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Paul

Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Just seem the EC46 and it's not all that bad really! - The signal is fairly strong for a blocked and potentially cold pattern out to around day 21, thereafter the signal of course weakens and becomes dilated, though quite a strong signal for low pressure to the North of the UK days 32-39, though being a month away I'm not overly worried about that just yet!

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JMA out to T264, and this is one hell of a Greenland block, surely the evidence is beginning to stack up in support of a major UK winter event, not 100% certain, I'm at about 85% now....JMA charts:

image.thumb.jpg.836248f3dee88932f5f75a68c0dae8ef.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.f6529db11da95c99b8e725073e83a3de.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole

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11 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Finally 😂

D8A84C9D-873B-47B9-A567-A702159FBF0A.png

BEB99989-942D-4AFD-8290-CED333B46576.png

think The Rock summed up the waiting for the cold air arriving in the UK on that run nicely :oldlaugh: also nice to see the north sea snow machine firing up later in the run gfs-2-324.png?18 think there will be some great looking charts in the 18z GEFS again too.

 

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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That’s week 5 ...... it’s a model not bloody fortune teller ! 

Calm down dear. It's only the weather! Week 5 as in next week's weather. Sorry but I would have expected it to have latched on to the massive scandi high anomaly more than what it did. It just didn't - plain and simple. 

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8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That’s week 5 ...... it’s a model not bloody fortune teller ! 

PMSL that made me spit my coffee out Blue!!!

Great 18z BTW...

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Just now, Daniel Smith said:

Just seem the EC46 and it's not all that bad really! - The signal is fairly strong for a blocked and potentially cold pattern out to around day 21, thereafter the signal of course weakens and becomes dilated, though quite a strong signal for low pressure to the North of the UK days 32-39, though being a month away I'm not overly worried about that just yet!

As mentioned I like the run up to christmas to be cold and snowy (period from about 14th), alas not had one of those run ins since 2010. So I would be annoyed if we did see it all collapse in a months time - I'd take some short term pain for long term gain so to speak, don't want to have it too early.

Alas strong signals still that the start of December will see a blocked theme and quite probably lots of hard frost and possible fog, with potential for snowy NE blast as well.

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Just been through a few of the GEFS so cant be definitive but it looks like a rip-roaring suite to me, the -10c line will be breached a few times i would think.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just been through a few of the GEFS so cant be definitive but it looks like a rip-roaring suite to me, the -10c line will be breached a few times i would think.

Some real crackers in there 👍

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30 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I agree.  GFS 18z at T348:

image.thumb.jpg.b85d454b365179fa36a01e4c20c0d488.jpg

Vortex marmalised and shoved in the direction of Europe and Asia, but we're it not for that weird period you mention, I was expecting it to be cleaved in half north/south.  Still great guns for UK cold, let's see what the FV3 brings... 

Yes the 18z is waaaaaayyyyyyyyy better then the 12z and leaves Europe very frigid. The period in the middle is a bit weird as mentioned, I'd expect the Greenland high to be stuck there for longer under such a setup.

Anyway swingometer update for the 18z...

image.thumb.png.ed42dda1a86f637bb2ebae13532ec6bd.png

I think they are an upgrade as a few in the rather cold category have some deeper cold not too far away to the NE (these are for November 25th). Whether it makes it to the UK.... well time will tell but a lot of runs have cold air packing into Europe at least.

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just been through a few of the GEFS so cant be definitive but it looks like a rip-roaring suite to me, the -10c line will be breached a few times i would think.

GFS parallel looks pretty good as well out to T186 with the disturbance coming into Scandi apparent again.

GFSPARAEU18_186_2.png

Maybe the ECM is having a wobble, would be good to see it come into line tomorrow. 

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Diagramme GEFS

-10c indeed breached.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Diagramme GEFS

-10c indeed breached.

Ens begining to look very- late feb/march 2018 esq...

(In compare)

@belly floping

MT8_London_ens.png

Edited by tight isobar

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Literally shudder to think what the FV3 charts will show in a few minutes, here at T234:

image.thumb.jpg.129e07873b6a6ca5788dbb0bc6ad0be3.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.a88022d826943cbd9503b70605f3ea32.jpg

Actually very quickly answered, T276:

image.thumb.jpg.9fe6b68daa12694607e4d80e6d7f495f.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.b635b79f2f2fdf272ff22037c1ac2e57.jpg

i guess the common theme of these runs is that vortex gets sliced not always in the same place, but with the result that it ends on the Eurasia side.  Bring it on!

Edited by Mike Poole

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Diagramme GEFS

-10c indeed breached.

So is the +10c so its anyones guess at that range. As always in these setup's I'm looking no further than 120hr and don't get sucked into these wild swings 6+ days out this pattern throws up.

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Literally shudder to think what the FV3 charts will show in a few minutes, here at T234:

image.thumb.jpg.129e07873b6a6ca5788dbb0bc6ad0be3.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.a88022d826943cbd9503b70605f3ea32.jpg

Butter in a frying pan 2.0..

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GFSPARAEU18_252_2.png

GFS parallel pretty similar to the OP and manages to dump a lobe of the polar vortex over Eastern Europe for good measure....

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10 minutes ago, danthetan said:

So is the +10c so its anyones guess at that range. As always in these setup's I'm looking no further than 120hr and don't get sucked into these wild swings 6+ days out this pattern throws up.

If you dont bother with the medium  + long range, this might be a better thread for you then, if there's no point in looking further than 120.

 

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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Not bad anomalies for the first day of Winter.👍

gensnh-21-5-384.thumb.png.051c3466fdaf2c689a0a38e060351b7a.png

 

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Para-also flags that azores nose ridge.

A big game player imo...going forwards.

gfs-0-276.png

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Finally!!  This is what I've been expecting all evening, first with the GFS run, didn't happen, but as for now, FV3 at T348:

image.thumb.jpg.b6a0866a7bf8ee968a9b0f0ca0afcc60.jpg

For now, let's watch these epic runs gradually increase in frequency until we tick down to T0.

Edited by Mike Poole

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Diagramme GEFS

-10c indeed breached.

pretty much identical for here too graphe3_1000___-3.16202_56.10878_.thumb.gif.b2efb22d3b76edff7683b298426c2256.gif  👍 lets hope the ↘️ trend continues

GEFS looking great (pretty much all are blocked these were some of the better ones for UK snow / cold)

gens-18-2-276.thumb.png.0a20a05b1e78004c9974bf86f6a4bf29.pnggens-18-0-348.thumb.png.13d27ceaf250b575836a84515bd9d520.pnggens-9-1-240.thumb.png.d2c662a02734ccf28763c0df4edd3fee.pnggens-7-1-240.thumb.png.1f7200024a423e412b16cd1f94ee2659.pnggens-4-0-324.thumb.png.7b18250681fcf6add6ced7812ba13ecb.pngtempresult_zdv6.thumb.gif.924a9d8bfaf2ffd8cd0bf153f35ae829.giftempresult_vbm2.thumb.gif.1af13ef58d408c28aabab36db5f7ecfd.gif

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