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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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i  know it will not happen  but this should lip the lips  of  the  coldies  

gensnh-15-1-384.png

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According to the NOAA composites - here are the PNA patterns.

Positive.

QZafaOQScE.png

 

Negative.

bAzWjoCQcf.png

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2 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The GFS 12z run looks like a bore fest although with some potentially nice crispy frosty mornings 😐

What you call a bore fest I call a great outlook, perfect autumn weather in that gfs run, I've had enough of the wet and windy weather for the time being :)

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Looking through the GEFS 12z there is some snow potential towards the end of october into early november according to the postage stamps, especially further north and on higher ground..P9 for example..yes it's deep FI but there continues to be potential for a very early taste of winter beyond the anticyclonic spell..and I am hunting for cold / snow..and Frosts of course!!❄️⛄😉

9_384_850tmp.png

9_384_2mtmpmax.png

Edited by Frosty.

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It's that time of year, when us coldies crack the crust off Autumn weather NWP and start digging... Enjoy it lads and ladies.

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@tight isobar

Here are the winter analogues that followed Octobers with a significantly positive PDO. DEC, JAN AND FEB, when the December one came out I was fearing the worse but January very decent with Feb a bit mixed and no strong signal and probably irrelavent.

bc3Q1rtQD0.png9q9JKv7EgA.pngQX8IehDL9_.png

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1 hour ago, Daniel Smith said:

i’d like to put an order in for P16

4345924D-3D57-411B-BED1-299B453512FD.thumb.jpeg.e9e57d0878ca2d86c79dbb1972efb30a.jpeg

Just don’t order P16 off from eBay - it may never arrive...

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1 hour ago, LightningLover said:

Do you have an 850Hpa chart for that?

 

That would be acceptable.☺️

 

Whoah! just noticed all the new emotes.😎❄️☃️⛄

 

gensnh-16-0-252.thumb.png.5a4b6fd62cbb6f27e982a18ee283e674.png

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I'm not sorry that that pesky OPI, with its 100 percent correlation to a mild, crappy winter, has fallen off the radar! 

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6 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

 

For me the link ( again in the round ) is more likely to be

-EPO / -PNA encouraging more atlantic / Greenland blocking 

+EPO / +PNA encouraging more scandi high pressure - 

Again all relating to the jet exit off the states- The first being more NNE then second being more East then being forced to recurve....

Yep - don't disagree with these options. I've just been musing elsewhere about what causes core features to embed over a season or part season...and my initial thoughts are more around the -EPO and NNE jet at least for the next few weeks. With Nino gradually increasing in strength and appearing to harness a high GWO orbit plus low solar/sluggish? vortex start, I wonder what our chances are of seeing sufficient amplification later on for a scandy high to enter the frame with a fairly constant retrograde signal? I'm hoping for the holy grail there (might even see a Murr sausage appear...) but we have to acknowledge that low solar, weak Nino and inconclusive QBO (would be great if the eQBO could hang a bit in the mid strat) gives us a very positive background signal. We certainly aren't looking at a raging Nina alongside a major wQBO and lots of solar forcing!

All good. Glad to have seen the back of summer - didn't like it at all. Fingers crossed for white gold soon, even if it is bound to be the northern brigade that see it first  |-[ Any cold initially from the north to start with, and later into January more from NE and E. That's my current call. 

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2 hours ago, tinybill said:

i  know it will not happen  but this should lip the lips  of  the  coldies  

gensnh-15-1-384.png

I don't think we will be as amplified as this quite so early - but I think this kind of chart has a decent chance of featuring this winter season, given the combination of background drivers in place. For early November I think the high a bit flatter with the jet curving over the top - but a month later? Not impossible.

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7 hours ago, Catacol said:

I don't think we will be as amplified as this quite so early - but I think this kind of chart has a decent chance of featuring this winter season, given the combination of background drivers in place. For early November I think the high a bit flatter with the jet curving over the top - but a month later? Not impossible.

Well both gfs and 18z gfsp take that n Pacific typhoon far enough north to create a fair amount of early season havoc in the trop polar field courtesy of some ex tropical WAA .......  these interruptions to the developing vortex are not likely to be relevant to an early nov wintry blast for here but they could be of great value re developments later in nov and through December ......

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EC much more amplified (hmmm, seen that before a few times)than GFS at168 onwards, snow for the scottish highlands at 216?

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Some very warm air being pumped north into Greenland by the end of the ECM, and some really cold air sitting across Southern France, from 240 onwards one could forsee some kind of build of heights over Scandy and in theory cold arctic air flooding down the eastern flank of the Scandy high.

I know its very very very early to be looking for snow, but the signal for some kind of high lat build of pressure now looks decent for late October, I'm also beginning to get interested on what the potential ramifications of that huge SSW are? Is it possible we may see an increase in the scandy high this winter perhaps?

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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Some very warm air being pumped north into Greenland by the end of the ECM, and some really cold air sitting across Southern France, from 240 onwards one could forsee some kind of build of heights over Scandy and in theory cold arctic air flooding down the eastern flank of the Scandy high.

I know its very very very early to be looking for snow, but the signal for some kind of high lat build of pressure now looks decent for late October, I'm also beginning to get interested on what the potential ramifications of that huge SSW are? Is it possible we may see an increase in the scandy high this winter perhaps?

Right you are. 

Certainly a good thing, that models are signalling some cold air being ejected southwards. Even if it misses us, it’s not a bad thing in getting the continent cooled down quickly. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91

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After having a look and the recent charts there's a Arctic outbreak on the ECM.Few days ago JMA was showing similar. 

GFS has to shown this is a possibility.

but GFS has now pushed this further east into Europe. But something truely wintry already in europe.

I seriously believe this year will be dominated by neg nao and neg AO.

All the time we have a displacement of the Azores heights then chances of a high mid latitude block is evident.

Also the east to west movement of high pressure cells moving west towards Scandinavian area.

Alot are thinking Scandinavian block.

I'm thinking Greenland block with dominant polar vortex on the Scandinavian side.

Most interesting thing to watch for is split or southerly tracking jet stream.

Interesting runs for the last five days or so.

And please not the opi talk really don't believe it's a great tool to be looking at for wintery weather.

But 50/50 between models to whether heights pull west,

and could be shunted further west by deep depression rolling down the North sea opening the door to the Arctic,Perhaps building to northeasterly in time.

Of course I could be wrong but after watching the charts progress I still think it's 50/50.

But interesting all year fingers crossed.

Anyway in the mean time frost fog fresh clean air sunshine beautiful.

Bernard Mathews.

Edited by MR EXTREMES

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Retrogression signal still in place, ecm a nice run.  Come end of Oct the change arrives and will gather apace as we head deeper into Nov.... 

ECM 240 will be pretty chilly for sure and could be colder than many think.  Anyway I’m happy the signal remains 

BFTP

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A fantastic thread for 2018 - 2019

Heres the latest FI

00z 30% chance of Pennine sleet at T+360

uksnowrisk.thumb.png.162552b6c63f66ee91bfa5e8cffe858d.png

Happy lampost watching.

Iain

 

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and looking at gefs pulls the heights further west allowing lows to move nw southeast dragging down colder air.

gens-0-1-180.thumb.png.30a1027fcf2ee5734940575a555f0cd3.png

remember the jma and ecm earlier.

1232393055_bonusoctoberchart2018.thumb.gif.1b07f1537df613e9f8942a5f9dc721a9.gif

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16 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

and looking at gefs pulls the heights further west allowing lows to move nw southeast dragging down colder air.

gens-0-1-180.thumb.png.30a1027fcf2ee5734940575a555f0cd3.png

remember the jma and ecm earlier.

1232393055_bonusoctoberchart2018.thumb.gif.1b07f1537df613e9f8942a5f9dc721a9.gif

The jma from last night and sticking to it guns,no pv over N America/Greenland on that chart,this would be truly remarkable if it comes off:)

JN264-21.thumb.GIF.e4c72940cca341da17ca1088d93cecef.GIFJN264-7.thumb.GIF.7bb1a7d5093900f6cc2b910e7baadeda.GIF

 

 

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16 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The jma from last night and sticking to it guns,no pv over N America/Greenland on that chart,this would be truly remarkable if it comes off:)

JN264-21.thumb.GIF.e4c72940cca341da17ca1088d93cecef.GIFJN264-7.thumb.GIF.7bb1a7d5093900f6cc2b910e7baadeda.GIF

 

indeed very exciting.

like steve murr explained the vortex on the ropes weakened and could be dealt a blow this winter.

09/10 winter perhaps.

but certainly an early chance of something colder at least.

how cold is open to debate.

but -4c upper air temps just for starters would do nicely.

get them heights out west,

then slow decline to colder and colder air.

with cold air already in place over scandinavia and to our east will certainly help alot.

Edited by MR EXTREMES

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Looking at the Ecm 00z ensemble mean at days 9 & 10 we have a scandi trough and we also have high pressure out in the atlantic with a colder NW'ly airflow covering most of the uk so I think it would be cold enough for showers to contain wintry ppn on northern hills / mountains and night frosts where skies clear.

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

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@Catacol @Snowy Hibbo

Just to wrap a few more bits up-

Exert from twitter today showing the huge. - EPO ridge in September & how its POOR for cold / troughing on the east coast- its almost as of if they wrote exactly the same as me

WXRISK is Dave Tolleris - Professional Met.

EBCD0D9A-EA62-4E5B-8518-0BAB4ABDE76C.thumb.png.4acec42a26bdbe7e8894c8b3c06e46ce.pngF8C08B31-9DA5-4697-BD37-18EFBD386949.thumb.png.2d80f626c35301e181c970054951956e.png

Ridge on the east coast....

Just to close this down- 

A shallow ridge in the EPO position with a weak dip in the jet will bring cold to central & Eastern Canada- & of course possible parts of the NE-

However as you increase the intensity of the high - so you modify the depth of the trough in terms of how far it digs south-

The more negative it gets the further west & south the cold moves, & in proportion the warmer air moves further North & east along the eat coast-

When we are talking about record breaking intensity the trough will be digging down towards Texas ( hence the mention of texas snow over that period ) 

The fallout being that the NE part of the US will be warm all the way up to even quebec & it supports a ridge along the coast - hence the enhanced -PNA...

 

 

Edited by Steve Murr

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High pressure dominated GFS 6z until towards the end so early indications for half term show it being very settled during the first half of the week with the high slap bang over the UK & Ireland but potentially becoming unsettled during the second half with a risk of gales developing as Atlantic lows push in, but of course its very early days yet. In the more reliable timeframe it's mostly settled with variable cloud and sunny spells, pleasant days but chilly nights, typical Autumn weather

image.png

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