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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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1 minute ago, Nick123 said:

Personally I think these are the building blocks slowly coming into place, for the ultimate UK freeze we want the 'perfect synoptics late dec/jan ideally. The fact that they're showing now can only be encouraging 

I would say a bit later, when Europe fully cooled down, Feb/Mar

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Just now, Nick123 said:

Personally I think these are the building blocks slowly coming into place, for the ultimate UK freeze we want the 'perfect synoptics late dec/jan ideally. The fact that they're showing now can only be encouraging 

I understand your POV Nick, my main worry though is that there is no guarantee that these building blocks will stay in place throughout the Winter.

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2 minutes ago, Nick123 said:

Personally I think these are the building blocks slowly coming into place, for the ultimate UK freeze we want the 'perfect synoptics late dec/jan ideally. The fact that they're showing now can only be encouraging 

We would normally have given our right foot for such synoptics so early on. People always getting hung up on run to run. 

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Just now, AppleUK 123 said:

I understand your POV Nick, my main worry though is that there is no guarantee that these building blocks will stay in place throughout the Winter.

You'll never get that guarantee though, so no point worrying about it. Especially in November!

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2 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

I understand your POV Nick, my main worry though is that there is no guarantee that these building blocks will stay in place throughout the Winter.

Keep the faith man, something is afoot this year

 

 

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2 minutes ago, CanadaAl said:

We would normally have given our right foot for such synoptics so early on. People always getting hung up on run to run. 

Yes we could have a raging Atlantic with no end in sight, then I’d be more concerned. 🤢 

Edited by matt111

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Just now, Johnp said:

You'll never get that guarantee though, so no point worrying about it. Especially in November!

A valid point John P, would be a monumental shame if the current synoptic setup does not deliver any cold or snow to Britannia.

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If i'm correct doesn't the ICON starting running at 9pm then 18z (GFS,ECM) 9.30PM?

Hopefully something better for the pubs

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UKMO extended looks to be a bit more se'ly with an area of low pressure to the south-west 

ukm2.2018112312_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.3fac4603e91f036a8636ea6df9cad91c.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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Just now, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended looks to be a bi more se'ly with an area of low pressure to the south-west 

ukm2.2018112312_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.3fac4603e91f036a8636ea6df9cad91c.png

like EC SS? good news hopefully, less convection off the north sea? meaning drier

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Wow 153 people reading this thread. Its winter alright 

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Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

like EC SS? good news hopefully, less convection off the north sea? meaning drier

ECM at D7

 

ecm2.2018112312.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

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2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

If i'm correct doesn't the ICON starting running at 9pm then 18z (GFS,ECM) 9.30PM?

Hopefully something better for the pubs

Correct apart from the ECM. That model runs every 12 hours.

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2 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

@AppleUK 123 another piece of advice from someone who has been on NW since 2009. If you are getting hung up on the weather take a break as a lot od our seasoned posters do. This is one od the best openings to a potential winter period that I can remember and it's still autumn. Try not to get hung up on each run. Otherwise you will have a horrendous winter. Learn from the few on here on this great thread and take time.

Thank you for taking the time and effort to share that advice JimmyH. I just can't help myself when looking at these models.

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3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Correct apart from the ECM. That model runs every 12 hours.

ECM now has runs every 6 hours too (started a couple of months ago), but they aren’t freely available to the general public.

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1 hour ago, Skullzrulerz said:

 if something won't verify in 5 days what's their to 10 ?

 

Well... it's not that it won't verify in 5 days - all of the runs COULD happen. It's just that some are more probable and others are less probable. Some 5-day runs are less probably than some 10-day runs. That's where I rely on the people in here who can comprehend the patterns and give an indication of which ones are more or less probable.

Something forecast at Day 10 can perfectly possibly happen exactly as forecast. It would be unusual (!) but it's perfectly possible. 

Meanwhile, I really enjoy there being the possibility! I enjoy the excitement with or without snow and cold as a result... 

...and after last winter, starting with the first week of December giving us 10 inches of snow in one Friday from that amazing Cheshire Gap NWerly streamer followed two days later by a totally unrelated 6 inches of SWerly snow on the Sunday...!!! We got snow from the Beasterlies too, and even from the bits that technically only affected the East coast, as it turns out the Humber streamers can, if strong enough and heavy enough precip, reach us, bypassing most of the Midlands en route!

So far as I'm concerned, ANYTHING is possible for Telford in winter, and I enjoy the excitement of trying to learn more (thankyou everyone who explains what to look at in the piccies you post...)

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Been observing mostly since the 'hunt' began this year, great reading and model viewing lately. But please don't bite the hook of a couple of posters, especially the passive aggressive nonsense.

Plenty of interest going forwards...

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Hi good peeps 😊

I don't normally post on here but on this occasion I will. Some of you may not like what I write but I want to be to the point and look at reality. 

For those hoping for a 2010 repeat, at the meeting moment with the current output I cannot see any brutal cold coming here so soon. Having said that yes it is going to get colder next week and it will be something we have not been used to for a while. Unfortunately in reality this is not going to be a freeze up situation (this is what our hearts are dying to see).

the continent has not gone cold enough yet and the North Sea temperatures are still fairly mild. So the easterlies will not be as cold as we hope. 

So to be realistic yes it will get colder but there will be very little snow if any. We will have night frosts though at times. 

Sorry if this post sounds disheartening but that's what is currently on the cards. 

Who knows December may change all this let's wait and see. 

Kind regards

😊😊😊😊

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1 minute ago, BleakMidwinter said:

Well... it's not that it won't verify in 5 days - all of the runs COULD happen. It's just that some are more probable and others are less probable. Some 5-day runs are less probably than some 10-day runs. That's where I rely on the people in here who can comprehend the patterns and give an indication of which ones are more or less probable.

Something forecast at Day 10 can perfectly possibly happen exactly as forecast. It would be unusual (!) but it's perfectly possible. 

Meanwhile, I really enjoy there being the possibility! I enjoy the excitement with or without snow and cold as a result... 

...and after last winter, starting with the first week of December giving us 10 inches of snow in one Friday from that amazing Cheshire Gap NWerly streamer followed two days later by a totally unrelated 6 inches of SWerly snow on the Sunday...!!! We got snow from the Beasterlies too, and even from the bits that technically only affected the East coast, as it turns out the Humber streamers can, if strong enough and heavy enough precip, reach us, bypassing most of the Midlands en route!

So far as I'm concerned, ANYTHING is possible for Telford in winter, and I enjoy the excitement of trying to learn more (thankyou everyone who explains what to look at in the piccies you post...)

Agree, just hope it's not a Dec 8th 2017

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Not the best of trends from extended eps as the mean lifts the -nao to become a bit west based and lift the Atlantic upper trough extension across the uk, sw/ne

expect the clusters to reveal that Atlantic 50% set to be maintained and potentially increased  - anyway, despite a transient mean upper ridge headed across day 11 a Euro high doesn’t become established but Mediterranean high anomalys do 

no doubt that today has seen any likelihood of a notable wintry spell with snowfall before month end recede ...........however, we know that days like today occur and the weekend could see the pendulum swing back again ....what follows the holding pattern days 7/8 remains unclear but by sunday the murk should have cleared 

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5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Another piece of advice, Apple: try not to drink too much while perusing models (I think Jordan's okay with it, but she's the exception!) as it can lead to all kinds of 'deeply philosophical' and entertaining word-salads...I know! Hic!:drunk-emoji:

Of course Ed, I have no problem with that, as I rarely drink...

Edited by AppleUK 123
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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not the best of trends from extended eps as the mean lifts the -nao to become a bit west based and lift the Atlantic upper trough extension across the uk, sw/ne

expect the clusters to reveal that Atlantic 50% set to be maintained and potentially increased  - anyway, despite a transient mean upper ridge headed across day 11 a Euro high doesn’t become established but Mediterranean high anomalys do 

no doubt that today has seen any likelihood of a notable wintry spell with snowfall before month end recede ...........however, we know that days like today occur and the weekend could see the pendulum swing back again ....what follows the holding pattern days 7/8 remains unclear but by sunday the murk should have cleared 

I think the murk is already beginning to clear judging by the ext debilt ens

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37 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

 take most of the 'expert' predictions of cold, snow and blizzards (at anything past, say, Day 10) with a huge pile of salt? 

But... but... won't the salt then melt all the snow and ice...? 😮 

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