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Latest ec seasonal shows the mean winter storm track a bit far north to provide a wintry nirvana - Scotland could do well from this and I believe that each month sees the blocking to the north pushing the jet a little further south ....... still in the game based on this - good signs to our se but not necessarily to our ssw 

5216FC24-CD3E-438A-A811-1259AF862CA7.thumb.jpeg.5faf502c0076d21759fa8b05e99f61bb.jpeg 

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On 01/12/2018 at 21:05, Don said:

Does anyone know what happened to Ian Pennells?  I have not seen any forecast from him since the spring and I did rate him.

He wrote the netwesther winter forecast before ? .Seems to have disappeared of the face of the earth.Trouble with internet ,how many people do you know personally.Maybe he passed away for all we know😔

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15 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

He wrote the netwesther winter forecast before ? .Seems to have disappeared of the face of the earth.Trouble with internet ,how many people do you know personally.Maybe he passed away for all we know😔

blimey sleety - killing him off is a bit of a stretch !

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28 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

blimey sleety - killing him off is a bit of a stretch !

Yes - he wasn't old, 40's maybe early 50's...I liked his forecasts without having that cold bias.

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1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Latest ec seasonal shows the mean winter storm track a bit far north to provide a wintry nirvana - Scotland could do well from this and I believe that each month sees the blocking to the north pushing the jet a little further south ....... still in the game based on this - good signs to our se but not necessarily to our ssw 

5216FC24-CD3E-438A-A811-1259AF862CA7.thumb.jpeg.5faf502c0076d21759fa8b05e99f61bb.jpeg 

Have to say that looks remarkably like the German global model was forecasting for this winter...and out of all the seasonal models was one of the least favourable for cold, hope it just doesn't come to fruition.

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17 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Yes - he wasn't old, 40's maybe early 50's...I liked his forecasts without having that cold bias.

why would he just disappear then,considering he used to write the winter forecast for netwesther in the past.

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1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

why would he just disappear then,considering he used to write the winter forecast for netwesther in the past.

Netweather is not the only weather site you know.

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1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Latest ec seasonal shows the mean winter storm track a bit far north to provide a wintry nirvana - Scotland could do well from this and I believe that each month sees the blocking to the north pushing the jet a little further south ....... still in the game based on this - good signs to our se but not necessarily to our ssw 

5216FC24-CD3E-438A-A811-1259AF862CA7.thumb.jpeg.5faf502c0076d21759fa8b05e99f61bb.jpeg 

That is pretty dire, screams of Northerly toppler type stuff as opposed to Easterlies.

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2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

why would he just disappear then,considering he used to write the winter forecast for netwesther in the past.

I don't think he's ever written the Netweather winter forecast as far as I know but did his own personal LRF's (maybe somebody can enlighten me)...people come and go and have a life away from a computer. 🙂

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This El Nino is on life support, it is barely able to get mild air to the west coast of North America, stronger ones just blast the warmth halfway to Hudson Bay. 

Despite the windy frontal event approaching, the charts look rather devoid of energy in general, a lot of stale old arctic air sitting around all over the place. This reminds me a bit of Dec 1986, a month when if I recall correctly the weather in eastern North America went just about totally dormant for a long period of time, unusual where I was living then to have days and days of calm weather and no precip in December. Anyway, the other similarity would be Dec 86 was relatively mild, I see Blast lurking, so he's the authority on Jan 1987. 🙂

 

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On 03/12/2018 at 20:14, Nizzer said:

Gonna post in here as to not derail the MOD thread. But I'm still not convinced about the cold spell showing for next week. Get these cold charts down to 72/96hrs and I'll star to get excited.

🙄

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10 hours ago, Nizzer said:

🙄

The charts aren't anywhere near 96hrs yet, so bit early with your smugness lol 

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11 minutes ago, Rambo said:

The charts aren't anywhere near 96hrs yet, so bit early with your smugness lol 

Since this cold spell was picked up last week, it was scheduled for this weekend, which if I do my maths correctly, is well within 72 hours. No smugness, just experience that tells me that anything after 144hrs (sometimes sooner) is mostly a pipe dream.

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1 hour ago, Nizzer said:

Since this cold spell was picked up last week, it was scheduled for this weekend, which if I do my maths correctly, is well within 72 hours. No smugness, just experience that tells me that anything after 144hrs (sometimes sooner) is mostly a pipe dream.

Always been next week for the cold! 

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16 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

This El Nino is on life support, it is barely able to get mild air to the west coast of North America, stronger ones just blast the warmth halfway to Hudson Bay. 

Despite the windy frontal event approaching, the charts look rather devoid of energy in general, a lot of stale old arctic air sitting around all over the place. This reminds me a bit of Dec 1986, a month when if I recall correctly the weather in eastern North America went just about totally dormant for a long period of time, unusual where I was living then to have days and days of calm weather and no precip in December. Anyway, the other similarity would be Dec 86 was relatively mild, I see Blast lurking, so he's the authority on Jan 1987. 🙂

 

To say the El Nino is on life support is wrong it's still of moderate strength in the equatorial Pacific.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml

 

It's impact just hasn't filtered through to other areas yet because it formed a bit later. It's effects will be particularly felt later on in the winter.  It is then forecast to strengthen through 2019 so its not on life support.

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Not trying to put downer on this winter I love snow and cold weather but the Meto keep putting back the cold it was ment to be end of nov early dec then got pushed back to mid dec now that’s out the window can’t see this changeing unless we have a ssw or we will probably just keep carrying with this boring same old pattern 😔

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Since when do we get really cold weather in DEC ,we don’t often.Check the archives.Amazing how people bang on about early winter cold ,when we rarely ever get it in the first place !

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2 hours ago, Rambo said:

Always been next week for the cold! 

Read from the above post onward, you will see that the models were showing the cold to start from Sunday/Monday. As we got closer to the start time of the cold spell, 'this weekend', it has been watered down. That's why I said "Get these cold charts down to 72/96hrs and I'll star to get excited." Which never happened!

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21 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Since when do we get really cold weather in DEC ,we don’t often.Check the archives.Amazing how people bang on about early winter cold ,when we rarely ever get it in the first place !

Not very often, Sleety... But we sure remember it when we do!😀

Edited by Ed Stone

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19 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Since when do we get really cold weather in DEC ,we don’t often.Check the archives.Amazing how people bang on about early winter cold ,when we rarely ever get it in the first place !

Well over the last decade we've probably had cold and snow in December as much as January - 2009 (2 snowy episodes), 2010 and even last year provided small events around the country. January over the last 10 years has been relatively been poor, 2010 and 2013 standout but not much else.

In days gone by yes if a cold winter was to unfold this generally happened after Xmas - in my lifetime largely 1981/82 and 2010/11 the exceptions

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There's always one, Froze!😁

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21 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

This winter is turning into a dog's dinner

A Winalot Winter awaits?

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