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  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
    1 hour ago, Fiona Robertson said:

    I don't have any relevant qualifications to speak of, I have no training or experience in met-type stuff so just ignore me if you want to, but something about this bunny has me concerned. Conditions seem to be right for it to absolutely bomb.

    Has me a bit jumpy to be sure! The water temps off the coast mean it has fuel to maintain , or even continue intensifying?, as it makes landfall then there is the 'feed' of moisture from the ocean even when its eye is ashore?

    The speed of its development, and expected arrival, is leading to issues with folk making preparations to either hunker down or evacuate with the 'last minute' crew battling with everyone else for what is on the shelves/in the petrol station tanks.

    Let us see how things look once the sun is up!

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    For those who never saw it watch this .. gets 'interesting' around 30-34 mins in !

    All I can say is this footage is insane on here. Will be an incredible long line till we get another vid like this  https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10156491591296138&id=501146137&

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
    1 hour ago, Fiona Robertson said:

    I don't have any relevant qualifications to speak of, I have no training or experience in met-type stuff so just ignore me if you want to, but something about this bunny has me concerned. Conditions seem to be right for it to absolutely bomb.

    The forecast does call for Rapid Intensification ( 30 Knots in 24 hrs).

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
    6 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

    Has me a bit jumpy to be sure! The water temps off the coast mean it has fuel to maintain , or even continue intensifying?, as it makes landfall then there is the 'feed' of moisture from the ocean even when its eye is ashore?

    The speed of its development, and expected arrival, is leading to issues with folk making preparations to either hunker down or evacuate with the 'last minute' crew battling with everyone else for what is on the shelves/in the petrol station tanks.

    Let us see how things look once the sun is up!

    I was watching the NHC Broadcast on Facebook yesterday and what struck you was the message of how little time people had to make prteperations. Tropical storm force winds expected at midnight tonight UK time time.. a little over 13 hours.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Yep 968-969mb. With winds just touching 90kts in the ne quad. Sw quad quite a bit weaker. 

    A hurricane will often lag dvorak which is really where the winds and pressure Will be once the hurricane has responded to how it looks on sat reprensention  

    He does look might good atm. And raw dvorak is even stronger at 100-110kts. 

    So he say currently 90kts with potential already to go to 110kts but possibly even higher 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    1 hour ago, Fiona Robertson said:

    They've just measured a 968.

    I think recon has spotted readings as low as 965mb, either way its poised for rapid intensification going by this image

    DpCd0l6W4AAm7RL.jpg Intense convection on the east and northern sides of the storm, its beginning to look well defined.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives

    The Dvorak estimation from the site whose link I put up earlier has an estimated central pressure of 934mb . I'm not sure if there is any analysis as to the effectiveness of this automated analysis v human analysis but it does indicate that strengthening continues.

    What also may be an indicator of further rapid intensification is that on the second pass of the current aircraft in Michael saw a drop in pressure from 970 to 967 in 105 mins and more importantly the eye had gone from being elliptical to circular, albeit open in SW 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    964mb, flight level winds at 119KT.

    He be a major very soon.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Could we get a run at mid end 4?

    Ocean heat content very high in the next 24 hours / low shear..

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Last few frames of IR has seen the dry air gradually being squeezed out as the convection wraps around from the WNW

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Last hour or so change in appearence

    Dry air intrusion gone

    Convection wrapped

    Eye becoming circular

    25CDD301-C9A0-4198-9EBF-38DE99868758.thumb.png.7c4caf2bdedcfdbbd9bc3dcef7bdac7f.png126FF669-4F34-4C84-915E-0F4AC8B9B88B.thumb.png.544576e254b1ab57097b6282d845ddd2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Eyewall is now closed.

    Euro drops to 934mb (cat 4).

    This is the real deal folks, like Harvey and Charley, a cane that is still bombing at landfall.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Gust in eastern eyewall reported at 134mph.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    6 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    Eyewall is now closed.

    Euro drops to 934mb (cat 4).

    This is the real deal folks, like Harvey and Charley, a cane that is still bombing at landfall.

    & Models also slowing its foreward momentum down slightly giving more time for intensification...

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Check out the goes 17 sat, can see all three systems.

    image.thumb.png.728fe779e008a2d0eb867d85813a989e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    image.thumb.png.71c3ab82093524946c4992b7ae153d4a.png

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