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51 minutes ago, John Badrick said:

a stopped clock is right twice a day 😁

Aye for two seconds a day....if you ask Mrs C, even I'm right more often than that!

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1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

There's an index member in my research model with a period of about 6-7 years (it hits with relative precision at 13, 20, 33, and 46 years and needs a slight adjustment at the 6-7, 26-27 and 39-40 year intervals. Look how juicy this analogue set is (going back to start of CET) ... this is listed by the January of each case so years before these contain the Nov-Dec analogues ... and this includes only those cases needing adjustments of less than ten days ... because we're talking about retrograde index, the off-set pairs run earlier for first more recent, going back in time, and later for second of the pair, by about 10 days, e.g., the 6,7 set would include for example 2013 an earlier index by 8 days than 2019, and 2012 a later index by 7 days. It's similar for the 39,40 pairs. For example there, 1979 would be running later than 2019 by about 7 days. For the 26, 27 set, we are looking at the more recent of the pairs being 6 days earlier and the second less recent being 8 days later than 2019. 

(6,7) 2012,2013 ... 1966, 1967 ... 1920, 1921 ... 1874, 1875 ... 1828, 1829 ... 1782, 1783 ... 1736, 1737 ... 1690, 1691

(13) ...... 2006 .......... 1960 ............ 1914 ............... 1868 .............. 1822 ............. 1776 ........... 1730 ............. 1684

(20) ....... 1999 .......... 1953 ............ 1907 ............... 1861 .............. 1815 ............. 1769 ........... 1723 ............. 1677

(26,27) . 1992,1993 . 1946,1947 . 1900,1901 ... 1854, 1855 ... 1808, 1809 ... 1762, 1763 ... 1716, 1717 ... 1670, 1671

(33) ....... 1986 .......... 1940 ............ 1894 .............. 1848 ............... 1802 .............. 1756 ........... 1710 ............. 1664

(39,40) . 1979,1980 . 1933,1934 . 1887,1888 ... 1841, 1842 ... 1795, 1796 ... 1749, 1750 ... 1703, 1704 ... (before CET) 

(46) ........ 1973 .......... 1927 ............ 1881 ............... 1835 .............. 1789 ............. 1743 ........... 1697 .........

_______________________________________________________________

This slice of the past catches quite a few of the exceptionally cold winters, narrowly missing 1709 which only needs a 15 day adjustment towards earlier dates, but being out of phase entirely with a few like 1740 and 1963. However, the overall average of these winters when adjusted by the required number of days (where daily data available) produces a profile that reaches a minimum of 2.5 deg below the current average around mid to late January and runs generally below normal throughout the winter season. The notable cold winters in the set include 1684, 1716, 1763, 1795, 1829, 1855, 1881, 1947, 1979, 1986, 

This index value is rated as 10 to 15 per cent of total variability and is second most significant. It is related to inner solar system magnetic field flux changes associated with the planet Mercury. The one slightly larger index value components is related to Jupiter and the analogue set there is regarded as linked to progressive features so less associated with blocking, more to do with position of long-wave ridge and trough features.

One other detail that I can report from the research is that retrograde episodes can be expected roughly every second month from this index value, and on a longer, slower time cycle, about every 7-8 months from a separate index member, and that one has analogues with winter 2010-2011 and also includes 1978-79 and 1962-63, also 1946-47. The episodes would be expected to occur 2-3 days later each eight years going back in time, and you start to lose well-timed analogues before about 1906-07, running into a different set timed for somewhat earlier running back from 1823-24, so that includes 1816, 1808, 1800, 1792, 1784 and 1776 as analogues for January. This does not look to be a dominant index value in the research, but it's good to see a reasonably low temperature index from that one combined with the principal retrograde member.  

If we can't build the cold blocking pattern out of these materials, then we seem to be losing our best chance but the long solar downturn may allow weaker analogue sets to succeed in the future. You have to wonder if we have a "big one" in our near future despite what we are allegedly doing to the boundary layer. It does concern me, but a signal of +1.0 C competing with all these others may be in over its head, we can only hope, right Fred?

 

That looks like a lifetime of research there RJ ? Its excellent. Genius really.

I believe this could be "The One" the ingredients as you say are there they just have to sync. Here's hoping :)

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Hello Ian and welcome back to the thread after such a long time - long time no see mate - how are you?

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9 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hello Ian and welcome back to the thread after such a long time - long time no see mate - how are you?

Ian? Not the notorious Ian of 'large teapot' fame surely... Maybe you meant Ian Beale from Eastenders. 😀

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5 hours ago, JeffC said:

Just seeing the names Piers Corbyn & James Madden and you know you're in the silly season. Imagine if one year these predictions actually come true, huge "I told you so" redtop headlines!!

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27 minutes ago, Alister said:

Just seeing the names Piers Corbyn & James Madden and you know you're in the silly season. Imagine if one year these predictions actually come true, huge "I told you so" redtop headlines!!

Indeed...It must make real forecasters (those who've spent years actually learning their stuff) weep to see shysters like those two make a mint out of it!🤢

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Weathertrending's early winter forecast

Mild and wettest towards the south west

Often dry but chilly in Scotland

Several snowfalls eleswhere

 

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No idea how accurate weather trending are, or have been in the past but that forecast is heavenly for my neck of the woods as Low pressure is indicated to the SW and HP to the North East!

Hopefully Glosea5 will be on the same page when it updates ❄️

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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Weathertrending's early winter forecast

Mild and wettest towards the south west

Often dry but chilly in Scotland

Several snowfalls eleswhere

 

They seem to be going with a battleground scenario ...which at this point seems as reasonable enough to me as anything else.

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

No idea how accurate weather trending are, or have been in the past but that forecast is heavenly for my neck of the woods as Low pressure is indicated to the SW and HP to the North East!

Hopefully Glosea5 will be on the same page when it updates ❄️

More accurate than James Madden!

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33 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

No idea how accurate weather trending are, or have been in the past but that forecast is heavenly for my neck of the woods as Low pressure is indicated to the SW and HP to the North East!

Hopefully Glosea5 will be on the same page when it updates ❄️

They are fairly new there were only set up after John Hammond left the beeb for full-time work 

They were caught out in the summer a few times incorrectly predicting breakdowns from the heat but they didn't shy away and admitted they got it wrong

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On 10/10/2018 at 12:33, Ed Stone said:

It's more the plethora of what I call 'Bill Foggets', who fill the media with their half-baked annual forecasts for Snowmageddon.

I think that’s a bit unfair on Bill. I think you should call it the Maddens. 😎

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

They are fairly new there were only set up after John Hammond left the beeb for full-time work 

They were caught out in the summer a few times incorrectly predicting breakdowns from the heat but they didn't shy away and admitted they got it wrong

Interesting about John Hammond. 

Wondered where he had got to. Can't see him setting up with a bunch of charlatans. I must check his website. Cheers for the info. 

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RJS

Great stats/analysis.....we’re in the ball park alright and your POV increases my confidence greatly....and my thoughts are well documented now.  

 

BFTP

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The accuweather winter forecast is hardly inspiring! 

C6E3C703-03B7-4140-A6E5-D1768AA1A5FD.thumb.jpeg.6db3c736ad5a8132a6e677b67c4ace6a.jpeg

Very much a +NAO forecast

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1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

The accuweather winter forecast is hardly inspiring! 

C6E3C703-03B7-4140-A6E5-D1768AA1A5FD.thumb.jpeg.6db3c736ad5a8132a6e677b67c4ace6a.jpeg

Very much a +NAO forecast

Spain being wet isn't necessarily indicative of a +NAO.

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1 minute ago, Roger J Smith said:

Is it my imagination, or does everyone in the U.K. now have a weather site? 

I can proudly report that its your imagination Roger, I definitely do not own one - although I am thinking of starting though eventually!  -  doing youtube videos.

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BTW - I like your forecast Roger - great work - just hope it comes off.

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The Accu-weather outlook is hard to assess because it conceals any reference to anomalies, other than suggesting a positive temperature outcome in Hungary (that would have to be the case because Hungary is not very often "warm" in winter). Cold shots in European Russia, they say ... well that has about a 98% chance of verifying at random. And frequently windy in western Europe could cover a variety of winter types, but I am thinking they are seeing similarities to 2013-14 after a spring and summer similar to 2013? (cold March, hot July). We all recall the non-stop parade of storms in the winter of 2013-14. 

I would say there is some similarity to my outlook but that I expect the cold shots to wander far and wide from Russia, as to wet France, I think that would verify well relative to normal and my scenario does not place the warm anomaly in southeast Europe so much as the eastern Med perhaps. The source region would be the north African flow but coming out more zonally. Noting an anomalously warm western Mediterranean, that might argue more for very wet in all of Spain and Italy with France perhaps a secondary wet zone along with those. 

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I have a weather site. However, no seasonal forecast this year due to my super-computer being down for repairs after a Windows 10 update started randomly deleting files.

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37 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Spain being wet isn't necessarily indicative of a +NAO.

Sorry France!!!!!!

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