lowest max was 6.2 well back in the past.

We've come close a few times this past few years (July had second highest minimum value to 1783, March 2013 was third lowest max and Feb 2014 was third highest minimum). 

The biggest surprise (to me) in this list would be December 1933, which had the lowest maximum (if you disregard 1786, see why in the table). It wasn't the coldest December by any stretch but it never got past 3.4 C. 

😀

7.9 any good?...

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Noting two errors by the way in the preliminary table of entries (page 3, 1st of Nov 0005h) one of which I noticed and corrected in the contest thread, the other one I just found now. 

J10 has 94 mm not 74 mm as that table says -- corrected in contest thread. 

Mulzy has 89 mm, overlooked in both cases. 

(I always check regulars for entries at scoring time usually).

Reason I caught Mulzy was that I was looking for a good forecast candidate for taking the double this month and Mulzy is at 7.6, 89 mm.

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8.6c to the 23rd

1.6 above the 61 to 90 average
1.1 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current low this month 6.8c to the 1st & 2nd

Current high this month 10.0c to the 16th *No data received for the 10th*

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7.8c here to the 23rd, 0.9c above the 1981-2010 average.

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I said all along when the coldies were on here suggesting a below average month that this cold air just wasn't going to sustain itself until the end of the month.

It hasn't been all the cold anyway over the past few days- we've only had one air frost here. Today is a beautiful day here and pretty mild.

Next week we will probably have some days in the 'very mild' category before the month is out.

The setup was never going to allow for a prolonged spell of really cold weather. Amazingly I even heard 2010 mentioned a few times in the model thread. This spell is not even in the same league as the second half of November 2010!

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Sunny Sheffield on 7.7C bang on average. Rainfall 56.1mm 70.7% of the monthly average.  

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1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

I said all along when the coldies were on here suggesting a below average month that this cold air just wasn't going to sustain itself until the end of the month.

It hasn't been all the cold anyway over the past few days- we've only had one air frost here. Today is a beautiful day here and pretty mild.

Next week we will probably have some days in the 'very mild' category before the month is out.

The setup was never going to allow for a prolonged spell of really cold weather. Amazingly I even heard 2010 mentioned a few times in the model thread. This spell is not even in the same league as the second half of November 2010!

Don’t think anyone ever suggested this cold spell would compare with Nov 2010.

Edited by prolongedSnowLover

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3 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Don’t think anyone ever suggested this cold spell would compare with Nov 2010.

You underestimate model thread ramping.

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57 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

You underestimate model thread ramping.

This thread is very different though SB.

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2 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

This thread is very different though SB.

Ah, true in this section.

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