Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

15 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Looks like they see brief northerlies behind passing systems and they say “ snow will probably stay over high ground in the north.”

 

P12 shows this (yes its FI but still a possible outcome) 

P14 is the kind of pattern I am keeping an eye on with the scandi high heading towards Greenland possibly giving us an easterly  

PV very weak on P20  

[Decemberof2010]

Yes the wait continues. Nothing at the moment to get excited about in the models. Can the ECM produce some interest? And btw I see the MO as a downgrade from yesterday too. 

And looking through the GFS ensembles at 384hrs there’s only 3 that show any interest. I love cold and snow but it looks like a long chase at the moment 

[jules216]

If you play out animation of days 8-15 on GFS12z, that blocking high on the axis from Black Sea to Eastern Baltics is basically unmovable. Now 7 months and counting, I can bet it will be there on the most recent ECMWF seasonal for until at least January, then all will  hope  for SSW  and repeat of Feb/March. 

Already I can see the main focus of cold this winter will be between Eastern CONUS and Eastern Asia/Siberia, -EPO,+NAO, perhaps neutral AO at times.

Thanks to recent greenhouse warming effect the stratosphere is anomalously cold, there is no doubt about it, just look at relentless  +NAO. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well I’m seeing some ideas appearing in FI...best folk ease back a bit...there will be changes to come....keep hunting as I think we’ll find some cold....but NOT to be expected until after  midmonth and for real signs of it.....later in the month.  Let’s not get too despondent...the jet is not flat.

 

BFTP

[Mike Poole]

Well the ECM 12z at T240 may not be delivering cold to the UK (too soon anyway) but it is a very amplified pattern which bodes well for later in my opinion...

[SLEETY]

1 hour ago, jules216 said:

If you play out animation of days 8-15 on GFS12z, that blocking high on the axis from Black Sea to Eastern Baltics is basically unmovable. Now 7 months and counting, I can bet it will be there on the most recent ECMWF seasonal for until at least January, then all will  hope  for SSW  and repeat of Feb/March. 

Already I can see the main focus of cold this winter will be between Eastern CONUS and Eastern Asia/Siberia, -EPO,+NAO, perhaps neutral AO at times.

Thanks to recent greenhouse warming effect the stratosphere is anomalously cold, there is no doubt about it, just look at relentless  +NAO. 

blocking still there on ecm run as well.Whats causing this semi-permanent high over SE parts of Europe.Need it to disperse fairly soon,before it becomes a pain regarding getting cold into Europe and Uk

[jules216]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

blocking still there on ecm run as well.Whats causing this semi-permanent high over SE parts of Europe.Need it to disperse fairly soon,before it becomes a pain regarding getting cold into Europe and Uk

I dont know Sleety but looking at ECMWF seasonal and judging by T2 anomalies it will still be there at least for some winter months, I presume December.

This feature is very much so overlooked because it effects mostly Central Europe region and plagued winters there since 2012-13, apart from famous January 2017. It has been quite apparent that if pattern is amplified, eastern CONUS or Eastern ASIA get cold and we end with breadcrumbs in March.

If I have to make an educated guess  it is because of anomalously  cool stratosphere and subsequent quasi permanent +NAO since 2010,probably induced by trapped greenhouse gasses preserving the cooling stratosphere in the heart of the winter when solar irradiation is weakest.

That is why I take the analogue years before y. 2000 with a large pinch of salt as we are dealing with some uncharted territory and atmosphere that can be very stubborn, hence the birth of this Euro High/Pest  I do think though that we may have a bite at the cold cherry, but it will have to be SSW induced 2nd half of winter.

 

[Froze were the Days]

Looking at that ecm 12z from start to finish it's about as exciting as a box set of Panorama 

[Allseasons-Si]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Well the ECM 12z at T240 may not be delivering cold to the UK (too soon anyway) but it is a very amplified pattern which bodes well for later in my opinion...

 

23 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Looking at that ecm 12z from start to finish it's about as exciting as a box set of Panorama 

Well looking at these two posts^,how on earth are new folk going to learn what is going on in here,jeeeezzz!!

Mike poole is right though about an amplified pattern,but in the wrong places,look at the macro scale not the micro scale(as imby)

the pattern has been amplified for some time now and as long as we see this amp pattern continue it is keeping the pv on the ropes

there is a long way to go yet and winter isn't for another 5-6 weeks so lets all calm down a bit aaaaannnnnd!!!!...relax

I know you would probably shoot me down for showing you this 00z cfs 1 month run but it ties in with the latest Meto long range forecast  was saying:-

frost and fog are more likely to form overnight. These could be slow to clear during the daytime, given the time of year. At times the wind will turn northerly, causing a dip in temperatures and a greater chance of some snow, though this will probably stay over high ground in the north.

run it through from here(540 hrs)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=534&mode=0&carte=1&run=11

the 06z was c**p though.

i am quiet happy at the moment at watching things unfold

thanks.

 

 

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, jules216 said:

I dont know Sleety but looking at ECMWF seasonal and judging by T2 anomalies it will still be there at least for some winter months, I presume December.

This feature is very much so overlooked because it effects mostly Central Europe region and plagued winters there since 2012-13, apart from famous January 2017. It has been quite apparent that if pattern is amplified, eastern CONUS or Eastern ASIA get cold and we end with breadcrumbs in March.

These anomaly charts need to be taken with a dose of common sense because they tend to mask actual synoptics - but the idea that there has been a semi-permanent winter high in the SE of Europe since 2012 isn't borne out by the data. Taking 2012 - 2017 in turn there are 2 with above average pressure in that region through winter as a whole, 1 about average and 3 below. Winter 2015/16 was certainly a +NAO horror show.

 

 

Edited November 5, 2018 by Catacol

[jules216]

12 minutes ago, Catacol said:

These anomaly charts need to be taken with a dose of common sense because they tend to mask actual synoptics - but the idea that there has been a semi-permanent winter high in the SE of Europe since 2012 isn't borne out by the data. Taking 2012 - 2017 in turn there are 2 with above average pressure in that region through winter as a whole, and 4 below. Winter 2015/16 was certainly a +NAO horror show.

 

 

I can honestly tell you if I don't include winter of 2012/13 the winters since 2013 were a horror show in central EU through various versions of high pressure anomalies and quasi permanent +NAO, perhaps the exceptions were January 2017 and February 2018. The main persistence of this Baltic/Black sea ridge is from May to Nov this year and possibly extending to Dec 18 judging by latest ECMWF seasonal, that is some persistence

Edited November 5, 2018 by jules216

[daz_4]

7 minutes ago, jules216 said:

I can honestly tell you if I don't include winter of 2012/13 the winters since 2013 were a horror show in central EU through various versions of high pressure anomalies and quasi permanent +NAO, perhaps the exceptions were January 2017 and February 2018. The main notion of this Baltic/Black sea is from May to Nov this year and possibly extending to Dec 18 judging by latest ECMWF seasonal, that is some persistence

Exactly. 12/13 was the last normal winter. Even in January 2017 the high quickly re-established itself. Dry as hell and cold because of inversion in the end. The high is more and more a permanent feature throughout the year. Cold I could live without but water will be a huge problem for Central Europe in coming years if this is a new normal. 

Edited November 5, 2018 by daz_4

[Chesil View]

Latest tweet from Matt Hugo says that the Nov ECM seasonal maintains the risk of Northern blocking throughout the winter and more so as winter progresses. So perhaps not front loaded after all.

[bluearmy]

22 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Latest tweet from Matt Hugo says that the Nov ECM seasonal maintains the risk of Northern blocking throughout the winter and more so as winter progresses. So perhaps not front loaded after all.

apparently so but it seems that the best looking winter charts are now further away ( and probably likely to change before we get there?) 

however, there is extensive blocking shown for n Europe January and this could reposition come closer to the time. New ec46 due imminently

[Timmytour]

Reads thread. Looks great for cold prospects

Goes away for a week

Comes back. Reads thread. Looks poor for cold prospects 

Shrugs shoulders and goes away for another week.....

[Rocheydub]

All the talk of EC 46 and Matt Hugo... It nearly always changes from forecast to forecast. In my humble opinion, it's not worth the algorithm that works It!

[draztik]

9 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

All the talk of EC 46 and Matt Hugo... It nearly always changes from forecast to forecast. In my humble opinion, it's not worth the algorithm that works It!

and the truth shall set you free.... a different forecast tomorrow will bring a new opinion. Hope you're ready for the winter season.... plenty more 'potential' and the jam is almost always tomorrow.

[feb1991blizzard]

EC32 zonal crap throughout - week 3 just about as bad as you can get with a deep trough anchored to NW, week 4 does  show a height rise to NE but its still the trough thats driving our weather.

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC32 zonal crap throughout - week 3 just about as bad as you can get with a deep trough anchored to NW, week 4 does  show a height rise to NE but its still the trough thats driving our weather.

Cheers for the update. It really does seem to go against the meto. How about weeks 5 and 6? 

Edited November 5, 2018 by blizzard81

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Cheers for the update. How about weeks 5 and 6? 

There isnt a week 5 and 6 on a Monday, only on a Thursday, hence why i still call it the EC32 mistakenly.

[Geordiesnow]

Theres a reason why the professionals in public don't tend to talk about long term prospects because short term changes will always affect the longer term outlook so all this talk about what the longer term models are saying is kind of irrelevant in my view. Of course in terms of looking for trends then there definately does not seem to be anything significantly colder on the horizon but whilst its very mild now(for some), the trend is for things to turn cooler and anything significantly mild may not return for a good while. 

18Z still shows the deep low for Friday, ECM/UKMO kind of shows it also but hard to tell between the timeframes involved so lets see if the GFS maintains this deep low for Friday on future runs, could be some disruptive weather for some. 

The other feature for Wednesday could also cause some disruption for a while with gales perhaps severe gales locally possible. 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

There isnt a week 5 and 6 on a Monday, only on a Thursday, hence why i still call it the EC32 mistakenly.

Ah, I see. I didn't know that. Let's hope Thursdays update gives us some hope for December. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Ah, I see. I didn't know that. Let's hope Thursdays update gives us some hope for December. 

Yes - lets hope so.

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

There isnt a week 5 and 6 on a Monday, only on a Thursday, hence why i still call it the EC32 mistakenly.

Really ?

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Really ?

I was actually just about to caveat myself and say - 'unless someone who has a subscription tells me different' - i take it that means there is.