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October 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest


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Looking at the queries above - Every point deduction in the overall comp is pretty much the final points deduction after adjustments, this is by accident rather than by design. However this remains a

Confirmed as 10.6C: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat 0.1C below the 1981-2010 average and the coolest October since 2012.

Here's the forecast based on the 12z GFS Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 12.4C to the 22nd... +1.2 (9.3: -0.6) 12.3C to the 23rd... +1.2 (

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12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Well my my my, I'm thinking the final 5 days of October could have a mean of 5C... which could mean a drop of a whole 1C for the overall monthly mean. Sub 11C now very much in play. 

Was it only me then that could see a northerly flow last week October, posted my thoughts on the 7th. An interesting year full of extremes....

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2 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

My 10.8 and 75mm could be a win double, first ever?

I am hanging in there with 10.6 and 75....

Does anyone else have difficulty remembering what they entered a month ago?

I always have to look back about now  to see how I am doing...

MIA

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54 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

I am hanging in there with 10.6 and 75....

Does anyone else have difficulty remembering what they entered a month ago?

I always have to look back about now  to see how I am doing...

MIA

No not just you! I have to write it down on my calendar after a long time having to look back !

I went 10.2 & 105 mm. No idea where I am ppn wise but temp I've undershot yet again!

 

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12.5 to the 21st

1.3 above the 61 to 90 average
1.2 above the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th & 13th

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Here's the forecast based on the 12z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

12.4C to the 22nd... +1.2 (9.3: -0.6)
12.3C to the 23rd... +1.2 (10.8: +1.2)
12.3C to the 24th... +1.3 (12.4: +3.0)
12.2C to the 25th... +1.2 (9.1: -0.3)
12.0C to the 26th... +1.1 (7.6: -2.0)
11.7C to the 27th... +0.8 (3.6: -6.2)
11.5C to the 28th... +0.6 (5.2: -4.6)
11.2C to the 29th... +0.4 (3.1: -5.8)
11.0C to the 30th... +0.2 (4.9: -4.3)
10.8C to the 31st... +0.1 (6.5: -2.8)

The first cool/cold spell of the Autumn now just coming into the reliable time frame, and looks set to bring the CET crashing back to average by months end. No daily records appear under threat currently, so little more than a regular late October cold spell.

Oct21.thumb.JPG.bdc55ad11aeac632b42e9925fa7150b8.JPG   Oct21MM.thumb.JPG.a9bfd64f0c1e0022a50fd8faa08cc775.JPG

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12.4 to the 22nd

1.2 above the 61 to 90 average
1.2 above the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th & 13th

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12.3 to the 23rd

1.2 above the 61 to 90 average
1.2 above the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th & 13th

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58 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

12.3 to the 23rd

1.2 above the 61 to 90 average
1.2 above the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th & 13th

Without a back-down from the models on the cold snap, a final corrected value of between 10.5C and 11C seems very likely to me.

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A colder than average end now odds on, not exceptionally cold, but significantly below average period ahead 26th -31st October.

For comparison if anyone has the figures would be good to compare with recent years, given we have had a number of very mild such periods, exceptionally so in recent years, so it will make a change. 2008 saw the last notably cold end to October. 2009, 2010 and 2012 brought some chilly weather. The majority though since 2003 have been mild or very mild ends. A number of exceptionally mild Halloweens in recent years.

mmm 2008, 2009, 2010 an 2012 all followed by cold winters..

Edited by damianslaw
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Well these are the mean daily CET temperatures for the past ten years during the interval from 26 to 31 October ... I reported earlier in the thread on the coldest such intervals over all data since 1772, and 2008 was tied 22nd coldest, and the coldest in recent times.

YEAR ____26 __27 __28 __29 __30 __31 ___ mean

2008 ____10.2_ 6.5 _ 3.5 _ 1.6 _ 4.0 _ 4.2 ___ 5.0

2009 ____12.6_13.2_14.2_12.4_13.0_14.2 __ 13.3

2010 _____7.4_11.4_11.9_ 12.6_10.3_ 9.7___10.6

2011 _____8.7_ 9.5 _ 9.1 _10.4_13.2_14.3 __ 10.9

2012 _____6.6 _4.2 _5.4 _ 8.8 _ 6.6 _ 8.1 ____6.6

2013 ____14.3_11.9_10.6_ 9.1_ 8.4 _ 9.9 ___ 10.7

2014 ____12.3_14.3_15.0_10.7_12.4_16.9 __ 13.6

2015 ____ 9.7_12.6_12.1_11.6_12.6_13.2 __ 12.0

2016 ____11.0_11.5_12.4_12.9_11.3_12.2 __ 11.9

2017 ____10.3_ 9.7 _ 9.9 _10.8_ 6.0_ 7.9 ___ 9.1

______________________________________________________

The number of mild 31st of Octobers is astounding really. The old record was 14.5 in 1772. That survived a number of close calls (30th record fell to 2005), including 14.2 in 2009, and 14.3 in 2011, but was then obliterated by the 16.9 in 2014. The mean for the past thirteen years for 31st October (2005 to 2017) is 11.4 C (11.1 past ten). Meanwhile the 1.6 on 29th in 2008, while 1.3 above the daily record, was the coldest October day since 31 October 1934 (1.2 C). 

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12.3 to the 24th

1.3 above the 61 to 90 average
1.2 above the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th & 13th

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On 24/10/2018 at 12:30, Man With Beard said:

Without a back-down from the models on the cold snap, a final corrected value of between 10.5C and 11C seems very likely to me.

11.0c would suit me nicely, might put me in the top 40 overall too. ?

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Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

12.2C to the 25th... +1.2 (10.0: +0.6)
12.0C to the 26th... +1.1 (7.9: -1.7)
11.7C to the 27th... +0.8 (3.9: -5.9)
11.5C to the 28th... +0.6 (5.3: -4.5)
11.3C to the 29th... +0.5 (5.0: -3.9)
11.1C to the 30th... +0.4 (6.7: -2.5)
11.0C to the 31st... +0.3 (6.6: -2.7)

Not quite as cool as some recent runs, but still enough to give us a reasonable shot at reaching the 81-10 average after corrections.

Oct24.thumb.JPG.3f5b4fb4ddd5e49e4f5a37b9b4d8ae67.JPG   Oct24MM.thumb.JPG.988ca4e66e86ec3e3beaee881d186069.JPG

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Sunny Sheffield at 11.6C +0.5C above normal. Rainfall unchanged at 51.3mm 62% of average. Not a lot of rain forecast so a dry month coming up by the look of things. In fact we've only had eight days of measurable rainfall. Two days with trace conditions.

Edited by The PIT
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2 hours ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield at 11.6C +0.5C above normal. Rainfall unchanged at 51.3mm 62% of average. Not a lot of rain forecast so a dry month coming up by the look of things. In fact we've only had eight days of measurable rainfall. Two days with trace conditions.

Its certainly turning into an extended dry period now. The last 6 months (26th April - 25th October) has had only 211.0mm of rain here - just 63% of normal. Only 33 (out of 183) days in that period have seen >1.0mm of rainfall.

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Thanks for the stats above Roger - I was wrong on 2009 thought it was a colder end, and 2010 was quite average, but as I thought 2012 was preety cold end.

Saturday looks a notably cold day for October, many places will struggle to get above 7 degrees, wouldn't be surprised if some spots languish at the 5 and 6 degree mark. 

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10 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Thanks for the stats above Roger - I was wrong on 2009 thought it was a colder end, and 2010 was quite average, but as I thought 2012 was preety cold end.

Saturday looks a notably cold day for October, many places will struggle to get above 7 degrees, wouldn't be surprised if some spots languish at the 5 and 6 degree mark. 

Indeed, a maximum of 6°C forecast for Saturday, will easily be the coldest day I've experienced since moving here.

Edited by Relativistic
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On 21/10/2018 at 11:48, DAVID SNOW said:

My 10.8 and 75mm could be a win double, first ever?

I had a look at both scoring sets, and these are the CET contest scoring positions in each month for our EWP high scores (1, 2 and any ties) using the Hadley scoring rather than NCIC as, by the way, I will abandon this two-system scoring in the next contest year and use just Hadley, I found them rather slow updating one month and I found the NCIC version, but the Hadley has longer historical references and it updates in real time, so that's what will happen for the 2018-19 EWP contests. ... I then looked at the opposite combinations. Sometimes the CET high scorers don't forecast an EWP so that is left blank as in ---- . 

note: I have derived CET position using the scoring convention of the CET contest (order of entry breaks ties), but in the EWP we have no scoring differences for equal predictions (unless late). We have had one tie for first place in the EWP (Feb 18), and two for second (July, Aug 18).

I have listed scores rather than positions for the cross-reference, and 10.0 is always first, 9.8 has always been second so far. Ranks are shown instead of scores only shown if they are top six EWP. (too much work to go further into the counts). These ranks will score 9.0 or higher.

 

Month ____ EWP 1 ___ EWP 2 ____ CET positions ___ CET 1 ___ CET 2 ____ EWP scores (or ranks)

Dec 17 ___ Timmytour _ Term Mor __ 25th __ 8th _____ SteveB ____ Don ____ (7.4) (1.8)

Jan 18 ___ syed2878 __ BFTV _____ 39th __ 9th _____ Stargazer _P Gael ____ 3rd _ 6th

Feb 18 ___ T1_ Rain^3 & Davehsug _ 16th _ 33rd _____ MidIceAge _ nn2013 __ 6th __ ----

Mar 18 ___ Jonboy ___ Roger Smith _ 24th_ 10th _____ Kent Man __ vizzy ____ ---- __ (2.6)

Apr 18 ___ seaside60 _ Don ________30th _ 26th _____ doctor32 __ Opt Prime _(2.7) _ ----

May 18 ___ Norrance _ Polar Gael ___ 23rd _ 2nd _____ SteveB ___ P Gael ___ (0.2) _ 2nd

June 18 ___B87 ___ Diag Red Line __ 19th _ 59th _____ Kirk wx __ Norrance __(7.6) (1.2) 

July 18 ___ Seasonality_Reef, pegg24_ 20th_39,38th ___Term Mor _ P Gael ___ (1.4) (5.5)

Aug 18 ___ Rob Garrett_Dr(S)No,syed_ 60th_23rd, 3rd __ AlexisJ9 _ Rad Dend _ 4th _  (2.8)

Sep 18 ___ Stargazer _ Evening Star __ 27th _ 51st _____ Kirk wx __ coldest w _ (5.3) _ ----

__________________________________________________________________________________

So, these are the closest results we have had to a double win, using Hadley EWP ...

(1) In May 2018, Polar Gael was 2nd in both. 

(2) In Jan 2018, Stargazer was 3rd in EWP and 1st in CET.

(3) In Aug 2018, syed2878 was tied 2nd in EWP and 3rd in CET.

(4) In Aug 2018, AlexisJ9 was 1st in CET and 4th in EWP.

... these are listed in order of highest second rank in the double, ties broken by high rank.

The answer then is, no, using Hadley scoring, nobody has had high score in both contests. 

Oddly enough, there is little correlation between ranks of CET and EWP among high scorers.

Among those with consistently high scoring such as Singularity, Polar Gael and Norrance, perhaps some correlation.

The average CET rank of the EWP high score is 29th place (taking an average when there was a tie).

The average CET rank of the second highest EWP score is 25th (taking an average in the two cases that were tied). 

Good luck with the try for the double. 

 

 

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12.2 to the 25th

1.2 above the 61 to 90 average
1.2 above the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th & 13th

Edited by Summer Sun
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Sunny Sheffield up to 11.7C +0.7C above normal. Rainfall 52.6mm 63.5% of the monthly average. Looking like we will end up above average overall and a dry month. The cold spell not severe enough to make much of dint in the averages apart from Saturday.

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