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Paul

Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Just a word of caution though - thats a huge PV formed, it only  needs that to move to Greenland (which happens all the time in winters) and we would be staring down the barrel of weeks of zonality.

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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Look whats lurking on the continent - hello -12c isotherm.

gfsnh-1-348_yhs8.png

aye and this beaut on the GEM (very similar to last night's JMA): 

gemnh-12-240.png?12

Agree though re risks, as ever things need to fall more or less exactly in the right place or it will go south. That said, both GFS and GEM offer indications that retrogression is, from the points outlined above, as likely as a "breakdown". All conjecture though, the signs remain. 

Edited by ITSY

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just a word of caution though - thats a huge PV formed, it only  needs that to move to Greenland (which happens all the time in winters) and we would be staring down the barrel of weeks of zonality.

huh????

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My geography might be pants but the PV is over Greenland in FI ?

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

huh????

What i mean is with that much forcing to the North, the cold could go into Central or even southern Europe and we could either be anticyclonic or even worse zonal.

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just a word of caution though - thats a huge PV formed, it only  needs that to move to Greenland (which happens all the time in winters) and we would be staring down the barrel of weeks of zonality.

The thing is, we’ve seen how things can develop and occur very quickly! The cold back in February was very sudden and as I’ve said before, it was weirdly still and quite warm a couple of days before the easterly onslaught. 

It’ll probably look different come next run, but that high on the last few frames looked to be a retrogresser, often the case when you get an inverted setup with cold cutting under westwards beneath the high. 

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1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

My geography might be pants but the PV is over Greenland in FI ?

Not quite - there is a lobe just to the North of Greenland but the largest sector is stretching from the pole to siberia.

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11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not quite - there is a lobe just to the North of Greenland but the largest sector is stretching from the pole to siberia.

Im not going to concern myself with the PV when we are looking at a strong anticyclone buliding to our NE .. 🙂

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32 minutes ago, ITSY said:

aye and this beaut on the GEM (very similar to last night's JMA😞

gemnh-12-240.png?12

Agree though re risks, as ever things need to fall more or less exactly in the right place or it will go south. That said, both GFS and GEM offer indications that retrogression is, from the points outlined above, as likely as a "breakdown". All conjecture though, the signs remain. 

Which leads us towards the $64,000 question: will tonight's JMA be anything like last night's JMA?:crazy:

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16 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Trust me, that's not a tropospheric vortex that's about to set up shop for the duration. More the exact opposite, particularly when you look at what's going on in the stratosphere. 

Think lorries about to jacknife.

Im sure @bluearmy mentioned similar a few weeks back , big structure build on dodgey foundation 

good to see you back @Glacier Point parallel with the National Hunt season starting 😉 

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26 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im not going to concern myself with the PV when we are looking at a strong anticyclone buliding to our NE .. 🙂

deepest FI anyway, but wouldn't it lead to a sinker

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PTB 4 is a bit filthy tonight 

gensnh-4-1-192.png

gensnh-4-1-288.png

gensnh-4-1-372.png

Edited by ITSY

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7 minutes ago, ITSY said:

PTB 4 is a bit filthy tonight 

gensnh-4-1-192.png

gensnh-4-1-288.png

gensnh-4-1-372.png

P9 not to dissimilar either😉

Screenshot_20181108-180156_Chrome.jpg

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38 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Trust me, that's not a tropospheric vortex that's about to set up shop for the duration. More the exact opposite, particularly when you look at what's going on in the stratosphere. 

Think lorries about to jacknife.

Thanks Stewart, must admit Febs post had me totally confused..

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