Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Chesil View]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes im a bit confused by it if im honest...

They are talking late November though so the usual caveats apply.

Ad a fan of cold foggy frosty weather in November some of the outputs are horrid...15/16 degrees this week is just awful for November.

Awful but not unusual though NWS.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Whats your thoughts Feb? Outputs seem to have gone very zonal pretty much since Exeter plumped for a cold 2nd half of November..

Ok its only the 5th but looking at GFS again this morning i cant see much hope of a cold high by mid Nov.

All depends tbh, if we get to the stage where the ridge flatterns and a powerful jet circles the globe with no advection at all into the polar regions and the strat zonal winds are strong as well then we could be staring down the barrel, i actually have a feeling - just a punt though that no sooner as the scandi ridge flatterns, an amplified atlantic one will advertise itself in GFS FI, it will start off as cold zonality around late month but could end up as a Northerly in last few days Nov / first week of Dec.

[Chesil View]

31 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes im a bit confused by it if im honest...

They are talking late November though so the usual caveats apply.

Ad a fan of cold foggy frosty weather in November some of the outputs are horrid...15/16 degrees this week is just awful for November.

Awful but not unusual. NWS.

I,m with you on preferring cold dog and frost though .

[northwestsnow]

16 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Awful but not unusual. NWS.

I,m with you on preferring cold dog and frost though .

Doesn't look like there is going to be much of that for the 1st half of November at the very least- i was hoping EC would be better..but its not, its zonal +NAO all the way out to mid month, and possibly beyond looking at day 10..

I will continue to hunt for the cold though in spite of the current outputs..

Edited November 5, 2018 by northwestsnow

[ICE COLD]

41 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Doesn't look like there is going to be much of that for the 1st half of November at the very least- i was hoping EC would be better..but its not, its zonal +NAO all the way out to mid month, and possibly beyond looking at day 10..

I will continue to hunt for the cold though in spite of the current outputs..

I quite like the ECM , oviously not the wind and rain on it but the PV is still very disorganised. The whole way through the run high pressure around the globe punching into the pole . Patience friends patience. 

[mulzy]

No amount of sugar-coating can take away from the fact we are into an extended period of mild, wet and windy weather.  Even the 10-15 period is not very inspiring either, possibly more settled later in southern parts as the Euro high ridges north.  The extended EPS has a *strong* signal for low heights in the south of Greenland vicinity.

Not a shock as this has been advertised for a few days now.

Edited November 5, 2018 by mulzy

[SLEETY]

Until we get rid of the semi-permanent High over SE Europe which is bringing very mild weather over many parts of Europe,then I can’t see how we can get a cold spell developing.Its been above average in parts of Europe for weeks now.

 

 

 

 

[daz_4]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Until we get rid of the semi-permanent High over SE Europe which is bringing very mild weather over many parts of Europe,then I can’t see how we can get a cold spell developing.Its been above average in parts of Europe for weeks now.

If only weeks. It has been seven months at least. Not sure what we can realistically expect from the upcoming winter. Spring and summer was the warmest on record here. Autumn will probably be the same with the way November is progressing. I don't think we will see a sudden switch to cold and I'm immune to the phrase "long term background signals are looking good." They always look good until they collapse with approaching December 

[shaky]

11 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

If only weeks. It has been seven months at least. Not sure what we can realistically expect from the upcoming winter. Spring and summer was the warmest on record here. Autumn will probably be the same with the way November is progressing. I don't think we will see a sudden switch to cold and I'm immune to the phrase "long term background signals are looking good." They always look good until they collapse with approaching December 

For all the blessing that high had during the summer months it is now that same high doing our head in for the end of autumn early winter!!and i totally agree until those heights get banished we are stuck with boring weather!!i dont care about that scandi high or how big it is right now cos its doing us no favours what so ever right now!!rather the whole pattern get shunted eastwards right now than be stuck in crappy southerlies!!

[carinthian]

On ‎04‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 08:12, carinthian said:

Morning all. Almost tropical like in the mountains this morning. Warmer with height. currently +10C at 2200m asl. Latest fax chart for most of the week indicating much of the same regarding the very mild conditions to persist . The UK  not looking good stuck under rinse and spin against the block. By day 7 ,we expect some lower thickness values to seep in from the west, so a slow change to cooler temps in our part of the world. Longer term charts I have been told are similar offerings to UK Met Office forecast for a gradual change to much colder conditions in the last 3rd of the month. However, not privy to view these. So from ski resort preparation point of view its a matter of sit back and wait and see. Certainly not good at the moment in the short to medium term in the hunt for cold and snow.

C

Ok got an update this morning from the team .No change for the next 5 days, however by weekend indications of a weakening of the block that should allow some progress of Atlantic weather fronts past the meridian followed by a slow falling of temperature thickness values generally across much of Western Europe. So turning less mild next weekend for many. Next, I asked the reasoning for their predictions of a colder last third of the month ( with specifics to UK) Their forecast model continues to show a projected jet stream at 300mb and 200mb levels  less than active or penetrative  towards the British Isles with a buckle south. This should eventually allow "opening up of the isobars" and allow ridging of high pressure over or towards the British Isles, possible with retrogressing further North and West with time. ( Hence a colder last 3rd of the month ). Hope this helps, of course this is only one view from over here but maybe along the lines of UKMO longer term forecast for the months end.

C

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

36 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

If only weeks. It has been seven months at least. Not sure what we can realistically expect from the upcoming winter. Spring and summer was the warmest on record here. Autumn will probably be the same with the way November is progressing. I don't think we will see a sudden switch to cold and I'm immune to the phrase "long term background signals are looking good." They always look good until they collapse with approaching December 

The autumn CET has so far been slightly below average so as long as we get a cool down towards the last 3rd of November we should be looking at a below average autumn. I’m optimistic of a change in wind direction in the 2nd half of November.

[daz_4]

12 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The autumn CET has so far been slightly below average... 

Yeah, my post was about Central Europe, not UK 

[weirpig]

Gfs 6z at 240h  Quite a difference compared to its previous run  ( which you would expect at day 10)   shows us under a northerly of sorts  with ridging towards greenland.  Not  artic weather by any means  but will feel seasonal

[summer blizzard]

Yes. On the GFS6z we see the high over Europe become more of a south Russian High which with a fairly weak Azores High allows the trough to push into Europe keeping us cool and wet by day (probably still mild ish at night without very cool uppers).

[Chesil View]

3 hours ago, mulzy said:

No amount of sugar-coating can take away from the fact we are into an extended period of mild, wet and windy weather.  Even the 10-15 period is not very inspiring either, possibly more settled later in southern parts as the Euro high ridges north.  The extended EPS has a *strong* signal for low heights in the south of Greenland vicinity.

Not a shock as this has been advertised for a few days now.

Not a shock either because widespread cold and snow is unusual in the first two thirds of November at anyway.

[MP-R]

5 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes im a bit confused by it if im honest...

They are talking late November though so the usual caveats apply.

Ad a fan of cold foggy frosty weather in November some of the outputs are horrid...15/16 degrees this week is just awful for November.

Indeed awful, although could be forgiven if it came with sunshine! It’s the dullness that gets too much after a while. 2003, 2007 and 2011 all had such temps but with sunshine... such a difference.

Having said that, I think when our source of air changes to the North Atlantic later in the week, rather than Spain, temps will fall back to nearer normal.

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

Still no good news whatsoever from the GFS 6z and I fear here in South Wales we could be looking at more flooding again just 3 weeks after the last lot fortunately there are signs of the Atlantic lows managing to finally start breaking through by the end of the week and push the blocking high slightly further east and allow the unsettled, less mild weather to reach the continent and while this isn't good news for cold lovers it does at least get the rainbands moving through much quicker instead of lingering in the same areas so rainfall totals shouldn't be so high. In the meantime though it'll be another busy week for us watching the river levels once again 

[bluearmy]

4 hours ago, carinthian said:

Ok got an update this morning from the team .No change for the next 5 days, however by weekend indications of a weakening of the block that should allow some progress of Atlantic weather fronts past the meridian followed by a slow falling of temperature thickness values generally across much of Western Europe. So turning less mild next weekend for many. Next, I asked the reasoning for their predictions of a colder last third of the month ( with specifics to UK) Their forecast model continues to show a projected jet stream at 300mb and 200mb levels  less than active or penetrative  towards the British Isles with a buckle south. This should eventually allow "opening up of the isobars" and allow ridging of high pressure over or towards the British Isles, possible with retrogressing further North and West with time. ( Hence a colder last 3rd of the month ). Hope this helps, of course this is only one view from over here but maybe along the lines of UKMO longer term forecast for the months end.

C

The wording now picks out 'northerly winds' from time to time which indicates the block retrogressing west and some scandi troughing …. in line with Thursday evening's ec46 - mogreps must have moved in that direction

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

P19 has a nice pattern with the lows diving south 

some interesting patterns in the GEM ensembles from the 0z run

P9 pick of the bunch    

P8 

just shows how much the models are struggling with the difference in the pressure forecast for Oslo

Friday 

Today 

Very difficult to say whether the pressure will go higher or lower in Reykjavik  

Greenland pretty split too 

I think the ups and downs will continue in the models this week with some runs going more unsettled and some keeping the high to the east stronger with more of a blocked pattern.

 

Edited November 5, 2018 by Kirkcaldy Weather

[Geordiesnow]

I think its getting increasingly likely if anything cold does come along it will be more from a Northerly to NW'ly blast than anything from the East as the models have really ramped up on the Atlantic winning the battle. At this time of year I certainly don't mind that, rather have Atlantic weather during the Autumn months as it should be really. Friday's low does look fairly deep so one to keep an eye on. 

Although rainfall amounts will be higher in the West I don't think flooding will be a bit issue as we have the usual gaps between weather systems but it does look like a wet week for Western parts especially in Northern Ireland.

[SLEETY]

36 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

I think its getting increasingly likely if anything cold does come along it will be more from a Northerly to NW'ly blast than anything from the East as the models have really ramped up on the Atlantic winning the battle. At this time of year I certainly don't mind that, rather have Atlantic weather during the Autumn months as it should be really. Friday's low does look fairly deep so one to keep an eye on. 

Although rainfall amounts will be higher in the West I don't think flooding will be a bit issue as we have the usual gaps between weather systems but it does look like a wet week for Western parts especially in Northern Ireland.

well updated met office forecast agrees with you,winds turning northerly at times later in the month with snow 

[carinthian]

7 hours ago, carinthian said:

Ok got an update this morning from the team .No change for the next 5 days, however by weekend indications of a weakening of the block that should allow some progress of Atlantic weather fronts past the meridian followed by a slow falling of temperature thickness values generally across much of Western Europe. So turning less mild next weekend for many. Next, I asked the reasoning for their predictions of a colder last third of the month ( with specifics to UK) Their forecast model continues to show a projected jet stream at 300mb and 200mb levels  less than active or penetrative  towards the British Isles with a buckle south. This should eventually allow "opening up of the isobars" and allow ridging of high pressure over or towards the British Isles, possible with retrogressing further North and West with time. ( Hence a colder last 3rd of the month ). Hope this helps, of course this is only one view from over here but maybe along the lines of UKMO longer term forecast for the months end.

C

Further to the above post, here is a good example from GFS latest run 300t of " opening up of the isobars "

C

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Something’s brewing in the last third of November! Interesting looking chart for next Sunday on the GFS 12z

[Tim Bland]

26 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Something’s brewing in the last third of November! Interesting looking chart for next Sunday on the GFS 12z

Looks average to me in FI ...the wait continues zzzzzzzz

[Tim Bland]

37 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

well updated met office forecast agrees with you,winds turning northerly at times later in the month with snow 

Looks like they see brief northerlies behind passing systems and they say “ snow will probably stay over high ground in the north.”