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Roger J Smith

November 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

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CET November 1981-2010 averages and 1772-2017 extremes

______________________________________________________

 

Date ____ CET mean __ CET cum ____ MAX _________ MIN

 

01 Nov ___ 9.5 ______ 9.5 ________ 13.5 (1894,1982) __1.5 (1836)
02 Nov ___ 9.0 ______ 9.2 ________ 14.3 (1821) ______ 0.5 (1880)
03 Nov ___ 9.0 ______ 9.2 ________ 15.0 (1996) ______ 1.9 (1820)
04 Nov ___ 8.5 ______ 9.0 ________ 14.2 (1946) ______ 0.8 (1845&1848)
05 Nov ___ 8.3 ______ 8.9 ________ 15.4 (1938) ______ 0.8 (1802)

06 Nov ___ 8.2 ______ 8.7 ________ 14.3 (2015) ______ 0.6 (1868) __ was 13.4 (1772)
07 Nov ___ 8.3 ______ 8.7 ________ 13.8 (2015) _____ -0.6 (1791) __ was 13.3 (1772)
08 Nov ___ 8.7 ______ 8.7 ________ 13.4 (1852) _____ -1.2 (1812)
09 Nov ___ 8.1 ______ 8.6 ________ 12.5 (1988) _____ -0.5 (1921)
10 Nov ___ 7.9 ______ 8.6 ________ 13.4 (1977) ______ 0.1 (1812) __ 13.3 (2015) almost

11 Nov ___ 8.3 ______ 8.5 ________ 13.9 (2015) ______ 0.3 (1828) __ was 13.0 (2005)
12 Nov ___ 8.2 ______ 8.5 ________ 13.8 (1938,1947)_ -1.4 (1919)
13 Nov ___ 7.2 ______ 8.4 ________ 14.6 (1938) _____ -1.1 (1862)
14 Nov ___ 6.8 ______ 8.3 ________ 13.4 (1938) _____ -1.1 (1925)
15 Nov ___ 6.8 ______ 8.2 ________ 13.5 (1821) _____ -2.1 (1965)

16 Nov ___ 6.8 ______ 8.1 ________ 13.4 (1997) _____ -2.9 (1901)
17 Nov ___ 6.4 ______ 8.0 ________ 13.1 (1997) _____ -2.0 (1841)
18 Nov ___ 6.7 ______ 7.9 ________ 12.2 (1978) _____ -1.6 (1887)
19 Nov ___ 6.4 ______ 7.9 ________ 12.7 (1994) _____ -2.1 (1815)
20 Nov ___ 6.2 ______ 7.8 ________ 12.8 (2009) _____ -1.2 (1829)

21 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.7 ________ 13.7 (1947) _____ -1.4 (1880)
22 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.6 ________ 14.4 (1947) _____ -2.3 (1773) ___ 12.8 in 2017 (max)
23 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.5 ________ 13.3 (1947) _____ -4.2 (1858)
24 Nov ___ 5.9 ______ 7.4 ________ 12.7 (1980) _____ -4.6 (1904)
25 Nov ___ 6.3 ______ 7.4 ________ 12.1 (1964) _____ -1.5 (1923)

26 Nov ___ 6.2 ______ 7.3 ________ 12.1 (1983) _____ -1.7 (1904)
27 Nov ___ 6.0 ______ 7.3 ________ 11.3 (1818) _____ -2.6 (1915)
28 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.2 ________ 12.0 (1828) _____ -4.0 (2010)
29 Nov ___ 5.5 ______ 7.2 ________ 12.2 (1818) _____ -2.6 (1801)
30 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.1 ________ 12.4 (2001) _____ -1.7 (1973) ____ 1.1 in 2017 (min)

_________________________________________________________________

Last year the mean CET was 6.8 and there were only five days 10.0 or higher.

1772 has lost three record highs to this decade since Oct 31, 2014, then the two noted above in Nov 2015.

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6.8c to the 1st

2.3c below the 61 to 90 average
2.7c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

 

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4 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

7.1c and 66 mm

 

BFTP

Is that a new entry you want (with the 2 days late penalty) or would you rather stay at 6.6 C and 60 mm as per the earlier entry? Just wondering as I will be making up the tables tomorrow. Not saying you forgot the earlier entry, but it happens (and I get a message later about it) so thought I would check as these changes are fairly small (if you're right, you'll end up scoring just a tad higher after the late penalties). 

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20 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

CET November 1981-2010 averages and 1772-2017 extremes

______________________________________________________

 

Date ____ CET mean __ CET cum ____ MAX _________ MIN

 

01 Nov ___ 9.5 ______ 9.5 ________ 13.5 (1894,1982) __1.5 (1836)
02 Nov ___ 9.0 ______ 9.2 ________ 14.3 (1821) ______ 0.5 (1880)
03 Nov ___ 9.0 ______ 9.2 ________ 15.0 (1996) ______ 1.9 (1820)
04 Nov ___ 8.5 ______ 9.0 ________ 14.2 (1946) ______ 0.8 (1845&1848)
05 Nov ___ 8.3 ______ 8.9 ________ 15.4 (1938) ______ 0.8 (1802)

06 Nov ___ 8.2 ______ 8.7 ________ 14.3 (2015) ______ 0.6 (1868) __ was 13.4 (1772)
07 Nov ___ 8.3 ______ 8.7 ________ 13.8 (2015) _____ -0.6 (1791) __ was 13.3 (1772)
08 Nov ___ 8.7 ______ 8.7 ________ 13.4 (1852) _____ -1.2 (1812)
09 Nov ___ 8.1 ______ 8.6 ________ 12.5 (1988) _____ -0.5 (1921)
10 Nov ___ 7.9 ______ 8.6 ________ 13.4 (1977) ______ 0.1 (1812) __ 13.3 (2015) almost

11 Nov ___ 8.3 ______ 8.5 ________ 13.9 (2015) ______ 0.3 (1828) __ was 13.0 (2005)
12 Nov ___ 8.2 ______ 8.5 ________ 13.8 (1938,1947)_ -1.4 (1919)
13 Nov ___ 7.2 ______ 8.4 ________ 14.6 (1938) _____ -1.1 (1862)
14 Nov ___ 6.8 ______ 8.3 ________ 13.4 (1938) _____ -1.1 (1925)
15 Nov ___ 6.8 ______ 8.2 ________ 13.5 (1821) _____ -2.1 (1965)

16 Nov ___ 6.8 ______ 8.1 ________ 13.4 (1997) _____ -2.9 (1901)
17 Nov ___ 6.4 ______ 8.0 ________ 13.1 (1997) _____ -2.0 (1841)
18 Nov ___ 6.7 ______ 7.9 ________ 12.2 (1978) _____ -1.6 (1887)
19 Nov ___ 6.4 ______ 7.9 ________ 12.7 (1994) _____ -2.1 (1815)
20 Nov ___ 6.2 ______ 7.8 ________ 12.8 (2009) _____ -1.2 (1829)

21 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.7 ________ 13.7 (1947) _____ -1.4 (1880)
22 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.6 ________ 14.4 (1947) _____ -2.3 (1773) ___ 12.8 in 2017 (max)
23 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.5 ________ 13.3 (1947) _____ -4.2 (1858)
24 Nov ___ 5.9 ______ 7.4 ________ 12.7 (1980) _____ -4.6 (1904)
25 Nov ___ 6.3 ______ 7.4 ________ 12.1 (1964) _____ -1.5 (1923)

26 Nov ___ 6.2 ______ 7.3 ________ 12.1 (1983) _____ -1.7 (1904)
27 Nov ___ 6.0 ______ 7.3 ________ 11.3 (1818) _____ -2.6 (1915)
28 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.2 ________ 12.0 (1828) _____ -4.0 (2010)
29 Nov ___ 5.5 ______ 7.2 ________ 12.2 (1818) _____ -2.6 (1801)
30 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.1 ________ 12.4 (2001) _____ -1.7 (1973) ____ 1.1 in 2017 (min)

_________________________________________________________________

Last year the mean CET was 6.8 and there were only five days 10.0 or higher.

1772 has lost three record highs to this decade since Oct 31, 2014, then the two noted above in Nov 2015.

Thanks as always Roger, interesting to note that we have no -3.x daily records but three -4.x ones (1858, 1904, 2010).

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2 hours ago, Relativistic said:

Thanks as always Roger, interesting to note that we have no -3.x daily records but three -4.x ones (1858, 1904, 2010).

Also Rog and Rel.

Note that it has taken nearly 250years to even reach the levels of warmth recorded in 1772.

We are used to seeing cold records for the 18th century, but this indicates that large changes were also taking place at that time.

MIA 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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4 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Is that a new entry you want (with the 2 days late penalty) or would you rather stay at 6.6 C and 60 mm as per the earlier entry? Just wondering as I will be making up the tables tomorrow. Not saying you forgot the earlier entry, but it happens (and I get a message later about it) so thought I would check as these changes are fairly small (if you're right, you'll end up scoring just a tad higher after the late penalties). 

Thought I hadn’t posted it, leave it as it is...even though I think higher will score.

 

cheers Roger

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2 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Also Rog and Rel.

Note that it has taken nearly 250years to even reach the levels of warmth recorded in 1772.

We are used to seeing cold records for the 18th century, but this indicates that large changes were also taking place at that time.

MIA 

They must have been banging on about global warming in the 1770s, when you look at how warm it was at times, there were monthly records that were set in March 1777 and April 1775, the first of them fell to 2017 but the April record survives to this day. The warmth at end of October 1772 and into early November must have been enjoyable in those days before central heating. Also Feb 1779 still the warmest February on record.

The 18th century has some interesting variations in general, proving I think that natural variability should not be played down as we search for answers to what's happening now and what will happen down the road. After the cold cold Maunder to about 1709 (that winter was even colder in France relatively), it suddenly warmed up quite a lot from 1710 to 1739, then came the extreme cold year of 1740 (both winter and October set records), still rather cold through large parts of the 1740s to 1760s although with the odd warmer event, with the 1770s starting a more highly variable sort of pattern, not just the warmth I mentioned above, but severe cold in January 1776 and 1780. The rest of the 1780s kept up this high variability although with cold winning out more often. There are many surviving cold records from 1784-86. The years 1790 to 1794 were rather bland and mild, then 1795 started a new trend (which we now associate with the Dalton sunspot minimum) that saw cold frequently dominant from about 1795 to 1845. 

I won't write a similar treatise on the 19th century but it had its share of big ups and downs also. And not a greenhouse gas emission in sight for most of those decades. So we can get to sudden warmings without human intervention. The question is whether we can get back to sudden coolings. Then 2010 provided a partial answer. I continue to think there is certainly some merit to the AGW theory but caution is needed in assigning it a dominant role, given what's happened out of the blue in the past. 

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An odd thing about the Dalton minimum was that while cold was certainly the dominant feature (winters were every bit as cold as the Maunder minimum), occasionally it got quite warm. These months between 1795 and 1835 show that record warmth was quite possible with the low solar background (I've noticed that the Sun got active around 1837-38 before the climate showed much response perhaps by the next peak in 1848). 

WARMEST MONTHS in the DALTON MINIMUM PERIOD 1795 to 1835 (approx)

JAN _ 7.3 1796 _ tied 2nd warmest, 7.1 1834 _ 4th warmest

FEB _ 6.5 1815 _ tied 19th warmest (1794 was 7.2, 5th warmest)

MAR _ 7.8 1822 _ 17th warmest

APR _ 10.4 1798 _ 4th warmest

MAY _ 15.1 1833 _ warmest

JUN _ 17.3 1826 _ 3rd warmest __ 17.1 1822 _ 4th warmest

JUL _ 18.4 1808 _ tied 9th warmest __ very warm first half July 1826

AUG _ 17.9 1826 _ tied 12th warmest __ summer 1826 was 2nd warmest

SEP _ 15.1 1825 _ tied 19th warmest

OCT _ 12.7 1831 _ 7th warmest

NOV _ 9.5 1818 _ tied 3rd warmest, 9.1 1817 _ 8th warmest

DEC _ 7.4 1828 _ tied 8th warmest

______________________________________

So the Dalton era managed to produce top ten warmest months (to this date) in eight of twelve months. 

It managed a top twenty in every month. 

There's more to these solar minimum periods than just cold. The comparison to the Maunder is interesting. There are several months that don't have a top 30 listing before 1710, the spring and autumn are most warmth-challenged. The only top ten month in the years 1659 to 1709 was June 1676 (18.0, 2nd warmest). Jan 1686 was tied 11th and then Dec 1710 managed a tie for 5th. 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

An odd thing about the Dalton minimum was that while cold was certainly the dominant feature (winters were every bit as cold as the Maunder minimum), occasionally it got quite warm. These months between 1795 and 1835 show that record warmth was quite possible with the low solar background (I've noticed that the Sun got active around 1837-38 before the climate showed much response perhaps by the next peak in 1848). 

WARMEST MONTHS in the DALTON MINIMUM PERIOD 1795 to 1835 (approx)

JAN _ 7.3 1796 _ tied 2nd warmest, 7.1 1834 _ 4th warmest

FEB _ 6.5 1815 _ tied 19th warmest (1794 was 7.2, 5th warmest)

MAR _ 7.8 1822 _ 17th warmest

APR _ 10.4 1798 _ 4th warmest

MAY _ 15.1 1833 _ warmest

JUN _ 17.3 1826 _ 3rd warmest __ 17.1 1822 _ 4th warmest

JUL _ 18.4 1808 _ tied 9th warmest __ very warm first half July 1826

AUG _ 17.9 1826 _ tied 12th warmest __ summer 1826 was 2nd warmest

SEP _ 15.1 1825 _ tied 19th warmest

OCT _ 12.7 1831 _ 7th warmest

NOV _ 9.5 1818 _ tied 3rd warmest, 9.1 1817 _ 8th warmest

DEC _ 7.4 1828 _ tied 8th warmest

______________________________________

So the Dalton era managed to produce top ten warmest months (to this date) in eight of twelve months. 

It managed a top twenty in every month. 

There's more to these solar minimum periods than just cold. The comparison to the Maunder is interesting. There are several months that don't have a top 30 listing before 1710, the spring and autumn are most warmth-challenged. The only top ten month in the years 1659 to 1709 was June 1676 (18.0, 2nd warmest). Jan 1686 was tied 11th and then Dec 1710 managed a tie for 5th. 

 

 

 

Huge swings in the very meridional jetstream Roger?  

 

BFTP

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30 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Huge swings in the very meridional jetstream Roger?  

 

BFTP

Looks a bit like what is happening now if it was this varied.

MIA

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This is my guess too, lower energy available allowed the atmosphere to play games with the jet stream and it can't be cold everywhere unless the incoming heat energy really drops off as it did apparently from 1670 to 1709 (what's interesting about the 1660s is that the Maunder hadn't really completely set in and you can see it looks a bit like the early 20th century rather than the cold cold patterns later). 

The mid-19th century has more signs of a cold zonal bias indicating that perhaps as energy returned from solar activity increasing, it took decades to restore the balance of more average variations, possibly around the 1870s but then another solar downturn postponed any real warming until after 1920. 

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6.8c to the 2nd

2.3c below the 61 to 90 average
2.4c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current low this month 6.8c to the 1st & 2nd

Current high this month 6.8c to the 1st & 2nd

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Up we go now, how high can we get though? Coldest days might possibly turn out to be the 1st two of the month, or will we get a cold or very cold period towards the end, interesting month this.

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Here we go again after 3 very average months.

4.4c here to the 2nd, 4.2c below the 1981-2010 average.

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Not quite end of the third day yet, but if any further entries after this post, will note them at end of tables of entries which are now posted here:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=10

Median forecasts are 6.9 C and 84 mm (slightly cooler and drier than average). 

 

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7.6c to the 3rd

1.2c below the 61 to 90 average
1.6c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current low this month 6.8c to the 1st & 2nd

Current high this month 7.6c to the 3rd

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On ‎03‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 14:03, snowray said:

Up we go now, how high can we get though? Coldest days might possibly turn out to be the 1st two of the month, or will we get a cold or very cold period towards the end, interesting month this.

If the jet gets much slacker we`ll get a cold surface SEly flow. 

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6.6c here to the 3rd, 2.0c below the 1981-2010 average.

I suspect we will be back at average or above within a few days.

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It would be nice to get the coldest autumn of the century for a change but for that we need to beat autumn 2010s 9.77C and for that, November 2018 must finish no warmer than 5C.

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