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bluearmy

Typhoon mangkhut

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Will soon strike the Mariana islands but I’m looking at the modelling taking the strengthening storm into the South China Sea and potentially the highly populated region around Hong Kong in about a week.  If lucky, the n of the Philippines and s China coast will just escape. 

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Thankfully not heading for Japan! They had so many this year.

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Beginning to look like there will be two big weather stories within a few days of each other ........ mangkhut on a course for Hong Kong/Shenzhen which could be catastrophic given the population density in these areas. 

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First ec run for a while which spares Hong Kong ..... the central pressure of mangkhut approaching landfall n philipinnes is 906 mb and max wind gust 169 knots, 133 mph sustained ........

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First look at this one on weather.us ... holy cow!! ECM predicting a hit on N Phillipinnes with gusts up to 201mph!! Then onto the south China coast with gusts still up to 149mph!!

Florence is a bit of a midget compared to this one.

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I love weather, but this thing scares me. It could well end up being the second most powerful typhoon on record, given how much potential it has for further strengthening.

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3 minutes ago, cowdog said:

I love weather, but this thing scares me. It could well end up being the second most powerful typhoon on record, given how much potential it has for further strengthening.

Indeed ,these things are capable  of destroying steel reinforced  concrete structures  as Tip did 😨

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Could be comparable to Haiyan or Tip. A real monster of a storm. Despite america having its fair share of devastation from hurricanes, they have it often quite easy compared to the Philippines, which got absolutely shredded to bits from Haiyan back in 2013. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91

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Dvorak had dropped to 6.5~ range, but looking at the sat images it looks finally to be finishing its monstrous eye wall replacement and already the wind field seems to have massively expanded as a result. Dvorak is now at a Raw of 6.8, and I would guess its going to rise further assuming the EWRC finishes. Would imagine there are a lot of people in Asia praying it doesn't finish this EWRC.

Is there any record for the largest eye size? As the resulting eye could end up being a contender if there is.

 

 

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Just a matter of hours now until Mangkhut hits the northern Philippines. 

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24 minutes ago, karyo said:

Just a matter of hours now until Mangkhut hits the northern Philippines. 

Indeed  Florence seems to have attracted most of the headlines  however this Typhoon will be much more destructive  in my opinion  a truly immense storm.

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1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Indeed  Florence seems to have attracted most of the headlines  however this Typhoon will be much more destructive  in my opinion  a truly immense storm.

I was just thinking exactly the same !

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2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Indeed  Florence seems to have attracted most of the headlines  however this Typhoon will be much more destructive  in my opinion  a truly immense storm.

I couldn't agree more! Unfortunately, US news always get priority and this includes natural disasters.

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Looks like Mangkhut gets close enough to HK tomorrow to bring several hours of hurricane force winds. given the densely populated nature of the city and plentiful skyscrapers, I expect will be a pretty scary period for the authorities and locals. (Plus tourists). 

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It's hard to imagine a highly developed sky scraper city with hurricane winds.

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This surely is a massive problem for Hong Kong and S China? Have there ever been so many people in the path of such a strong storm? 

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It will cause much disruption but the modern buildings won't suffer too much damage.
Hong Kong and Shenzhen still have areas of densely packed and poorly maintained older buildings though.
The rural areas even close to town will suffer most, landslides and power cuts etc.

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13 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This surely is a massive problem for Hong Kong and S China? Have there ever been so many people in the path of such a strong storm? 

The only positive I can think of is it’s sunday so people won’t be tempted to go to work and risk their safety travelling. the storm expected to make landfall few hundred miles west of Hong Kong - there are some very populated cities along the coast and I doubt local building regs have been complied with in many cases .........

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