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weirpig

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As the Anchorage Daily News pointed out, official temperatures used to be recorded at Merrill Field airport, which was done from 1943 to 1952. Merrill Field reached the 90 degrees mark once before, but this is “the warmest temperature ever measured in the Anchorage Bowl,” tweeted Alaskan climatologist Brian Brettschneider.

While a record for Anchorage, this is not a record for the state. In 1915, Fort Yukon in central eastern Alaska reached 100 degrees F (37.7 degrees C). More recently, McGrath hit 94 degrees F (31.6 degrees C) on June 17, 2013, accordingto AccuWeather.

What caused the high temps in 1915?

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On 07/07/2019 at 12:35, Snow phall said:

As the Anchorage Daily News pointed out, official temperatures used to be recorded at Merrill Field airport, which was done from 1943 to 1952. Merrill Field reached the 90 degrees mark once before, but this is “the warmest temperature ever measured in the Anchorage Bowl,” tweeted Alaskan climatologist Brian Brettschneider.

While a record for Anchorage, this is not a record for the state. In 1915, Fort Yukon in central eastern Alaska reached 100 degrees F (37.7 degrees C). More recently, McGrath hit 94 degrees F (31.6 degrees C) on June 17, 2013, accordingto AccuWeather.

What caused the high temps in 1915?

Extremes in atmospheric circulation? As you can see from the charts below, the warm temperatures in Alaska occured alongside some persistently very cool weather over a large swathe of North America. This must have been the result of a particularly warm and persistent anticyclone over Alaska bringing down cool northerlies over the North American continent. The record of 37.8C was set on 27th of June that year.

image.thumb.png.8446517472fc2c108a29395eb6b26f50.pngimage.thumb.png.7b114cdddffdb3ff3c57c397c108f1c8.png  

Less effort is required to deliver such heatwaves today. Notice that with the recent heatwave that any notably cool air is restricted to a much smaller area of Canada? With more warmth across our planet it takes less extreme synoptics to challenge record highs, just check out the current anomaly plot below. You have to wonder what temperatures would be seen over Alaska with the same synoptic pattern as 1915.

image.thumb.png.a177b98a455503aea36d0f956dc01eba.png

Fort Yukon didn't challenge records  as the heat was concentrated further south at the time

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7 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Extremes in atmospheric circulation? As you can see from the charts below, the warm temperatures in Alaska occured alongside some persistently very cool weather over a large swathe of North America. This must have been the result of a particularly warm and persistent anticyclone over Alaska bringing down cool northerlies over the North American continent. The record of 37.8C was set on 27th of June that year.

image.thumb.png.8446517472fc2c108a29395eb6b26f50.pngimage.thumb.png.7b114cdddffdb3ff3c57c397c108f1c8.png  

Less effort is required to deliver such heatwaves today. Notice that with the recent heatwave that any notably cool air is restricted to a much smaller area of Canada? With more warmth across our planet it takes less extreme synoptics to challenge record highs, just check out the current anomaly plot below. You have to wonder what temperatures would be seen over Alaska with the same synoptic pattern as 1915.

image.thumb.png.a177b98a455503aea36d0f956dc01eba.png

Fort Yukon didn't challenge records  as the heat was concentrated further south at the time

i would say the July 2019 chart at the bottom looks almost identical to the June 2015 chart..cold across Northern and Western Canada...warm across Alaska and Greenland..cold across Scandinavia and south america..away from Alaska N.America is not having a warm summer at all thus far...maybe August and September will be warm?

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3 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

i would say the July 2019 chart at the bottom looks almost identical to the June 2015 chart..cold across Northern and Western Canada...warm across Alaska and Greenland..cold across Scandinavia and south america..away from Alaska N.America is not having a warm summer at all thus far...maybe August and September will be warm?

CM

Think you mean 1915!, and yes I agree the situation in the NH looks  identical.

MIA

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23 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

i would say the July 2019 chart at the bottom looks almost identical to the June 2015 chart..cold across Northern and Western Canada...warm across Alaska and Greenland..cold across Scandinavia and south america..away from Alaska N.America is not having a warm summer at all thus far...maybe August and September will be warm?

It has been a theme of recent months for much above average temperatures over Alaska and colder temperatures over NW Canada. Here is a few months recently...

image.thumb.png.1dbcd95c1c9ad88dc5c2715d579427b4.pngimage.thumb.png.0f953eae587cbe3660518202c4a9c3af.pngimage.thumb.png.95bac8ac57b9ee7b4e0d1c879866adc8.pngimage.thumb.png.c18f2e31b18570ed822c3c25a7df02f6.png      

The relative warmth over Alaska has been remarkably consistent in recent times? I think the last below average month in parts of Alaska was November 2017. I can imagine the lack of La Nina's and negative PDOs has contributed to this somewhat.

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5 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

It has been a theme of recent months for much above average temperatures over Alaska and colder temperatures over NW Canada. Here is a few months recently...

image.thumb.png.1dbcd95c1c9ad88dc5c2715d579427b4.pngimage.thumb.png.0f953eae587cbe3660518202c4a9c3af.pngimage.thumb.png.95bac8ac57b9ee7b4e0d1c879866adc8.pngimage.thumb.png.c18f2e31b18570ed822c3c25a7df02f6.png      

The relative warmth over Alaska has been remarkably consistent in recent times? I think the last below average month in parts of Alaska was November 2017. I can imagine the lack of La Nina's and negative PDOs has contributed to this somewhat.

looking at the rest of the summer for 1915 in Edmonton..August was hot and Sept was warmer than normal..winter 15-16 was very mild apart from Jan 1916 which was cold.

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Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

looking at the rest of the summer for 1915 in Edmonton..August was hot and Sept was warmer than normal..winter 15-16 was very mild apart from Jan 1916 which was cold.

It would be interesting to see how the model output thread would go if the same winter transpired here. A  very cold November, exceptionally mild January and then a cold March. Weird winter.

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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Some might find the paper in the new research section of interest. It's a new study that suggests we could be on the precipice of runaway changes in the ocean carbon cycle. Once crossed, it would plunge the ocean and climate into the states seen during most of the mass extinction events in the geological record.
 

 

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Posted (edited)
On 10/07/2019 at 11:24, BornFromTheVoid said:

Some might find the paper in the new research section of interest. It's a new study that suggests we could be on the precipice of runaway changes in the ocean carbon cycle. Once crossed, it would plunge the ocean and climate into the states seen during most of the mass extinction events in the geological record.
 

 

It's ever more clear that if humanity carries on as it is that people after us will live on a very different , far more degraded, planet. That is awful to contemplate - I've understood the basics of climate science for a long time, decades, but for us to actually be where it said we would be? Well, firstly several decades have past (how time flies) an the science is thus being shown to be right and secondly, gulp 😟

How this madness will be averted is increasingly less clear to me - indeed I fear humanity is reacting to what is increasingly obvious by doing less not more about it.

I thus get what drives people towards XR. Sadly, XR people are part of the 'elite' in that they are educated and thoughtful and humanity is headed away from that and instead listening to those who pedal lies, fantasy, anti-education and anti-science.

 

Edited by Devonian

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Posted (edited)

Rather too reminiscent of the Nazis' destruction of 'Jew Science', and of the Soviets' attitude to 'Imperialist Science'...The lunatics really have taken over the asylum!:wallbash:

Edited by Ed Stone

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26 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Rather too reminiscent of the Nazis' destruction of 'Jew Science', and of the Soviets' attitude to 'Imperialist Science'...The lunatics really have taken over the asylum!:wallbash:

Yep  When you have the likes of them  Russia  and Saudi  Blocking Climate concerns   then im afraid there is no hope .  Having suffering  the loss of a few inches height  during the current hot spell  i expect  to be on par with the umpa lumpas   before any meaningful change happens. 

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32 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Yep  When you have the likes of them  Russia  and Saudi  Blocking Climate concerns   then im afraid there is no hope .  Having suffering  the loss of a few inches height  during the current hot spell  i expect  to be on par with the umpa lumpas   before any meaningful change happens. 

Aye, the US, Russia and China can block the concerns all they like but thermometers don't have a political agenda, they will carry on rising unfortunately.

In the meantime shares prices in air conditioning companies jumped yet again today.

 

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As the old, debunked questions are now being recycled, I'd thought I'd post this discussion...to remind folks of what the answers are...?

 

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29 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

https://apple.news/AmHj9twVzR0a4YR8prLS3cg

 

i leave this here 

this is not my opinion just something i saw 🧐

Given this man has connections to the fossil fuels industry I'm not surprised he is lobbying for them (look at his past articles). Canada may benefit from milder winters but at what cost?

If climate change continues unabated, global income may well decline by 23% (if things continue unabated). In Canada, there will be the greater risk of flooding events, wildfires and heatwaves. Towns built on melting permafrost might literally collapse.

Yes it will hold 20% of the world's freshwater, yes a new trade route will open up in the arctic but even if there is benefits to be had, it won't even be for everyone and large swathes of the population would suffer due to changes in climate. There may well be other ways in which the warming could damage Canada and its economy. This would be one of the many scenarios. Though this article goes through one such scenario it's an interesting read.

Would having a potential benefit be worth having whilst the rest of the world suffers?

https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/mbanm4/how-climate-change-could-turn-canada-into-a-global-superpower 

 

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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The kindest way of replying to this article is to describe it as very simplistic. Joe Oliver obviously assumes the climate system operates in a one dimensional way, like turning up the thermostat in the room and the room gets a bit warmer, and completely overlooks the multitude of feedbacks which would result from, say, a 4c rise in global temperature- a colossal amount- and which would likely impact Canada with just as many negatives as anywhere else.

Edited by Terminal Moraine

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30 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Towns built on melting permafrost might literally collapse.

 

 

construction is my specialist field and its my Job..Canadian construction practices already allow for major freeze thaw cycles and the associated ground heave that comes with it..so towns located in areas of permafrost now ..would be in future subject to the same forces already in existence in the rest of the country..so collapsing towns will not happen

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18 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

construction is my specialist field and its my Job..Canadian construction practices already allow for major freeze thaw cycles and the associated ground heave that comes with it..so towns located in areas of permafrost now ..would be in future subject to the same forces already in existence in the rest of the country..so collapsing towns will not happen

Is a freeze thaw cycle the same as a huge area of permafrost melt though? In areas further North especially, the construction isn't set up to withstand such changes. Urban areas further south may be better built but you can see from these just how dramatic permafrost collapse can be.

image.thumb.png.519fa4836cd270111e32dfdbdb33416e.pngimage.thumb.png.a04c27d87a62c890feee2cfc85fd32a3.pngimage.thumb.png.f5840eea64e7e1ab1b4ecc88bb2b92b7.png 

This article goes through some of the impacts that are starting to be noticed?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/it-scares-me-permafrost-thaw-in-canadian-arctic-sign-of-global-trend-1.4069173

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1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Is a freeze thaw cycle the same as a huge area of permafrost melt though? In areas further North especially, the construction isn't set up to withstand such changes. Urban areas further south may be better built but you can see from these just how dramatic permafrost collapse can be.

image.thumb.png.519fa4836cd270111e32dfdbdb33416e.pngimage.thumb.png.a04c27d87a62c890feee2cfc85fd32a3.pngimage.thumb.png.f5840eea64e7e1ab1b4ecc88bb2b92b7.png 

This article goes through some of the impacts that are starting to be noticed?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/it-scares-me-permafrost-thaw-in-canadian-arctic-sign-of-global-trend-1.4069173

oh it is though..my company does work right up to the arctic circle and beyond..we have a special division dedicated to "northern work"..simply because how you build there is different to further south..and the fact is permafrost will not just melt overnight either.

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1 minute ago, cheeky_monkey said:

oh it is though..my company does work right up to the arctic circle and beyond..we have a special division dedicated to "northern work"..simply because how you build there is different to further south..and the fact is permafrost will not just melt overnight either.

Even though the article below refers to knocking down in Inuvik due to the very problem I referred to?

Besides permafrost melting can cause instability within a matter of days.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/permafrost-melting-1.5119767

 

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1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Even though the article below refers to knocking down in Inuvik due to the very problem I referred to?

Besides permafrost melting can cause instability within a matter of days.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/permafrost-melting-1.5119767

 

don't believe everything you read in the media..the guy is a biologist not a geotechnical engineer

Edited by cheeky_monkey

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28 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

don't believe everything you read in the media..the guy is a biologist not a geotechnical engineer

I'll try to remember that next time someone quotes a dog biologist views on polar bears (Dr Susan Crockford) or the 'watts up' views of an ex TV weatherman, or the NIPCC (99.9% non-climate scientists) or the 'no trick zone' anti climate science ramblings of that civil engineer Pierre L. Gosselin etc etc etc

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