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Paul

Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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ECM and GFS just don't want to back down it seems. Still no agreement. 

ECM1-120.GIF?16-12

gfs-0-120.png

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Fantastic 00z GFS, perfect from start to finish!

ECM still a bit dodgy with a sceuro high rather than the ridge making it up to Greenland, the chaos continues!

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F483A8BF-1896-4D3C-9EFB-D89C778449B2.thumb.png.930565307be28dd0bd9c2fddf89fdfa7.png

ECM 168 Really frustrating that saggy part of the high to the South East.

Edited by Spah1

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OK so no GFS outcome on EC but it looks cold and dry generally with a SE flow into the UK next weekend.

Not really what Sarah Lucas was forecasting last night- (yes i saw it too)..

Essentially by day and esp the night temps would be dropping like a stone, think late Nov,short days etc..

I'm happy with it, but i'm aware this is complicated and changes could yet happen..

Edited by northwestsnow

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ECM once again finds the way to put the high in the most inconvenient position possible, haha.

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

OK so no GFS outcome on EC but it looks cold and dry generally with a SE flow into the UK next weekend.

Not really what Sarah Lucas was forecasting last night- (yes i saw it too)..

I did think it was made with a bit too much certainty but if ecm is right about the brief southerly flow then she could end up looking less stupid than the daily express (not difficult)

actually, that ec op does seem some actual snow mid week as the initial cold pool gets colder and is better aligned ........ still too many variables to make a call - currently the gfs trend is to sink the surface high a little too much compared to yesterday but it’s small trends and nothing worth over analysing 

note the new gefs at T180 and tell me the ec op isn’t worth keeping at the forefront of your mind - it hasn’t got this right - none of them have but the way it’s currently dealing with the set up post the initial cold pool arriving is becoming the gefs mean ........

as others have said, given the warm autumn, we are early on this pattern to bring deep winter cold surface conditions initially but really not too far away and seeing as winter hasn’t even started yet, maybe just enjoy the ride ??

incidentally, further analysis on the ec46 reveals that the following themes

week 2/3: Atlantic tries to push in from sw against block to ne 

week 3/4: weak signals all around but Atlantic low to our wsw - well to our ssw I should add 

week 4/5: sceuro high drifts wsw 

week 5/6: broad scandi / n Atlantic low establishes as ridge retrogresses further 

week 6/7: weak signal for mid Atlantic ridge

should be noted that at no point in the period do uk surface temps go above average ( apart from the n Scotland coast late on)

the signals don’t look very strong beyond week 3 so clusters could be significantly different 

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^^

Thanks Blue, the winds from the east looks nailed on, i'm sure some the of the guys in the SE corner (esp with some altitude) will be wondering if we can squeeze a dusting next week- 850s of -7 on EC ... not sure on dp'S though?

Thereafter is entropy, to coin the phrase.

Personally i'm not expecting a GFS 00z scenario , my hope is the block , despite apparently sinking back longer term, can do enough to deflect the Atlantic to our South.

edit i think the far SE corner scrapes a 850 of -8 through wednesday..

Edited by northwestsnow

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So the GFS is a dream run and the ECM a bit meh. Scrap what I said a moment ago edited out now 

Edited by Decemberof2010

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Well apart from the ecm which is really startin to Tut me off the rest of the 00z runs are great!!ecm is brilliant up to 144.hours!still dont think its right after that!!could get some snow from that easterly aswell!!is it me or does that flow of the continent seem to be forecasted to be colder after each day lol!

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1 minute ago, Decemberof2010 said:

So the GFS is a dream run and the ECM a bit meh. Theres an upgrade on the overnight MO forecast for days 6-15. Lowland snow possible north and east!

Ay, deepest FI though, cold from 28th, hope for a repeat of ya username

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4 hours ago, stevofunnelcl said:

i saw the video forecast on Met Office website, he was downplaying next week as well.. certainly getting colder, but he said 'if you're looking for snow, you're out of luck.. it'll be rain showers'

obvious that, next week looking pants, always has done, it's week after I'm interested in, GFS showing legendary charts last few runs

gfs-0-336.png

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2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

obvious that, next week looking pants, always has done, it's week after I'm interested in, GFS showing legendary charts last few runs

gfs-0-336.png

It would be fair to say this week is pants - next week looks more seasonal, which to me is a welcome change from this mild dross.

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Much derided EC snow depth charts do show a dusting across parts of the country next week -

OK OK i know some dislike them and i'm sure with good reason, but with dps hovering around zero and 850s around -7/-8 in the SE corner i reckon some maybe more elevated spots might see a dusting..

 

 

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33 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Ay, deepest FI though, cold from 28th, hope for a repeat of ya username

Yes that would be perfect. Let’s hope so

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Extended eps reveal a likely wider ranging  set of clusters later 

the ec mean looks good but the spreads reveal the varying options (which the icelandic clusters would reveal later in any case) 

@carinthian ‘s update is encouraging 

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Slight exaggeration to say the U.K. will ‘grind to a halt’ . Most central areas stay dry on the latest Gfs. Below is the total snow cover by the end. Still great to see this early in the season ! 

 

 

56329C63-FE38-40A1-A814-DE422D8B1D62.png

Edited by Tim Bland

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15 hours ago, bluearmy said:

A sceuro high is an upper ridge that sits over Scandinavia, ridging down into Europe to its south ...... it doesn’t usually bring upper cold to the uk as the mean flow is se or south 

 

Thanks.

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16 minutes ago, tinybill said:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=2

people whant snow their plenty coming our way after 312  hr    if its right  the uk will come  to a  halt

gfs-2-324.png

gfs-2-336.png

gfs-2-348.png

gfs-2-360.png

gfs-2-372.png

gfs-2-384.png

If the models are showing snow for central S England within t96 and the Met Office have amber warnings, then I will take interest. ❄️❄️❄️❄️

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Very good gfs this morning cold nextweek frosty weather with brisk easterly in south not cold yet for low level snow yet but later on in run door opens up to the freezer winter is coming.

E2977E87-8BBF-4C71-8C31-783BE7F14E74.png

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These charts from 1st December 2010 preceded some of the most memorable winter weather seen in December in recent years:

image.thumb.png.70843f036c248f40d37e93d6a45548dd.png   image.thumb.png.5ef04a77a85644442dc4d565bbb50395.png

We all know what followed in 2010.  So when I saw these charts from the GFS showing a possible evolution for 01/12/2018 I couldn't help making comparisons.....

image.thumb.png.1c4390102a6a46625fd0d44af58c2dfd.png    image.thumb.png.fcb21478f0f7079918c42fadee16b545.png

i would say they hold at least as much potential, if not even more, for a cold and wintry December this year.  Very exciting prospects indeed!  Now all we need is for these conditions to verify..... What are the chances, eh?

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