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October 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest


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Looking at the queries above - Every point deduction in the overall comp is pretty much the final points deduction after adjustments, this is by accident rather than by design. However this remains a

Confirmed as 10.6C: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat 0.1C below the 1981-2010 average and the coolest October since 2012.

Here's the forecast based on the 12z GFS Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 12.4C to the 22nd... +1.2 (9.3: -0.6) 12.3C to the 23rd... +1.2 (

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Out of interest....as we get into 2nd week 8-12 Oct...let’s see if we get a pretty warm burst of weather.....this could be the signal of the HP domination slipping east bringing SSE/ S airflow and late warmth before we see the potential very unsettled weather moving in from Atlantic.  Just a little note I’ve written 

 

BFTP

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I'm thinking average at the moment, so let's go with 10.7C for now ...  I am thinking below average is possible too but in recent years it's been so hard to get a below average month outside of summer - I think the synoptics need to get a little more extreme to make that call.

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19 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Where is the mm of rainfall forecast for - is it the same as the temperature forecast - the CET zone please?

The rainfall (precip) forecast is for England and Wales, see original post for the normal values (near 100 mm). 

My forecast is for a rather mixed first half and very mild second half so perhaps we get our first 12.1 C, with 55 mm (often rather dry). 

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Mmm tricky to call this one, but a slight bias to something colder than average, maybe only slightly so, possibly significantly so.. err on caution and go just a little below at 10.2 degrees, first time this has seemed possible since March. Some cold frosty nights will have an effect, Second half may bring something significantly colder..

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This may prove to be slightly suicidal for the CET competition... but I've seen a big shift in the charts in the past two days. Looks much warmer than I expected in the first half now, with only a small chance of a continental influence suppressing temperatures.

Please increase my prediction to 11.8C. 

Edited by Man With Beard
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