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JeffC

How will Solar Minimum affect weather and climate Take 2?

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Interesting article highlighting about the lagged effects of solar minimum. Maybe 2019/20 could be the start of a colder string of winters.

http://www.bitsofscience.org/europe-can-expect-frosty-winters-as-solar-activity-drops-to-minimum-7878/

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If anything this year should have shown folk that we must now expect not only 'Arctic Plunges' but also traffic in the opposite direction ( bringing us 70f in Feb!!!) ?

How this 'freeing up' of the atmosphere impacts the 'normal' impacts of low solar over winter? Hell knows!!!

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Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

If anything this year should have shown folk that we must now expect not only 'Arctic Plunges' but also traffic in the opposite direction ( bringing us 70f in Feb!!!) ?

If you've read any of the studies in Maunder conditions, it should not be unexpected. The monastic winemakers' accounts of the period describe early, unseasonal warmth, followed by late spring chills. Summers saw big swings from extreme heat to cold air spells: the outcome of which was the dreaded enemy of viticulturists .... frequent large and damaging hail.

 

Edited by Gael_Force

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1 hour ago, Gael_Force said:

If you've read any of the studies in Maunder conditions, it should not be unexpected. The monastic winemakers' accounts of the period describe early, unseasonal warmth, followed by late spring chills. Summers saw big swings from extreme heat to cold air spells: the outcome of which was the dreaded enemy of viticulturists .... frequent large and damaging hail.

 

These aren't Maunder conditions.

But, which of the studies do you suggest I read?

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Devonian said:

These aren't Maunder conditions.

But, which of the studies do you suggest I read?

Maybe the loss of ice is adding to the effect ??

As for studies, all the links I read were on here, in the original thread. Has it gone along with so much else that was purged because of bickering.

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298052/document

Look at the chart for August 1771 .... something similar to what is modelled for following days.

Edited by Gael_Force

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Posted (edited)

To me, this summer and its striking -AO/NAO signature tells us all what we need to know about solar effects on the weather. As far as I can tell, not one long range model picked up the extent of it. 

The synoptic has encouraged a striking N Atlantic tripole to develop, which to me suggests that the initial solar induced blocking episode can potentially act to promote a positive feedback mechanism which can then transcend seasons.

This winter will be a true test for me. Can we negate the PDO?

Interesting times for sure.

Edited by CreweCold

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46 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

To me, this summer and its striking -AO/NAO signature tells us all what we need to know about solar effects on the weather. As far as I can tell, not one long range model picked up the extent of it. 

The synoptic has encouraged a striking N Atlantic tripole to develop, which to me suggests that the initial solar induced blocking episode can potentially act to promote a positive feedback mechanism which can then transcend seasons.

This winter will be a true test for me. Can we negate the PDO?

Interesting times for sure.

Perhaps... although 2012 also saw a good tripole during a summer in which arctic sea ice extent took a big hit.

Regardless, I'm watching that tripole closely as it may certainly help things later. Can the tripole keep going though or will it suddenly vanish come the arrival of winter?

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55 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Perhaps... although 2012 also saw a good tripole during a summer in which arctic sea ice extent took a big hit.

Regardless, I'm watching that tripole closely as it may certainly help things later. Can the tripole keep going though or will it suddenly vanish come the arrival of winter?

Either way, I think we need to treat seasonal modelling with even more caution than usual. I'm not sure how much use they will be this coming winter, given that they weren't that great overall this summer (which tends to be an easier season to model).

I have a feeling that if winter actually pays us a visit this year, it'll start early.

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58 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Can the tripole keep going though or will it suddenly vanish come the arrival of winter?

Considering the UKMO used the tripole (or otherwise) signature from May SST anomalies as one of their guides to following winter NAO, does it matter if it vanishes? A few autumn storms will mix out current SST pattern which has only been brought about by persistent heights over NE Canada and Greenland.

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Either way, I think we need to treat seasonal modelling with even more caution than usual. I'm not sure how much use they will be this coming winter, given that they weren't that great overall this summer (which tends to be an easier season to model).

I have a feeling that if winter actually pays us a visit this year, it'll start early.

It'll be a tough one, Crewe...Even supposing we do get some real winter weather, this time round, the boffins'll need to spend some considerable time ascertaining just what's caused what...? 

It'll be interesting nonetheless!:oldgrin:

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Just now, Ed Stone said:

It'll be a tough one, Crewe...Even supposing we do get some real winter weather, this time round, the boffins'll need to spend some considerable time ascertaining just what's caused what...? 

It'll be interesting nonetheless!:oldgrin:

Absolutely.

To my eyes, this summer has the hallmarks of an extended solar min summer but also that of a record low sea ice summer. I'm more inclined to lean towards the solar aspect though for the pure reason that the pattern began to establish before sea ice got so low. 

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7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Absolutely.

To my eyes, this summer has the hallmarks of an extended solar min summer but also that of a record low sea ice summer. I'm more inclined to lean towards the solar aspect though for the pure reason that the pattern began to establish before sea ice got so low. 

You won't be surprised to know that I'm on the other side of the fence?:oldgrin:

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

You won't be surprised to know that I'm on the other side of the fence?:oldgrin:

Well the truth is likely to be a mix of both factors. 

I think, given what we've seen over the last decade+ would lend credence to perhaps the sea ice situation exacerbating the effects of the solar situation. It's quite striking to see the evident correlation (since around 2007) between solar activity and the NAO and observed weather here in the UK. We had a notable run of -NAO months around the last minimum (and for a time after) before an uptick in +NAO months with solar max and just after. It appears that there is some form of lag involved but the pattern has very definitely been there over the past two cycles.

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10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

You won't be surprised to know that I'm on the other side of the fence?:oldgrin:

No - Definitely not!!

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My main concern for winter is the +PDO with little sign of it changing anytime soon.  I believe this was  negative during the 2008-2013 period?

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2 minutes ago, Don said:

My main concern for winter is the +PDO with little sign of it changing anytime soon.  I believe this was  negative during the 2008-2013 period?

It won't make things easy. I would imagine if the PDO is to battle with other forcings though, there is the potential for spectacular snowfalls across the UK. Something like the late 70s winters come to my mind. 

Anyone have the list of years that featured +ve PDO and decent UK winters at hand?

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2 minutes ago, Don said:

My main concern for winter is the +PDO with little sign of it changing anytime soon.  I believe this was  negative during the 2008-2013 period?

Does seem to correlate with a strong Atlantic jet with lows just exploding of the Eastern seaboard, a great anomaly though being Jan 1987 i think, if i remember rightly when analoguing last year.

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

It won't make things easy. I would imagine if the PDO is to battle with other forcings though, there is the potential for spectacular snowfalls across the UK. Something like the late 70s winters come to my mind. 

Anyone have the list of years that featured +ve PDO and decent UK winters at hand?

Strong +ve 86/87, weakly +ve 95/96 and 09/10

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Does seem to correlate with a strong Atlantic jet with lows just exploding of the Eastern seaboard, a great anomaly though being Jan 1987 i think, if i remember rightly when analoguing last year.

I believe this was partly responsible for the vile winter of 2013/14 where many suffered flooding, while America was plunged into the freezer.  Frigid air spilled into the Atlantic, blowing up the jet stream which blew us away!  I believe a +PDO has been one of the factors of the generally mild winters since 2013.  I think the PDO temporarily went negative during 2017 and we had a colder winter 2017/18.  Perhaps a trip to North America this year?  That said, a late 70’s winter would be rather good.  Does anyone know the state of the PDO then?

Edited by Don

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Don said:

I believe this was partly responsible for the vile winter of 2013/14 where many suffered flooding, while America was plunged into the freezer.  Frigid air spilled into the Atlantic, blowing up the jet stream which blew us away!  Perhaps a trip to North America this year?

A cold plunge in America is not a huge problem in itself, in fact you want a buckled jet, its just where it is, if its too close to the sea, then it will give you a strong Jet, what you want is really amplified upstream inland running systems very slow moving carving a strong ridge ahead of it and try and get it up into Greenland, of course the Strat playing ball will give you a better chance for that further into the season.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Either way, I think we need to treat seasonal modelling with even more caution than usual. I'm not sure how much use they will be this coming winter, given that they weren't that great overall this summer (which tends to be an easier season to model).

I have a feeling that if winter actually pays us a visit this year, it'll start early.

At this early point I'd go for a backloaded winter if a La Nina develops. The signals of early winter cold from a purely statistical point of view are warm SSTs towards Greenland and low pressure around the Darwin / Indonesia area (something of a La Nina signature).

1 hour ago, Gael_Force said:

Considering the UKMO used the tripole (or otherwise) signature from May SST anomalies as one of their guides to following winter NAO, does it matter if it vanishes? A few autumn storms will mix out current SST pattern which has only been brought about by persistent heights over NE Canada and Greenland.

I think it does as cold SSTs around the area near Iceland usually occur when there are more cold air outbreaks from NE Canada filtering out into the NW North Atlantic but...

43 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

A cold plunge in America is not a huge problem in itself, in fact you want a buckled jet, its just where it is, if its too close to the sea, then it will give you a strong Jet, what you want is really amplified upstream inland running systems very slow moving carving a strong ridge ahead of it and try and get it up into Greenland, of course the Strat playing ball will give you a better chance for that further into the season.

 cold air outbreaks across the other side of the pond are not the be all end all. It just depends on where the cold air outbreaks filter down to. In 2013/14 the cold air outbreaks were focused on more NE USA and NE Canada.

Contrast that to 2010 were there was often record cold over the SE USA from the NW during the winter months yet Newfoundland saw record breaking high temperatures, the jet coming out of the US was shunted well to the south.

Just my thoughts anyhow....

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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I would go for a back loaded winter as well but for different reasons, a transition to and e-qbo being one of them, 2010-11 was a La lina (moderate), you can't get more front loaded than that.

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I would go for a back loaded winter as well but for different reasons, a transition to and e-qbo being one of them, 2010-11 was a La lina (moderate), you can't get more front loaded than that.

I watched an Autumn analogue wotsit, just the other day, that was based on the latest ENSO ensemble forecast... and just about every conceivable Autumnal weather-pattern was represented; and I did the very same thing this time last year. The rest is history!:oldgrin:

IMO, there are simply so many things we are yet to fully understand (let alone predict?) that, basing a seasonal forecast on any one teleconnection is bound to fail?

I also believe that the chaotic behaviour of multiply-iterated non-linear differential equations (NWPMs?) puts a theoretical limit on the accuracy of NWPM forecasts...?

Does that mean we should all give up? No, of course it doesn't!:oldgood:

 

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On 06/08/2019 at 21:28, Ed Stone said:

I watched an Autumn analogue wotsit, just the other day, that was based on the latest ENSO ensemble forecast... and just about every conceivable Autumnal weather-pattern was represented; and I did the very same thing this time last year. The rest is history!:oldgrin:

IMO, there are simply so many things we are yet to fully understand (let alone predict?) that, basing a seasonal forecast on any one teleconnection is bound to fail?

I also believe that the chaotic behaviour of multiply-iterated non-linear differential equations (NWPMs?) puts a theoretical limit on the accuracy of NWPM forecasts...?

Does that mean we should all give up? No, of course it doesn't!:oldgood:

 

Indeed, this is always going to be a problem. My personal opinion is that if we have very little still to gain if we continue down the brute-force DE route (Lyapunov exponents will continue to screw us over, no matter how precise our initial conditions are). A different (or perhaps combined) approach involving machine learning is an alternative we should explore, such that the computers gain some kind of "intuition" for how teleconnections interact with each other and affect local weather further down the line (much like how some of the knowledgeable folk on here are able to give a pretty good stab at a Summer or Winter forecast, only with much more "thinking" power). I suspect this approach is already being dabbled with.

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Studies show that low geomagnetic activity coincides with negative NAO and a warmer arctic via increasing blockage and interconnection between the troposphere and the stratosphere. It is striking that after the solar wind has been unusually weak in 2019, the blocking frequency on the Atlantic side of Greenland increased, leading to the reverse ocean circulation of recent years, while tropospheric blocking has continued for months coinciding with negative NAO. Exciting times, because then we may very well have an interesting winter ahead in Europe.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11200-014-0508-z?fbclid=IwAR3quJ2Ai6OAsQPTSh-Q0MQKdNTrqDBUOtxzfH_KjU9JmITYplmnUs2vTaI

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_HGT_ANOM_ALL_NH_2019.png

 

 

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