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October 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest


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Looking at the queries above - Every point deduction in the overall comp is pretty much the final points deduction after adjustments, this is by accident rather than by design. However this remains a

Confirmed as 10.6C: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat 0.1C below the 1981-2010 average and the coolest October since 2012.

Here's the forecast based on the 12z GFS Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 12.4C to the 22nd... +1.2 (9.3: -0.6) 12.3C to the 23rd... +1.2 (

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20 hours ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:

13C. The first half of October is heading into warmest on record territory..

That prediction of first half of October being warmest on record looks a bust before the month has even started.

First half of October 1921 had a CET of 15.4C 

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10.1*C and 84 mm, thanks.

Yep - extremely boring - but I'm staying 'serious' and hoping that the scientific approach can recover at least a little after the tragic 'no-Nino' situation of Aug-Sep which threw the estimates wide(r) of the mark ??.

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CET forecasts .. number in brackets shows the order of entry (only the last one counts in that regard)

15.5 LG (10) .. 13.0 Blu (37)

12.5 syed (40) .. 12.4 TJM14 (13) ..12.1 RJS (31), KMan (43)

11.6 dav (55) .. 11.5 PG (7), viz (46), MWB (56)

11.3 vir (21), SF (42) .. 11.2 sray (41), Mul (53) .. 11.1 reef (52) .. 11.0 avg 1988-2017 and J10 (57)

10.9 BFTP (26) ..10.8 EdS (11), MBay (30), DK3 (54)

10.7 avg 1981-2010 and SB (1), SS (34), metal (50) .. 10.6 MIA (17), Rel (22) .. 10.5 Dr(S) (25), Dww (29), Pit (36)

10.4 w26 (4), Doc (49), CPS (58) and consensus .. ... 10.3 BFTV (45) ..

10.2 RD (8), Jeff (27), dlaw (39), w-h (44) .. 10.1 IRA252 (2), PSL (24), Don (48), sing (51)

10.0 Bob (9), Leo (5), Owl (20), Feb91 (32)

 9.9 nn2013 (14), star (33), Nor (35) .. 9.8 Kirk (15), Ste (6)

 9.7 Peg (16) .. 9.6 Godb (18) .. 9.5 sdog (23), Dun (47)

 9.4 LIS (28) .. 9.3 SDr (38) .. 9.1 Sum95 (19)

 8.9 Dami (12) .. 7.7 DRL (3)

58 forecasts (on time), consensus is 10.4 C.

===================================================================

 

EWP forecasts (mm)

 

200 LG .. 121.3 PG .. 117 CPS .. 115 BFTV .. 111 SDr .. 110 Bob

105 Jeff .. (100.8 mm _ avg 1981-2010 )

 99 EdS, Rel, Nor, J10 ..  (96.6 mm _ avg 1988-2017) .. 95 dav ... 92 DK3 ... 90 nn2013

 88 w26 .. 87 SF .. 86 vir ... 85 Dr(S), syed, Reef .. 84 sing (consensus) ... 80 Leo, BFTP

 78 Sum95 .. 76 viz .. 75 MIA .. 70 Peg, Feb91, Pit, Mul

 69.6 Kirk .. 68 TJM14, Don .. 65 w-h .. 64 Ste .. 63 RD

 55 Dami, Godb, RJS, Doc .. 53 Star .. 

____________________________

41 on time (extends to 0300h) .. consensus 84 mm. 

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Dam late again.

Can I have 11.1c please.

89mm on the old rainfall guess.

Difficult to call really, I think the hots versus the colds will even out ish over the month, will it go lower than average in October.

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1981-2010 CET averages, cumulative and 1772 - 2017 record values

________________________________________________________________

 

Date __ CET __ cum ____ MAX ________ MIN 

01 ___ 12.9 ___ 12.9 ___ 20.2 (1985) ___ 6.1 (1808&1888)
02 ___ 12.3 ___ 12.6 ___ 17.9 (2011) ___ 3.6 (1817)
03 ___ 12.1 ___ 12.4 ___ 19.8 (2011) ___ 4.7 (1817)
04 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.3 ___ 17.7 (1959) ___ 5.1 (1912)
05 ___ 11.6 ___ 12.2 ___ 17.9 (1886) ___ 4.6 (1888)

06 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.1 ___19.0 (1921) ___ 4.1 (1888)
07 ___ 11.7 ___ 12.1 ___16.9 (1921) ___ 3.5 (1829)
08 ___ 11.8 ___ 12.0 ___17.7 (1995) ___ 4.1 (1829)
09 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.0 ___17.5 (1995) ___ 3.3 (1852)
10 ___ 12.5 ___ 12.0 ___17.8 (1921) ___ 3.5 (1814)

11 ___ 11.7 ___ 12.0 ___ 17.6 (1978) ___ 3.9 (1860)
12 ___ 11.6 ___ 12.0 ___ 16.5 (1978) ___ 3.2 (1887)
13 ___ 11.4 ___ 11.9 ___ 16.8 (1990) ___ 2.2 (1838)
14 ___ 10.9 ___ 11.8 ___ 17.2 (2017) ___ 3.1 (1838) __ max was 16.1 (1990)
15 ___ 10.8 ___ 11.8 ___ 15.7 (1930) ___ 2.5 (1843)

16 ___ 10.3 ___ 11.7 ___ 16.4 (2017) ___ 1.8 (1843) __ max was 15.8 (1818)
17 ___ 10.0 ___ 11.6 ___ 15.6 (1897) ___ 2.5 (1824)
18 ___ 10.1 ___ 11.5 ___ 16.7 (2014) ___ 2.4 (1843)
19 ___ 10.0 ___ 11.4 ___ 16.3 (1921) ___ 1.5 (1813)
20 ____ 9.8 ___ 11.3 ___ 14.9 (1795) ___ 2.1 (1842)

21 ____ 9.6 ___ 11.3 ___ 15.2 (1998) ___ 1.2 (1842)
22 ____ 9.9 ___ 11.2 ___ 16.2 (1906) ___ 2.5 (1931)
23 ____ 9.6 ___ 11.1 ___ 14.4 (1998) ___ 0.9 (1859)
24 ____ 9.4 ___ 11.1 ___ 14.3 (2009) ___ 0.6 (1859) __ 14.2 in 2017 close to max
25 ____ 9.4 ___ 11.0 __ 14.0 (1978, 2013) _ 2.0 (1784) __ 13.9 in 2017 close to max

26 ____ 9.6 ___ 10.9 ___ 14.7 (1927) ___ 1.5 (1785)
27 ____ 9.8 ___ 10.9 ___ 16.7 (1888) ___ 1.4 (1869)
28 ____ 9.8 ___ 10.9 ___ 15.6 (1888) ___ 0.9 (1895)
29 ____ 8.9 ___ 10.8 __ 14.0 (1772,1984) _ 0.3 (1895)
30 ____ 9.2 ___ 10.7 ___ 15.5 (2005) ___ 0.7 (1836)

31 ____ 9.3 ___ 10.7 ___ 16.9 (2014) ___ 0.7 (1836)

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