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Paul

Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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EC mean looks quite solid, don't think Exeter will be making much change in their update later.

Dry and mild becoming dry and increasingly colder after mid month looks a good shout ..

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Well what can I say we have JMA strong heights around UK Scandinavia into iceland with jet stream into Africa this is exactly what we need with some real southerly tracking low heights into Europe and the Mediterranean.

Amazing to think the Scandinavian heights have been very robust.

There is a signal ATM for something wintry even if it's dry frosty cold.

But seasonal gem ECM very similar the GFS and gefs is not so keen.

Ukmo ATM is not much use unless your looking at the next few days.

Stormy tomorrow in the west and south.

 

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5 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The GFS Det might not be quite as good as yesterdays but the overnight ensembles are trending colder in the extended so for me, the signal for a colder end to the month is only strengthening. 

EAD4E1FA-EACC-4485-A03B-4D74ECFAA905.thumb.png.1ac1dabeb184c372dcfb22b132abcd0c.png

 

Indeed, and i think we ought to note the 850s will not be the be all and end all in this set up.

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1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Morning all, this chart below from ECM is the favoured development but our experts think the development of a Mid Atlantic developing trough undercut to be a little bit sharper than shown on the chart below. Possibly, what UKMO are showing out at this range with their post 144t charts.

C

ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

Really enjoying your “insider information” posts of late, so thank you! 

So if I’m reading this right, they’re expecting more of an Easterly element rather than a South/South-Easterly?

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T360 ECM clusters

3C33C0E2-DF80-4641-A8F9-92790BF65852.thumb.png.7de9a14a6e4a294dca5ab6bff81cbc06.png

That majority cluster though.. 

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GFS not a million miles away from EC @240hr could well be over playing the Atlantic like it usually does.

ECM1-240 (1).gif

gfs-0-240.png

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4 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean looks quite solid, don't think Exeter will be making much change in their update later.

Dry and mild becoming dry and increasingly colder after mid month looks a good shout ..

So while the models improve the MO have moved away from it. Disappointing update today mate

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ECM certainly caught my attention with a block that appears capable of sustaining itself at a high latitude. Some cold air would be filtering towards Europe you can imagine in the later frames.

ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

However yesterdays ECM was pretty benign as shown below (left), the GFS 6z OP (centre) and Parallel (a bit better,right) also look pretty underwhelming.

ECMOPEU12_240_1.png GFSOPEU06_240_1.png GFSPARAEU06_240_1.png

So keeping my expectations low at this point. What looks certain is that we will see a very mild first half to November in most areas and low pressure forming to the west or over Spain next week. Will this encourage northern blocking or will we just end up under mild southerlies? I'm not getting my hopes up although the ECM suggests it may yield something interesting further down the line.

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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57 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

So while the models improve the MO have moved away from it. Disappointing update today mate

Looks like they going for a slow sinking high looking at the update, which is a suprise to me too - esp after looking at those EC ens.

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3 hours ago, Daniel Smith said:

T360 ECM clusters

3C33C0E2-DF80-4641-A8F9-92790BF65852.thumb.png.7de9a14a6e4a294dca5ab6bff81cbc06.png

That majority cluster though.. 

The word "beast" comes to mind!

41% of the ensemble set - a decent figure but not something to place a bet on - yet

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Hi guys,

Just wondering if anyone has a link for those ECM clusters?  I've had a look at the Icelandic website a few times but haven't been able to track them down yet.

Edited by Gavin P

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21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks like they going for a slow sinking high looking at the update, which is a suprise to me too - esp after looking at those EC ens.

The GFS appears to agree?

h850t850eu.png

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31 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks like they going for a slow sinking high looking at the update, which is a suprise to me too - esp after looking at those EC ens.

They could well be a few days behind the curve. Funny how the models flipped to a flatter pattern for a day or two a few days ago and now we see this update. It could well be that we see the outlook revert back to what they were saying originally. I wouldn't be surprised. 

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32 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

The word "beast" comes to mind!

41% of the ensemble set - a decent figure but not something to place a bet on - yet

Really?? I think that’s a bit dramatic ..........

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17 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

They could well be a few days behind the curve. Funny how the models flipped to a flatter pattern for a day or two a few days ago and now we see this update. It could well be that we see the outlook revert back to what they were saying originally. I wouldn't be surprised. 

they don't tend to be like that any more CC. if MOGREPS changes then their forecast tends to change. this update fits with Tuesday evenings EC46 so i suspect they were waiting to see if MOGREPS headed that way before changing their output

remember, this is 16-30 day we are speaking about

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20 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Really?? I think that’s a bit dramatic ..........

Strong Scandi High potential, heights not particuarly strong over Europe ... 

OK "beast" as in a repeat of last March is a wee bit of a exaggeration ;) , but still could be cold enough for snow if this scenario were to happen in late November.

1 in 10 chance though atm I'd say

Edited by Man With Beard

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17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

they don't tend to be like that any more CC. if MOGREPS changes then their forecast tends to change. this update fits with Tuesday evenings EC46 so i suspect they were waiting to see if MOGREPS headed that way before changing their output

remember, this is 16-30 day we are speaking about

Indeed, that may well be the case. However what we're seeing from the ECM and GFS ops/ensembles atm is not supportive of that prognosis into the further outlook, YET, so I guess we wait and see. 

I recall the metoffice being led by the ec46 and MOGREPS in 2016, constantly calling for wintry weather at the back end of November and into December. Turns out the shorter range modelling trends were closer to the mark... In fact I think we all remember that wintry weather fail! 

I've just read the update. I think a bit at the end saying 'there is a smaller chance that the UK may experience a more notable spell of below average temperatures towards the end of this petrod' would have covered another base for them. 

Edited by CreweCold

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13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Indeed, that may well be the case. However what we're seeing from the ECM and GFS ops/ensembles atm is not supportive of that prognosis into the further outlook, YET, so I guess we wait and see. 

I recall the metoffice being led by the ec46 and MOGREPS in 2016, constantly calling for wintry weather at the back end of November and into December. Turns out the shorter range modelling trends were closer to the mark... In fact I think we all remember that wintry weather fail! 

not completely in agreement  - if the blocking establishes similar to the ec clusters/gefs in the 13/18 day period and then sinks away se then that would fit ok with the broad wording of the 16/30 dayer

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8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

not completely in agreement  - if the blocking establishes similar to the ec clusters/gefs in the 13/18 day period and then sinks away se then that would fit ok with the broad wording of the 16/30 dayer

As I said, guess we'll wait and see. The pattern shown in the closer time frames is conducive to cold further down the line IMO. The only way I envisage the HP slipping SE is with a coupling of strat and trop. 

Edited by CreweCold

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6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

not completely in agreement  - if the blocking establishes similar to the ec clusters/gefs in the 13/18 day period and then sinks away se then that would fit ok with the broad wording of the 16/30 dayer

Yes,clearly they expect any anticyclone to get pushed away with the jet to the north...

Not what i was hoping to see today but hey ho.

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