Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Mike Poole]

As I've said before on this thread, I think the switch to cold when it comes (if it comes ) will be swift.  Much rightly made of the ECM T192 but at this point it's very mild for us at the time of year, 850s:

The potential for cold comes later.

GFS 18z run looks very poor for cold here at same time, at least until T192 anyway:

 

Edited November 9, 2018 by Mike Poole

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

18z not looking anything like EC thats for sure.

00Z runs will hopefully reveal more, GFS has the jet roaring away north of the high ..

TBH the GEFS might reveal more, if its a big synoptic outlier then we should just bin it anyway, i would anticipate some changes on the 0z suites though, whether for better or worse i dont know, i've noticed 0z saturday suites generally can change from the 12z friday suites quite often.

[bluearmy]

A surfeit of clusters on the eps tells me that we could see a change in emphasis in the extended period over the next few runs .....anything could happen .........

[feb1991blizzard]

We could still rescue this run, trough is stalling giving some WAA, admittedly not at the most favourable angle.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

18 minutes ago, Don said:

I take it the 18z is not too clever for those wanting cold!

I wouldn’t worry about anything pre 20th Nov, 

 

BFTP

[booferking]

JMA has completed 12z.

Edited November 9, 2018 by booferking

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs has been on the spice

it looked wrong in the early stages when that shortwave broke off too quickly at 138 and headed to the Azures de-amplifying the pattern.

18z 138 v's 12z 144

 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

JMA has completed 12z.

Yes, i noticed the 192 earlier was good, so no surprise how it ended up.

[Met4Cast]

TIme to bring out the JMA since the 18z GFS has gone zonal happy

Lovely.

GFS 18z seems to consistently downgrade things with the 00z typically downgrading too, then the 06z and 12z upgrade again, weird. 

[Mike Poole]

9 minutes ago, booferking said:

JMA has completed 12z.

Think this is the first time I've seen a JMA 12z long run finish, they normally just stall at T192.  Vortex decimated here comprehensively, but a lot of work to do to get any cold air to the UK at all, 850s here at same time:

Patience, I guess!

Edited November 9, 2018 by Mike Poole

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Think this is the first time I've seen a JMA run finish.

 

They always finish, along with their ensemble suite, around 2230 - 2300.

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Think this is the first time I've seen a JMA run finish, they normally just stall at T192.  Vortex decimated here comprehensively, but a lot of work to do to get any cold air to the UK at all, 850s here at same time:

Patience, I guess!

Some pretty brutal cold into Western Russia Ukarine and Eastern Belarus on that chart.

Edited November 9, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Think this is the first time I've seen a JMA run finish, they normally just stall at T192.  Vortex decimated here comprehensively, but a lot of work to do to get any cold air to the UK at all, 850s here at same time:

Patience, I guess!

The jma comes out roughly the same time the ecm comes out to 192 then extends later on to 264 11pm-sh or just after,not sure what the exact time is though for it to fully come out.

[feb1991blizzard]

Here is that aforementioned JMA ensemble mean btw, nothing to right home about and certainly doesn't back the op.

 

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here is that aforementioned JMA ensemble mean btw, nothing to right home about and certainly doesn't back the op.

 

Thanks for all this info re the JMA,folks, I didn't know it even had an ensemble!  Maybe worth paying attention to because I believe the model is a derivative of the UKMO, maybe give us an insight to that thing we can't see, MOGREPS!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Thanks for all this info re the JMA,folks, I didn't know it even had an ensemble!  Maybe worth paying attention to because I believe the model is a derivative of the UKMO, maybe give us an insight to that thing we can't see, MOGREPS!

No worries.

I didnt know that, i do know however that the UKMO rate the JMA GM highly as a model.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

I didnt know that, i do know however that the UKMO rate the JMA GM highly as a model.

 

Now there's one I see trotted out every year when the JMA shows a better solution for cold prospects than the rest 

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Now there's one I see trotted out every year when the JMA shows a better solution for cold prospects than the rest 

to be fair, Ian Fergusson told us that.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

to be fair, Ian Fergusson told us that.

He did, but I've never seen anything from the JMA to suggest it is worth more than just a cursory glance

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

He did, but I've never seen anything from the JMA to suggest it is worth more than just a cursory glance

oh i agree, i dont rate it personally, its the opposite of the GFS in the run up to cold spells, it over amplifies, which is usually muted out in its ensemble mean.

[Geordiesnow]

At this stage any model run can be correct but if the ECM and to a lesser extent the UKMO is right of having a stronger Euro high then maybe it be fair to say the GFS will end up being too quick to breakdown any blocks. 

Bear in mind the ECM has a tendacy to over amplify ridges also but we all rather if the ECM was showing these charts as it usually means its onto something. 

 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Expect the underneath of beds and the behinds of sofas to be occupied as the scary GFS 00Z run rolls out.

[SMU]

Another fairly solid 00z ECM- upper air cold pool filtering west-

 

[bluearmy]

Would be nice to see that double pronged attack on the vortex at day 10 ec op verify ......... being picking would prefer a stronger n Pacific ridge at this juncture - the GEM has certainly been out with the gfs 18z .........it did pick up the scandi high scenario but was a little premature though the now expected solution of cold pool dropping around the back was picked up first by it. 

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Another fairly solid 00z ECM- upper air cold pool filtering west-

 

EC looks to give some old skool pea souper weather next week but where do we go post day 10 is the question...