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Paul

Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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^^

Indeed - and they aint that far away either now.

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JMA an absolute snorter aswell.

JN264-21_odq1.GIF

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EC clusters 1 and 2 tonight would promise a good northerly for at least a day or two. That's 80% of the ensembles. 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018101912_168.

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Looks to be growing support for a brief northerly next weekend.

I do love working nights as we reach Autumn / winter as i get 1st glimpse of the 00z runs.

And yes everyone at work thinks i'm strange !! 🤓

 

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who fancy snow down  the east coast:cold::cold:

gens-16-1-228.png

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30 minutes ago, tinybill said:

who fancy snow down  the east coast:cold::cold:

gens-16-1-228.png

As good as that chart looks, there won't be snow down the E coast at this point because N Sea SSTs are just too warm. So with uppers of -6 you have no chance.

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34 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

As good as that chart looks, there won't be snow down the E coast at this point because N Sea SSTs are just too warm. So with uppers of -6 you have no chance.

Could be plenty at elevation in the north though 😃, with poss blizzards I imagine - if it were to verify of course 

Edited by Ali1977

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

384 - possibly the biggest NAO /AO block in recorded history

BE7B107A-B45B-482A-9C4F-B74B3B234351.thumb.png.fee5309bc4bf1161a92d07a86d5b0397.png

Nice chart, it seems like forever when we last had a really cold - even a frost on bonfire night. Could be diff this year. 

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14 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Nice chart, it seems like forever when we last had a really cold - even a frost on bonfire night. Could be diff this year. 

You can have fun trying to light one 🔥  in four inches of snow 😉 

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Still a bit early as @CreweCold says for anything low level, especially down south. Higher elevations looking good for somE of the white stuff in a weeks time!

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This is looking a potential unique build up.  Brief cold Northerly (definitely will deliver wintryness to Scotland and Northumberland) then a reload to something more substantial.  I think it’s very plausible with what appears to be a strong retrogressive signal.  

 

BFTP

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ECM keeps the high pressure over Europe which is something we have known too well in recent years.

Edited by daz_4

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What I wouldn’t give to be seeing this in a months time 😂

Still, it’s nice to jump back into snow watch with my fellow coldies this early in the season. (Hope you’ve had a good summer guys, it’s good to be back in good company).

Looks like we have plenty of reloads being suggested and I’m crossing everything that this gives us a better early chance at the white stuff in a few weeks time

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7 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

JMA an absolute snorter aswell.

JN264-21_odq1.GIF

Kinda looks like the Western Atlantic ridge on that run is sticking its tongue out at the Vortex! 

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I don't recall such an early shot at cold over many years. Usually the end of October is more notable for being very unsettled.

For me the major plus is the Met being on board. The signal must be very strong for height rises to our North in early November.

2010, eventhough a shock at the time, is a reminder of how mid November can indeed deliver the goods

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Anyway, ECM looks cold and dry as we head through next week,decent northerly with some snow showers in northern scotland by day 7, esp places with altitude.

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..

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We don’t really allow swearing on the forum to be honest - not just on the model thread, but other areas of the forum, so just a reminder for next time. Cheers guys. :)

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UKMO at D7 has a NE'ly with quite a bit of precipitation

ukm2.2018102700_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.3efef6ae92e28790e92e2f3cd23b088f.png

GFS at the same time has high pressure much closer thus limiting the precipitation

gfs2.2018102700_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.cf8390184d6bc7aa6d9d6201ffbf2e9b.png

ECM has a full-on northerly

ECMOPEU00_168_1.thumb.png.938881f959b4595eecf019e8b9f0f2c2.png

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Lovely EC mean showing the northerly through next weekend, bit of a shame its not a week later as that would be excellent Bonfire night weather - brisk north wind and temps probably not far from zero at night.

I'm speculating Exeter are seeing the jet to remain south of the UK thereafter with some sort of block over or to the north of the UK, there is enough in the mean to me to suggest there maybe a further attempt at Atlantic retrogression for the beginning of November, ie rinse and repeat of the upcoming pattern.

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Lovely EC mean showing the northerly through next weekend, bit of a shame its not a week later as that would be excellent Bonfire night weather - brisk north wind and temps probably not far from zero at night.

I'm speculating Exeter are seeing the jet to remain south of the UK thereafter with some sort of block over or to the north of the UK, there is enough in the mean to me to suggest there maybe a further attempt at Atlantic retrogression for the beginning of November, ie rinse and repeat of the upcoming pattern.

Looking good for a reload afterwards with even better heights more up into Greenland.

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As Steve comments, amazing gfs fi op on a hemispheric scale.......

anyone knows when it disappears and the gfsp replaces it ?????

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2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

384 - possibly the biggest NAO /AO block in recorded history

BE7B107A-B45B-482A-9C4F-B74B3B234351.thumb.png.fee5309bc4bf1161a92d07a86d5b0397.png

Why not after the record breaking stratospheric warming earlier in the year.

Nao and ao been positive for sometime.

I'm confident on a nao ao flip negative.

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All I have to say about these charts from the Ecm 00z ensemble mean is.....B A N K!!😍❄️😀:cold:☃️

EDM1-168.gif

EDM0-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM0-192.gif

EDM0-216.gif

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