Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Sign in to follow this  
The PIT

Hurricane Leslie

Recommended Posts

Increasing confidence that it w ill track back across the Atlantic. A long lasting fish spinner this one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well tongight GFS ecm all bend it back west and quickly kill it. However at T72 we do have two Ex Hurricanes on the charts. How often does that happen?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bit of a ragged eye but there is still ongoing convection development around the eye. It appears to have pulled down some drier air so it might be a bit of a hybrid at the moment.

Those people in Madeira or the Canary Islands or those traveling to those destinations should keep an eye on the forecasts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Leslie continues to puzzle with her track. The 0z ECM and Aprege take her towards Portugal while the gfs continues to show impacts for the Canaries and then move her westwards again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 6z ICON also joins the ECM with a track through southern Portugal and into Spain. The 0z had a path similar to the UKMO

Edited by karyo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still quite a spread in GEFS for Hurricane Leslie track, some loop round and back west to brush Canaries as per NHC official track, while some, like 00z GFS operational track across Portugal and Spain

13L_gefs_latest.thumb.png.95d47389a43c60b2d0d9ad3d7b3def16.pngleslie.thumb.png.994c6275781a376b3b7a172ab5959feb.png

 

00z GFS operational

gfsgif.thumb.gif.944ffce750cf050c7dbd3c093112928d.gif

Interestingly remnant low of ex-Michael approaches Iberia early next week

14L_gefs_latest.thumb.png.701983bbaf6107631b4cf055ad847ed6.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If leslie does dive south then what is being shown of Michaels track on the models, I expect it may be quite different

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I thought she needed a few more days yet to get the record. Yup Leslie is well short at the moment on this record.

If it remains on track and the track has varied a lot it will be a wet day in Spain and Portugal.

Edited by The PIT

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After Leslie it looks like they will get the remains of Micheal soon after as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, The PIT said:

I thought she needed a few more days yet to get the record. Yup Leslie is well short at the moment on this record.

If it remains on track and the track has varied a lot it will be a wet day in Spain and Portugal.

The risk of flash floods must be very high for those areas that are not used to seeing much rain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, StormyWeather28 said:

024015_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Madness! That's Lisbon in the firing line according to my dodgy eyes anyway. 

The NHC has shifted the path a bit further north than yesterday. Still quite a bit of disagreement in the models.. The UKMO takes her to northwest Iberia while the GFS is the most southerly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Estofex have issued a level 3 for Portugal for Leslie.

http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2018101406_201810122345_3_stormforecast.xml

A level 3 was issued for parts of Portugal surrounded by a level 2 covering also parts of Spain mainly for severe to damaging wind gusts and to a lesser extent for (strong) tornados and excessive precipitation.
 

2018101406_201810122345_3_stormforecast.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well after being mostly a fish spinner looks like shes going out with a bang. Hold onto your hats folks down there

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In Fuerteventura at the mo. Been Sunny and very warm. Wind picked up this afternoon (nothing unusual for here). Forecast of showers tomorrow so guess we'll be getting tailend of Leslie.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Goodbye Leslie, we will miss you !

If she hadn't gone Extratropical on September 25th for a couple of days this would be discussion number 78


000
WTNT43 KNHC 132036
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Discussion Number  70
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
500 PM AST Sat Oct 13 2018

After a total of 70 advisories, long-lived Leslie has become
post-tropical just west of the coast of Portugal, finally succumbing
to the combination of cool waters, strong vertical wind shear, and
interaction with an approaching cold front. The air mass ahead of
the cyclone has moistened up in the low levels with Faro, Portugal,
reporting a dewpoint of 70F/21C, but the dewpoints across central
and northern Portugal ahead of Leslie are only in the low-60F range,
which is not indicative of a tropical air mass. Thus, the cyclone is
now a powerful post-tropical low pressure system that even has a
partial eye noted in the most recent 2000Z Portuguese composite
radar imagery. After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, and
Leslie is forecast to degenerate into a broad low pressure area over
or just north of Spain by late Sunday.

Leslie is moving quickly toward the northeast or 050/30 kt.
Post-tropical Cyclone Leslie should continue in a fast northeastward
direction for the next 12-18 hours, making landfall near or just
south of Porto, Portugal by 14/0000Z. This forecast motion is
consistent with the previous advisory and the latest track model
guidance.

The meteorological services of Portugal and Spain are handling
hazards information for their respective countries via local weather
products. This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory
on this system.


Key Messages:

1. Leslie is expected to bring near hurricane-force winds to
portions of Portugal later tonight as a powerful post-tropical
cyclone.  Gale-force winds are also likely to affect portions of
northwestern and northern Spain tonight and Sunday.

2. Leslie is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (1
to 3 inches) with isolated amounts as high as 125 mm (5 inches)
across portions of Portugal and Spain, which could cause flash
flooding.

3. For more information on Leslie, interests in Portugal should
refer to products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and
Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt.  Interests in Spain should refer to
products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 40.5N   9.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  14/0600Z 43.0N   4.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL INLAND
 24H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After weeks on end of drifting around the Atlantic tropics, the resilient ex hurricane/ tropical cyclone finally made landfall in Portugal yesterday evening. Amazing to watch Leslie over the past few weeks and ending its life in a very rare synoptic circumstances.  Some wind gusts of 100km were reported for a time on exposed coastlines. Just another eventful 2018 weather story so far!

C

44055694_2361319120757842_2378920353041743872_n.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Shame I wanted her to do a few more circles of the Atlantic to claim the record of longest lasting storm. Mostly totally under the radar during her life finally deciding to get some media attention. One of the more interesting hurricanes of the year.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fascinating storm: been following it for a couple of weeks and thought it was going to loop-da-loop again but this time it was not to be. Hints of Vince from 2005 too at the end...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×