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Arctic Sea Ice - The Refreeze 2018/19

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8 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

no of these charts jive with news articles at the time about the alarming reduction in sea ice in the arctic that appeared from the 1920s through the early 1950s

Goes to show that media portrayals of scientific data rarely align with the scientific data itself!

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9 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Goes to show that media portrayals of scientific data rarely align with the scientific data itself!

Good to know. Perhaps the climate will be ok after all then!

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On 31/01/2019 at 17:50, parrotingfantasist said:

image.thumb.png.9981cc32b2c6ab634f2f48dd70ded628.pngSurge of warm air might curtail further ice growth?

It has but its more because of the ice loss in the Bering sea which meant ice extent has gone down and slowed right down at the same time. Infact the weather in the Bering sea does look rather interesting with frequent southerly winds and strong lows forecast to head into the Bering stright so how much ice there will be in 7 days time in that area will be interesting too see. 

I have a feeling we are going too see a repeat of last year in the melting season of very strong Atlanticfication occurring also. I do hope the Barants and the Bering sea in particular can recover and see some proper cold air soon because whilst the peripherally ice in some regions are largely irrelevant, they are more important in the Barants Sea and the Bering sea to limit the inflow of warmer ocean waters affecting sea ice melt. 

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It just worries me to see both ocean entrances now acting this way over Winter refreeze with any passing storm able to mix up salinity/warmth enough to take ice?

Last winter ice over the Pacific side was very low so if this year ends up similar I have to think that the impacts of the oceans on the basin has passed a point that keeps the areas blocking the basin from swells/mixing are growing less and allowing both sides of the basin to see their surface layers mixed out from their old stratified setup.

This makes holding ice over summer harder for the basin than when it was supported by the deep halocline and early deep cold lasting all winter.

 

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22 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

It just worries me to see both ocean entrances now acting this way over Winter refreeze with any passing storm able to mix up salinity/warmth enough to take ice?

Last winter ice over the Pacific side was very low so if this year ends up similar I have to think that the impacts of the oceans on the basin has passed a point that keeps the areas blocking the basin from swells/mixing are growing less and allowing both sides of the basin to see their surface layers mixed out from their old stratified setup.

This makes holding ice over summer harder for the basin than when it was supported by the deep halocline and early deep cold lasting all winter.

 

I don't think we have passed a point on the pacific side of the Arctic as the Bering sea ice will always be influenced by wind direction although traditionally ridge patterns into the Bering sea should be a rare event although last winter it was quite a common occurance, this year there has not been many ridges until now and it really is affecting the ice in the Bering Sea 

Meanwhile the open water to the North of Svalbard could well be a game changer, not once has the true ice edge hit svalbard  since the summer of 2017 and just  in a matter of 10-14 days how the ice has retreated and edged quite far North suggests some sort of ocean current is at play here. Is this going to be a permanent thing going forward? Either way, it can't be good for the sea ice and as I said, another extreme Atlantification event for the summer looks a real possibility.

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Just to add a bit better news for the ice is that PIOMAS has updated its ice volume and January was a decent month for ice volume growth and ice volume is around 7th lowest with 2014 and 2015 being higher in the dataset. Either way, its alot higher than 2017 and even 2018. Will be interesting how the volume reacts to this month because its a right old mix bag at the moment with huge warmth in the Beaufort but much colder conditions over the pole and the Siberian side of the basin which looks like it will transfer towards the Chukchi sea eventually. 

Also interesting to note this year it seems the thicker ice is more over the Beaufort Sea and the anamolies over Siberia are not as high as last year where there was lots of compaction due to winds. Also some 2+ year ice has moved from the Beaufort through the Beaufort Gyre and into the Chuckchi which will create that "babies arm"(as Grey wolf would call it) of thicker ice which in theory should help the CAB but more vulnable to melt. Should be an interesting melt season!

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