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Roger J Smith

October 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

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(1) October C.E.T. averages and extremes

 

20.2 ... warmest day, 1st 1985

20.1 ... second warmest day, 1st 2011

 

13.3 ... warmest Oct 2001

13.1 ... second warmest Oct 2005

13.0 ... third warmest Octs, 1969 and 2006

12.9 ... fifth warmest Oct, 1995

12.8 ... sixth warmest Oct 1921

12.7 ... seventh warmest Oct  and warmest of 19th century 1831

12.6 ... eighth warmest Octs 1959, 2011

12.5 ... tenth warmest Octs 1968, 20132014

12.4 ... 13th warmest Oct 2017

12.3 ... tied 14th and warnest of 18th century 1731 (with 1811)

12.1 and 12.2 ... have never occurred in all 359 years

12.0 ... only occurrence was 1818 (16th warmest)

11.9 ... 1990 (from here down to coldest months, occurrences including ties before 1981 are not listed)

11.8 ... 

11.7 ... 1989, 1996

11.6 ... 2009

11.5 ... 

11.4 ... mean 2001-2017

11.3 ...

11.2 ...

11.1 ... 1984

11.0 ... mean 1991-2017 and 1988-2017 ... ... 1985, 1986, 2015

10.9 ... mean 1986-2015 ... ... ... 2007, 2016

10.8 ...

10.7 ... mean 1981-2010 ... ... ... 1999

10.6 ... mean 1961-1990 ... ... ... 1998

10.5 ... 1983, 2004

10.4 ... mean 1971-2000 ... ... ... 1988

10.3 ... 2000, 2010

10.2 ... mean 1901-2000 ... ... ... 1991, 1994, 1997

10.1 ... 1982, 2002

10.0 ...

 9.9 ...

 9.8 ...

 9.7 .... mean for all years 1659-2017 ... ... ...  1987, 2008, 2012 

 9.6 ...

 9.5 .... mean 1801-1900

 9.4 .... mean 1701-1800

 9.3 .... mean 1659-1700

 9.2 ... 2003

 

 8.6 ... 1981

 8.5 ... 1993

 

 7.8 .... tied 26th coldest Oct, coldest Oct recent past, 1974 and 1992

 7.5 .... tied 8th coldest Oct, coldest Oct 20th century 1905

 6.9 ... fifth coldest Oct 1896

 6.5 .... tied 3rd coldest Octs, 1683 and 1692

 6.4 .... second coldest Oct 1817

 5.3 .... coldest Oct 1740

 

 0.3 .... coldest day 29th, 1895 (since daily records began in 1772 -- 1740 could have produced a colder day)

__________________ _ _ _ 

Enter your CET forecast by Sunday September 30th at midnight, or with increasing late penalties on the first three days of October.

===============================================================================

(2) Optional E.W.P. forecast contest

 

218.1 mm __ 1903 _ wettest 1766-2017 (Hadley) ... also wettest month of any name

180.3 mm __ 2000 _ wettest 1910-2017 (NCIC series) ... Hadley was 188.0 mm and second after 1903.

100.8 mm __ mean for 1981-2010

 96.6 mm __ mean for 1988-2017

 37.9 mm ___2016 _ driest 1981-2017 (NCIC series) ... Hadley was 46.0 mm

 18.8 mm ___1978 _ driest 1910-2017 (NCIC series) ... Hadley was 17.2 mm

__ 8.8 mm __1781 _ driest 1766-2017 (Hadley) ... 1809 and 1784 also drier than 1978

 

note: for driest October since 1910, 1969 and 1947 were a close 2nd and 3rd in both series.

note also: October is the wettest month 1981-2010 although December is wettest 1988-2017.

__________________________ _ _ _

add your EWP forecast (in mm) to your CET forecast entry, same deadlines with three hour extensions before late penalties apply.

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Stick me at 10.7C, bang on the 30 year average.

Although i do not enter the precipitation forecast i expect an extremely wet month with 100mm+.

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Hoping for a chilly one this year. Don’t mind the first part being warm and Summery. Second half love to be very below average with some frosts and wintry weather. CET guess: 7.7*C.

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Will wait until end of the month before posting my guess. Notable how many of the warmest Octobers on record have occurred in the past 20 years or so. We've had a real mix of Octobers in recent years, but one notable aspect has been the tendency for very mild ends, some very mild Halloweens indeed. I like October to trend colder throughout, with the first air frost by the third week, and a spell of high pressure frosty nights, and foggy mornings before the month is out, with the traditional stormy end and the first smattering of shortlived white stuff on the high tops.- a shot of arctic air always welcomed.

More often than not, October can see the atlantic wage supreme with mild murky dank wet westerly/southwesterly airstreams - think 2013, not a fan of such months. I would be happy with a Oct like 2008, 2010 and 2012 with all brought a potent northerly clean blast.

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Cold and mainly dry

9.8c and 64mm

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11.5C and 121.3mm for me please. 

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15.5C.  The summer of hell is giving away to the autumn of hell. :(  Last sub 6C October in 1740.  Last sub 7C October in 1896.  Last sub 8C October in 1992.  Last sub 9C October in 1993.

200mm of Atlantic garbage

Edited by Lettucing Gutted
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I'll guess at 10.8C and 99mm, please...

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8.9c and 55mm. chilly and dry. needs mist for halloween.

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9.1 and 78mm. We are well overdue a cold one, so many longstanding jinxes broken in the last 12 months. Mix of wet and dry spells.

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As theres not been a 10cet as I`ve had a quick glance,I`ll go for that every month since august has gone below what I went for so I`ll go a touch below average this time.

There will be an indian summer snap.

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