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Winter 2018/19


syed2878

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
7 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Thanks for that, Fred...Here's hoping!

Cheers Pete, I honestly believe this minima is the precipice .....so here we go

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Oh my, the winter madness begins again 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Already seeing a gulf of Alaska low setting up on the extended ens with a resultant  w USA upper ridge and downstream troughs for e USA and Scandinavia/Europe 

sometimes, October patterns portent what lies ahead ........ and sometimes they don’t !!

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
13 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Already seeing a gulf of Alaska low setting up on the extended ens with a resultant  w USA upper ridge and downstream troughs for e USA and Scandinavia/Europe 

sometimes, October patterns portent what lies ahead ........ and sometimes they don’t !!

Anything you're able to post blue? 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

I have held back but I like the idea.  Who remembers the Winter of Discontent ....78/79.....Maybe this will be ‘The Denier Winter’  (allegedly can never happen again)...It is on the table at this early stage....imo.  I think there could be a few surprises.  

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm, sunny summers
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I have held back but I like the idea.  Who remembers the Winter of Discontent ....78/79.....Maybe this will be ‘The Denier Winter’  (allegedly can never happen again)...It is on the table at this early stage....imo.  I think there could be a few surprises.  

 

BFTP

Yep, I've been having that year on my mind throughout my Winter updates that I began in the Summer. 1978 was a year that I thought of and its hurricane season was very similar. It was unusually quiet before September but then quickly ramped up to an average season overall than inactive like it was looking such. 2018 has been similar if a little more active I think. 

God love us if 1978-79 were to come though because these forums would be filled with lots of disappointment from a month like December 1978 then minds are boggled once the New Year comes as a blizzard strikes showing patience is a virtue with our Winters 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

I think for now the most I am prepared to say about the long term (December onwards) is that the signal for a winter with a strong azores high presence looks rather weaker than most recent years. Nino wont help the azores high for sure, and the ECM probability forecast for sea level pressure suggests a year when we wont be plagued by high pressure bumping up from the SW. This is a long way away from suggesting an automatic high lat block and cold continental air source BUT it is a start.

ps2png-gorax-green-004-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-R26mkY.thumb.png.b53dd72fbc8bd017c76d8f7313c3e416.png

Edited by Catacol
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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Any Express weather article should go in the make us laugh thread  

Yeah, Nathan Rao perpetuates a load of claptrap even more than strictly come dancing! 

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Dpk-EJnW0AcXL4p.jpg

Liking that Atlantic pressure anomaly.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The latest update from gavsweathervids

Text Version

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2018-19-weather-forecast.php

Quote

Combining all Decembers we see a signal for a mid-Atlantic ridge and low pressure just to our east. There is no real northern blocking signal so while these Decembers could produce cold snaps from the north overall they wouldn't be particularly cold December's.

Combining all Januaries we can see an increased blocking signal over the Arctic with a trough of low pressure centered over the UK and western Europe. These Januaries could be have some cold potential due to the blocking signal but they would generally be mild, wet, unsettled months.

The combined February and March signal is for high pressure to over and to the east and south of the UK. This would bring early spring-like conditions with lots of dry and mild weather expected as winds would be from a southerly direction.

The Winters themselves show a trough of blow average heights over the UK and western Europe and so a relatively mild and unsettled Winter pattern is most likely following these September pattern matches - With the caveat that September 1878 - The best match to September 2018 - was followed by a severe Winter.

2

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 hours ago, Seasonality said:

Liking that Atlantic pressure anomaly.

But the lack of low height anomaly to our south could mean we are beyond the end of the cold line - potential lack of catalyst to drive CAA this far 

three month mean charts could hide a multitude of stuff I guess 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
28 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

But the lack of low height anomaly to our south could mean we are beyond the end of the cold line - potential lack of catalyst to drive CAA this far 

three month mean charts could hide a multitude of stuff I guess 

I was thinking the same. 

The September update was better as the monthly breakdowns showed troughing well into Europe. After the other year, I'm always dubious when we see no troughing to the S/SE, even if the rest of the anomaly looks great. 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Those Express sources make my winter outlook sound like a warminista meltdown alert by comparison, but have to comment that their first round of snow-madness seems like a false start, the outbreak they seem to be noting (29-30 Oct) is headed more for central Europe than Britain, and it may bring an early taste of winter there, as depicted on GFS this morning (here) I don't see very much impact away from higher parts of Scotland. More promising is the general retrograde trend of high pressure opening up larger segments of the Atlantic to northeast winds and blocking at this early stage. 

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3 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Those Express sources make my winter outlook sound like a warminista meltdown alert by comparison, but have to comment that their first round of snow-madness seems like a false start, the outbreak they seem to be noting (29-30 Oct) is headed more for central Europe than Britain, and it may bring an early taste of winter there, as depicted on GFS this morning (here) I don't see very much impact away from higher parts of Scotland. More promising is the general retrograde trend of high pressure opening up larger segments of the Atlantic to northeast winds and blocking at this early stage. 

Do you think the retrogression of the high is more of a preface of things to come? 

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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

Its going to be nothing like the record breaking end of October 2008,all I can see is a settled rest of the month a few ground frosts.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
6 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Sounds like a winter of discontent to me

 

BFTP

Aye, interesting winter it may be, but the day after tomorrow scenario? Doubtful....if it does go like that, can I nominate people to be aboard the helicopters?!

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm, sunny summers
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
3 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Its going to be nothing like the record breaking end of October 2008,all I can see is a settled rest of the month a few ground frosts.

 

Which I'll 100% take after the rubbish I've endured a lot of the recent years especially the stupidly warm Halloweens.

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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

Speaking of new years eve 1978 which I do remember that great blizzard the coldest new years eve in living memory.

The next coldest new years eve is belive it or not 2008,its the coldest one I`ve recorded at -3c max as 1995 it got less cold then,previous day was bitter.

Edited by Snowyowl9
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