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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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I'm not going to quote Tamara's post as I'll  probably stretch the page, but a superb post full of fantastic insight as ever. Moreover, an objective and factual perspective

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A short term improvement on GFS 12z. Stronger heights over Greenland thanks to a stronger low in the Atlantic. I'll ask mr blobby whether that is ultimately good or bad news #notaclue

Edited by ITSY

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GFS making a bee line for Greenland as early as 132, certainly an improvement upon the 06z!

B7D883FE-E89B-4200-BD5C-FFF5CDC91410.thumb.png.3a0cc58d70afbd066e25fe3898d2cc3e.png

Is the retrogression signal making a comeback?

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1 hour ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Hi Steve

Apologies but where is this NH Thread????

 

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Day 6 UKMO looks wintry for the SE.

UW144-21.thumb.GIF.1b3b90ab811ece63fd4416bf72e16d8d.GIF

 

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24 minutes ago, weatherguy said:

GFS Archive Image

The classic period of March-April 2013?

Surface ridge - looking for cut off upper high 

gem and ukmo are uogrades 

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A much better UKMO run this afternoon

 

+144 below:

 

F9A6A20B-4501-46C9-A5C8-B6799E0BE196.thumb.gif.c84f39639c1ce3e71732e32d77e3446b.gif

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Surprised by the lack of comments on the UKMO12Z run, probs the best UKMO run of the season in my eyes, has the initial cold pool from the East much closer and as some members alluded too earlier this afternoon, its a slightly stronger cold pool also. Variation will of course occur but don't rule out the cold pool making more of an impact on the UK than we might think. The form horse is still for the majority to affect Europe but one to keep an eye on.

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Fantastic upgrade on the ukmo 12z and a cold easterly aswell at 144 hours!!gfs may well have been on point here!!good start so far!

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Cut off high seems to be likely the way forward after the initial retrogression attempt

222081131_CUtoff.thumb.png.821ea38bfbf79c11fce5589f75a80785.png

It wouldn't take much tweaking to tap into the growing cold pool across.. well, the entirety of Europe 

COLD.thumb.png.30279a057b2789c2eedb63d8916ba98a.png

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9 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Day 6 UKMO looks wintry for the SE.

UW144-21.thumb.GIF.1b3b90ab811ece63fd4416bf72e16d8d.GIF

 

More likely to be cold rain at the moment?

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That UKMO is the best chart since erm , yesterday’s gfs 12z run 😂. No being serious that is good news having UKMO on board at T144 . 

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Quite a turnaround from the UKMO which this morning had no jet cut back sw and sent any cold pool se.

It just shows how difficult these set ups are for the models . You can also see the GFS is struggling between runs now theres a more expansive cold pool over Europe on this run .

Overall though lots of interest for coldies .

 

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO 850's 12z

UW144-7.thumb.gif.1a7a1bdfc745c9eda1b28a60949e335c.gif

Compared to the 00z...

197586344_UW144-7(1).thumb.gif.c2bd62e6aa7820df3c0e0163a92fc650.gif

A massive difference there, all models seem to be going with the retrogression idea next week.

Whether the high anchors to Greenland is another matter entirely but if the 12z is anything to go by we will be looking to tap into the cold to our east instead of north....

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2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Can we take a moment to appreciate this chart

SPLIT444.thumb.png.667f4e8d7cc7258a2bf7f4d589bfc2ec.png

The high is cutting through the Vortex like cutter, true Arctic air flooding into Europe, the Atlantic is deader than the dodo and the high is basically just a limpet, refusing to move from it's position.

Really is a dream chart on a synotopic pov and its good too see the UKMO is now hinting at the retrogression idea also and we are edging more and more through the medium term so the idea of it happening is starting to increase. Of course the details as a result is always going to vary and the models will no doubt struggle on this hence you can't rule out the initial cold pool hitting the UK like the ECM this morning has shown and this afternoon's UKMO run. 

Edited by Geordiesnow

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Gfs op finds another variation for the 12z in low res - amazing it even finds a Scandi shortwave in low res ! 

Edited by bluearmy

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I know this is too far out to be taken at all seriously but that's a lovely trigger shortwave dropping perfectly through Scandi with heights building North-East behind it to aim the cold directly towards us..

TRIGGER.thumb.png.23d838ed7d619bbca6766853352d5f8d.png

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Gfs op finds another variation for the 12z in low res - amazing it finds a Scandi shortwave in low res ! 

Its only out to 222 isnt it?  useful shortwave track anyway.

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6 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning all. Just had a chat with a duty forecaster from our service team. Their model differs in the orientation of the high compared to latest UKMO run. At 120t has the high centre over Scandinavia that allows more of a backing of the flow(ENE) At 144t the surface high cell moves between Scandinavia and Iceland . A easterly component to the flow shows signs of becoming a bit more dominant into the British Isles. Longer term ridging into the Arctic still been shown that may allow a more fluid meridional set up. The outer perimeter snow model they use does show some snow( convective type) in parts of Britain (period 144-240 ) NE England favoured at 200m but could lower later in the period.  They do not dismiss the UKMO model out to 144t as they have to much respect for this but is well out of sink this morning with its own model.  Again, they express the surprise shown by ECM at its speed of the Westward Propagating trough being shown. What their own model indicates is a rather gradual change to cold but with an increased easterly element to the UK weather that's likely to becoming more dominant /prolonged.

C

Re above post: Quite a change from this mornings UKMO run. Latest run now shows cold air advection and a correction of the high cell orientation with a fairly potent Easterly setting in across the British Isles.

UW144-6.gif

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