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October 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest


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Looking at the queries above - Every point deduction in the overall comp is pretty much the final points deduction after adjustments, this is by accident rather than by design. However this remains a

Confirmed as 10.6C: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat 0.1C below the 1981-2010 average and the coolest October since 2012.

Here's the forecast based on the 12z GFS Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 12.4C to the 22nd... +1.2 (9.3: -0.6) 12.3C to the 23rd... +1.2 (

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12.0 to the 7th

0.3 below the 61 to 90 average
0.1 below the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th

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16 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

The longer outlook is cooler, sub 11c me thinks.

Likely to be between 12.5C and 13C by mid-month, so for October as a whole to be below 11C would require the second half to average around 9C. Possible, but unlikely I think. Unless there's some monster end of month downward correction.

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2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Likely to be between 12.5C and 13C by mid-month, so for October as a whole to be below 11C would require the second half to average around 9C. Possible, but unlikely I think. Unless there's some monster end of month downward correction.

At least a 0.4 downward correction will be applied.

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11.9 to the 8th

0.3 below the 61 to 90 average
0.1 below the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th

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Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

12.2C to the 9th... +0.2 (14.7: +2.8)
12.5C to the 10th... +0.5 (15.4: +3.2)
13.0C to the 11th... +0.9 (17.5: +5.8) [Daily Record: 17.6C from 1978]
13.0C to the 12th... +1.0 (13.5: +1.9)
13.3C to the 13th... +1.4 (16.8: +5.5) [Daily Record 16.8C from 1990]
13.2C to the 14th... +1.4 (12.6: +1.7)
13.0C to the 15th... +1.2 (9.7: -1.1)
12.9C to the 16th... +1.3 (12.0: +1.7)
12.9C to the 17th... +1.3 (11.6: +1.6)
12.6C to the 18th... +1.1 (8.9: -1.2)

One or 2 chilly days, but overall a very mild outlook for the next 10, with a couple of daily records under threat.

  Oct8.thumb.JPG.0e4e80cc86ff8235c879d1e5cdaf70cd.JPG   Oct8MM.thumb.JPG.2da76f7b406d3ac1bc309d7953931b93.JPG

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1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

A below average 2nd half of October should pull the average down to just below average by the end.

3 more rises are on the way at least over the next few days, it could be a real struggle to get the CET below average if that's what you're looking for. It should be comfortably over 1C above both averages by Sunday.

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Just something I've noticed.

Friday night into Saturday morning london is not forecast to drop below 19oC and where I am here in Hertfordshire its not meant to be below 18oC! 

I researched the record highest overnight minima and it's 19.4oC for October! 

Is it a record worth watching out for?!

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Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

13.0C to the 11th... +1.0 (16.8: +5.1) [Daily Record: 17.6C from 1978]
13.2C to the 12th... +1.2 (15.4: +3.8)
13.6C to the 13th... +1.7 (18.5: +7.2) [Previous record 16.8C from 1990]
13.5C to the 14th... +1.6 (11.9: +1.0)
13.3C to the 15th... +1.5 (10.8: +0.0)
13.2C to the 16th... +1.5 (11.5: +1.2)
13.0C to the 17th... +1.4 (10.5: +0.5)
12.8C to the 18th... +1.3 (8.9: -1.2)
12.6C to the 19th... +1.2 (9.8: -0.2)
12.6C to the 20th... +1.2 (10.9: +1.1)

Quite a remarkable forecast for the 13th. if it came off, it would push the latest date a CET of 18.5C or more has been recorded 7 days further into Autumn.
After that, daily values return close to the seasonal average, with the rolling CET dropping away accordingly.

Oct10.thumb.JPG.544f61f2a77b2a40472dd57646499d87.JPG   Oct10MM.thumb.JPG.b87a62e1237f6876f417926264aeea21.JPG

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20 hours ago, ARW WeatherMan said:

Just something I've noticed.

Friday night into Saturday morning london is not forecast to drop below 19oC and where I am here in Hertfordshire its not meant to be below 18oC! 

I researched the record highest overnight minima and it's 19.4oC for October! 

Is it a record worth watching out for?!

The record for England is 18.6C so this could definitely be beaten!

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4 minutes ago, ARW WeatherMan said:

Will be very interesting to see if it does 

For it to be broken does it have to stay above 18.6oC in a location for 24 hours? 

No it only needs to stay above 18.6 from 21:00 this evening until 9:00 tomorrow morning,

as that's the twelve hour time period during which minimum temperatures are recorded.

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2 hours ago, crucible72 said:

No it only needs to stay above 18.6 from 21:00 this evening until 9:00 tomorrow morning,

as that's the twelve hour time period during which minimum temperatures are recorded.

Well judging by the 15oC 850hpa temperatures I think it's looking likely that will be broken somewhere tonight then!?

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