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syed2878

Winter 2018/19

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Unbelievable stuff out there. Good Late April weather in Feb is great! 5 days of this already this month and more to come. Can’t remember anything as good as this in Feb before for longevity and sunshine

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40 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Snowyowl is referring to the start of the month rather the whole of February 1986. 

Believe it or not the first 3 days of this February were colder than those of February 1986 of which the chart above was from. Infact Manchester didn't record a sub zero minimum until the 6th of February 1986. 

Indeed 🙂 , although snowyowl referred to the chart in question as 'warm' but it was still pretty cold. Although the really cold uppers didn't start arriving until the 4th its still colder then the 2006 chart posted.

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2 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

What about last summer, perfect Synoptics but we couldn’t break warmth records which surprised me, so I wouldn’t worry too much for our small island.  I’d worry far more for large swathes of Canada and US with the amount of record snow and cold gone/going on.   

 

BFTP

I think last summer was dominated by high pressure and persistent warm and hot temperatures rather then intermittent periods of exceptional warmth. After May there wasn't much in the way of plumes from Spain to bring the record heat. Plumes have carried some very notable heat in recent years with June 2017 and July 2015 especially being notable examples. In 2015 we only needed 1 day of southerlies to bring in temperatures above 35C.

If we got a more prolonged plume in the summer months I'm pretty sure we would break the 2003 record with ease. In 2015 the forecasts were going for it at the start of July (I even recall NAVGEM going for 43C at one point) and in August last year as well... only for the Atlantic to keep the heat away.

As for the cold over the US it isn't exactly a representation of global temperatures is it?

image.thumb.png.51158f5e4b9cb1da5078b727c39b8f22.png

 

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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Nice thing about last summer was that the nights were nice and fresh. One day in July had  a max of 86.5F and the night time low was 60.8F. Or in modern talk 30.3C dropping to 16C. A good variation. Another day had a 17C range for the day.

Edited by The PIT

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May to mid July was pretty great with maxima and minima. Mid July to mid August was pretty horrid.

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2 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Indeed 🙂 , although snowyowl referred to the chart in question as 'warm' but it was still pretty cold. Although the really cold uppers didn't start arriving until the 4th its still colder then the 2006 chart posted.

NEly blast said it was warm,I didn`t,we had drizzle NNEly strong to gales early February 1986 to start with with then turned sleet grains then snow grains after a good 6 inch snowcover from the low the end of January.

Low ground was in green green grass land first fortnight of that cold spell.

The 2006 chart was at the end of February when the sun is stronger anyway to early February.

Edited by Snowyowl9

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14 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

NEly blast said it was warm,I didn`t,we had drizzle NNEly strong to gales early February 1986 to start with with then turned sleet grains then snow grains after a good 6 inch snowcover from the low the end of January.

Low ground was in green green grass land first fortnight of that cold spell.

The 2006 chart was at the end of February when the sun is stronger anyway to early February.

By the end of February 2006 there was a foot of snow widely across Northern and NE Scotland so cold air was not too far away to the North.

Edited by Norrance

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Oops your on about feb 2006 that was still very good here .

Up north it can certainly be expected This is 1986..

Very little snow on low ground in general in the south,snowfalls were of the snowgrain small flakes variety best for drifting snow as the top of the January snow had froze on top after the drizzle made an ice glaze froze on top making for a perfect never seen since on a scale like that snow flies off it so blizzards from the east of heavy snow grains fell making the drifting well you couldn`t see where you were going at times.

 

Edited by Snowyowl9

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5 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

What about last summer, perfect Synoptics but we couldn’t break warmth records which surprised me, so I wouldn’t worry too much for our small island.  I’d worry far more for large swathes of Canada and US with the amount of record snow and cold gone/going on.   

 

BFTP

It’s the duration of this warm spell that’s concerning.

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26 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

NEly blast said it was warm,I didn`t,we had drizzle NNEly strong to gales early February 1986 to start with with then turned sleet grains then snow grains after a good 6 inch snowcover from the low the end of January.

Low ground was in green green grass land first fortnight of that cold spell.

The 2006 chart was at the end of February when the sun is stronger anyway to early February.

Ah I may have got mixed up, apologies. March 2006 was actually fairly good here in Hull... I can recall quite a few good snow events in the first half of the month but it was really quite mild towards the end.

No sign of anything like that in the model output sadly...

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12 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Ah I may have got mixed up, apologies. March 2006 was actually fairly good here in Hull... I can recall quite a few good snow events in the first half of the month but it was really quite mild towards the end.

No sign of anything like that in the model output sadly...

No worries.

Coldest or best days from late February 2006 into march which really was a very good spell here better than late February 2005,That chart above I shown although temps did lift up too high by the afternoon I will say that.Last chart didn`t look very impressive but was a battleground snow event.

Rrea00120060224.gifRrea00120060228.gifRrea00120060302.gifRrea00120060312.gif

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24 minutes ago, Don said:

It’s the duration of this warm spell that’s concerning.

Very unusual but March 2012 showed if does happen, on and off for a month. Never known it this early though from experience, everything will be in bloom before the months out

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14 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

Very unusual but March 2012 showed if does happen, on and off for a month. Never known it this early though from experience, everything will be in bloom before the months out

I recall February 1998, Valentine's Day was ridiculous. Sunny and felt warm in sun. Also had a Saharan dust fall 

 

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Yep not as warm as mid February 1998 here never felt nothing like it before unless you count 1990 less warm but still felt warm 13c here,solar maximum year.

Rrea00119900223.gif

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Looking at the charts Feb 98 was better for the south with it windier and cloudier for the north?

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9 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

Looking at the charts Feb 98 was better for the south with it windier and cloudier for the north?

Feb '98 charts look better, more of a SW wind, this year is more se'ly, meaning cold starts

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16 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Very mild and sunny wins the poll

The average public are really so uninteresting when it comes to interesting weather.

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Subject to confirmation Wales has had its warmest February day on record

 

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The easterly of late February 2006 was indeed somewhat tame.  I was at university in Leeds that year, where there had been several accumulations of snow in the February 2005 easterly, albeit with daytime thaws.  The February 2006 easterly gave a few snow showers at times and a frontal rain/sleet event, but nothing accumulated on the ground.  However, as quite often happens in that type of setup, the Atlantic side of the Arctic cooled down to near-normal and the Scandinavian blocking high retrogressed to Greenland opening the back door for a potent northerly, which set in on 27 February and persisted until 6 March, and it was this northerly that brought fairly widespread snow cover at times plus a big dumping for north-east Scotland.

Late February 2006 was more of a letdown for snow lovers because the airmass source was easterly but eastern Europe wasn't cold enough.  In early February 1986 we were pulling up relatively mild air masses from the south-east, before an easterly source developed towards the end of the first week and gave mostly sub-zero temperatures for the rest of that month.

As for this spell, I don't think the duration of warmth is all that unusual, as it was similarly exceptionally warm in February 1998.  I think what's primarily unusual about this spell is how it has widely been sunny as well as mild, with markedly high diurnal ranges as a result (February '98 was also notably sunny in some areas, but it was very much a NW-SE split month).  But it does seem that it doesn't take as much as it used to to get exceptionally high temperatures, which is most likely a result of the elevated global temperatures making the dice more strongly loaded in favour of warmth.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers

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shows how sheet UK winters have become when the Sept 2018 average here was colder than any of the 3 winter months in the UK

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winter 2018 2019 will be known for being one long autumn

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Wales and Scotland have broken their February heat records in recent days

Today could see the all time UK record of 19.7c going

Possibly the 1st 20c winter day as well

Edited by Summer Sun

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