Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[SMU]

Record break +VE height anomaly developing here for November - How many 588DAM highs do you see over the North sea this time of year-

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Record break +VE height anomaly developing here for November - How many 588DAM highs do you see over the North sea this time of year-

A real corker of a run setting up once again! Slowly edging ever closer to the more reliable frames too. 

[Mike Poole]

GFS 18z at T 192, wow! 

Fascinating watching this!

[shaky]

9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Record break +VE height anomaly developing here for November - How many 588DAM highs do you see over the North sea this time of year-

That is what you call a SCANDI HIGH!!amazing blocking showing up for the time of year!!expect more changes on the 00zs!!more towards a colder outcome than currently shown i assume!!

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 18z at T 192, wow! 

Fascinating watching this!

Ànd also look at that cold pool coming in behind the back into central europe!!would not be surprised if its even further west tomorrow and further north!!

[SMU]

These are the exact conditions that bring Deep snow to the hills of Italy ( deep >1M )

[Allseasons-Si]

evening all

here is the latest from cpc and if this is right the block will win out the Atlantic and looks a dead cert,shift that

now we have the block as a dead cert the NAO/AO showing signs of weakening and trending into negative

now what i do like is the progresion of the wind direction over the last few days and this evening most if not all are in the same ball park(third image)

now if you get blocking north of the BI it is classed as northern blocking,here is the height anomoly's from both the ecm and gfs 12z at 240 and would promote retrogression of the hp cell west,the gefs ens gif shows this although slightly muted as it goes on of which it will do out to that range,but one thing that stands out on that gif is that the pv is transferred from N canada to N Scandi/NW Russia poised for dropping a trough down from the north/northeast.

 

[January Snowstorm]

Exciting times for coldies!!

You can't help but wonder will things continue to upgrade now that the charts have picked up the strong signal for a Scandinavian high

Edited November 11, 2018 by January Snowstorm
word

[bluearmy]

Eps Clusters picking up on the gefs being supported ......... 

[ICE COLD]

And here we are at T252 . Are we going to Greenland with the high ? 

[Wilxy]

Wow! Atlantic westerly's going on holiday! That is not normal for the mid to end of November! 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Eps Clusters picking up on the gefs being supported ......... 

That! is! stonking! news

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

And here we are at T252 . Are we going to Greenland with the high ? 

I think we might be, GFS T300:

[ICE COLD]

Up she goes

[sorepaw1]

Fantastic set of charts T+192 hrs onwards. 

I'm going to stick my neck on the line and say some eastern counties could see heavy slow moving snow showers.

Freezing fog will be most dominant. 

It's been a long time since I've seen a November easterly. 

And difficult for me to pick over the bones regarding snow or fog for the East. 

With a +10.oC north sea temp and a cold 1048mb  high. Mixed together throws some spice into a professional forecast.

I'm not a professional by any means but

I'm just a 35 year winter weather observer 

[Allseasons-Si]

Destination Greenland

[Rayth]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Destination Greenland

Destination splitting the flow 

[CheesepuffScott]

Up up and away at T312

[JeffC]

55 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed. For the next two weeks, temps could be up-and-down like Jordan's knickers!

Wrong model!! Not convinced she wears undies!

[Met4Cast]

Well well well..

After what feels like weeks of myself and a few others on here banging on about blocking for the end of the month and how we were expecting models to start showing it, it's really starting to happen now.

Fantastic consistency and a growing trend within the EPS/GEFS too. Nothing exceptionally cold.. yet..

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Well well well..

After what feels like weeks of myself and a few others on here banging on about blocking for the end of the month and how we were expecting models to start showing it, it's really starting to happen now.

Fantastic consistency and a growing trend within the EPS/GEFS too. Nothing exceptionally cold.. yet..

Slow burner to a quick Snowmaggedon,it can happen.

[Met4Cast]

The GFS is doing a classic GFS here.

If we got to this setup, there's absolutely no way that block is going to sink, the energy will 100% go under the block

However, GFS struggles to resolves this and instead fires up a rounded area of low pressure

Not perfect to end the run, but certainly a massive step forward. Temperatures below average to end the month, expect blocking to sharpen up even more in the coming days/weeks, I'm expecting to see an increasing number of snow producing cold showing up.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

GFS end of run.....any hint of mild and Atlantic longterm westerlies is imo very likely to be wrong.  IT often gets 7days wrong

 

BFTP

[Mike Poole]

Here's the end of tonight's JMA 12z (now that I know it ends!). 

T264, trop vortex, it's not on our side, great it's on the other side of the planet 

Edited November 11, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Rayth]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

GFS end of run.....any hint of mild and Atlantic longterm westerlies is imo very likely to be wrong.  IT often gets 7days wrong

 

BFTP

It’s just filling it’s underwear and trying to go back to climatology