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October 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    (1) October C.E.T. averages and extremes

     

    20.2 ... warmest day, 1st 1985

    20.1 ... second warmest day, 1st 2011

     

    13.3 ... warmest Oct 2001

    13.1 ... second warmest Oct 2005

    13.0 ... third warmest Octs, 1969 and 2006

    12.9 ... fifth warmest Oct, 1995

    12.8 ... sixth warmest Oct 1921

    12.7 ... seventh warmest Oct  and warmest of 19th century 1831

    12.6 ... eighth warmest Octs 1959, 2011

    12.5 ... tenth warmest Octs 1968, 20132014

    12.4 ... 13th warmest Oct 2017

    12.3 ... tied 14th and warnest of 18th century 1731 (with 1811)

    12.1 and 12.2 ... have never occurred in all 359 years

    12.0 ... only occurrence was 1818 (16th warmest)

    11.9 ... 1990 (from here down to coldest months, occurrences including ties before 1981 are not listed)

    11.8 ... 

    11.7 ... 1989, 1996

    11.6 ... 2009

    11.5 ... 

    11.4 ... mean 2001-2017

    11.3 ...

    11.2 ...

    11.1 ... 1984

    11.0 ... mean 1991-2017 and 1988-2017 ... ... 1985, 1986, 2015

    10.9 ... mean 1986-2015 ... ... ... 2007, 2016

    10.8 ...

    10.7 ... mean 1981-2010 ... ... ... 1999

    10.6 ... mean 1961-1990 ... ... ... 1998

    10.5 ... 1983, 2004

    10.4 ... mean 1971-2000 ... ... ... 1988

    10.3 ... 2000, 2010

    10.2 ... mean 1901-2000 ... ... ... 1991, 1994, 1997

    10.1 ... 1982, 2002

    10.0 ...

     9.9 ...

     9.8 ...

     9.7 .... mean for all years 1659-2017 ... ... ...  1987, 2008, 2012 

     9.6 ...

     9.5 .... mean 1801-1900

     9.4 .... mean 1701-1800

     9.3 .... mean 1659-1700

     9.2 ... 2003

     

     8.6 ... 1981

     8.5 ... 1993

     

     7.8 .... tied 26th coldest Oct, coldest Oct recent past, 1974 and 1992

     7.5 .... tied 8th coldest Oct, coldest Oct 20th century 1905

     6.9 ... fifth coldest Oct 1896

     6.5 .... tied 3rd coldest Octs, 1683 and 1692

     6.4 .... second coldest Oct 1817

     5.3 .... coldest Oct 1740

     

     0.3 .... coldest day 29th, 1895 (since daily records began in 1772 -- 1740 could have produced a colder day)

    __________________ _ _ _ 

    Enter your CET forecast by Sunday September 30th at midnight, or with increasing late penalties on the first three days of October.

    ===============================================================================

    (2) Optional E.W.P. forecast contest

     

    218.1 mm __ 1903 _ wettest 1766-2017 (Hadley) ... also wettest month of any name

    180.3 mm __ 2000 _ wettest 1910-2017 (NCIC series) ... Hadley was 188.0 mm and second after 1903.

    100.8 mm __ mean for 1981-2010

     96.6 mm __ mean for 1988-2017

     37.9 mm ___2016 _ driest 1981-2017 (NCIC series) ... Hadley was 46.0 mm

     18.8 mm ___1978 _ driest 1910-2017 (NCIC series) ... Hadley was 17.2 mm

    __ 8.8 mm __1781 _ driest 1766-2017 (Hadley) ... 1809 and 1784 also drier than 1978

     

    note: for driest October since 1910, 1969 and 1947 were a close 2nd and 3rd in both series.

    note also: October is the wettest month 1981-2010 although December is wettest 1988-2017.

    __________________________ _ _ _

    add your EWP forecast (in mm) to your CET forecast entry, same deadlines with three hour extensions before late penalties apply.

    Edited by Roger J Smith
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    Looking at the queries above - Every point deduction in the overall comp is pretty much the final points deduction after adjustments, this is by accident rather than by design. However this remains a

    Confirmed as 10.6C: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat 0.1C below the 1981-2010 average and the coolest October since 2012.

    Here's the forecast based on the 12z GFS Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 12.4C to the 22nd... +1.2 (9.3: -0.6) 12.3C to the 23rd... +1.2 (

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    12.0c...Cheer’s...?to start, then the 2nd half 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Stick me at 10.7C, bang on the 30 year average.

    Although i do not enter the precipitation forecast i expect an extremely wet month with 100mm+.

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    Hoping for a chilly one this year. Don’t mind the first part being warm and Summery. Second half love to be very below average with some frosts and wintry weather. CET guess: 7.7*C.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

    9.9C and 117mm.

    A few warm days to start, turning wet and cool afterwards, and one or two storms. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Will wait until end of the month before posting my guess. Notable how many of the warmest Octobers on record have occurred in the past 20 years or so. We've had a real mix of Octobers in recent years, but one notable aspect has been the tendency for very mild ends, some very mild Halloweens indeed. I like October to trend colder throughout, with the first air frost by the third week, and a spell of high pressure frosty nights, and foggy mornings before the month is out, with the traditional stormy end and the first smattering of shortlived white stuff on the high tops.- a shot of arctic air always welcomed.

    More often than not, October can see the atlantic wage supreme with mild murky dank wet westerly/southwesterly airstreams - think 2013, not a fan of such months. I would be happy with a Oct like 2008, 2010 and 2012 with all brought a potent northerly clean blast.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Cold and mainly dry

    9.8c and 64mm

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    Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

    11.5C and 121.3mm for me please. 

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  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts

    10C and 110mm for me please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

    15.5C.  The summer of hell is giving away to the autumn of hell. :(  Last sub 6C October in 1740.  Last sub 7C October in 1896.  Last sub 8C October in 1992.  Last sub 9C October in 1993.

    200mm of Atlantic garbage

    Edited by Lettucing Gutted
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

    8.9c and 55mm. chilly and dry. needs mist for halloween.

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    Posted
  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level

    9.7c please 70mm

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    Posted
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, especially heavy snow.
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.

    9.6c and 55mm please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

    As theres not been a 10cet as I`ve had a quick glance,I`ll go for that every month since august has gone below what I went for so I`ll go a touch below average this time.

    There will be an indian summer snap.

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