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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Official special update from nhc. 

     
    ...FLORENCE BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
    
    Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Florence
    has continued to rapidly stregthen and has maximum sustained winds
    near 130 mph (195 km/h).  The latest minimum central pressure based
    on data from the aircraft is 946 mb (27.93 inches).
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    Nice feed here    

    Had to share this:  

    This a beautiful satellite picture from NOAA showing the three tropical disturbances...

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Medway - 57m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: Medway - 57m ASL

    Unless there's some sharp miracle turn or weakening this is looking very very bad for the East Coast.

    I have a friend in both Virginia and North Carolina and they say the attitude towards it is still very much like it'll be a tropical storm and it's no biggie.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    2 minutes ago, Lauren said:

    Unless there's some sharp miracle turn or weakening this is looking very very bad for the East Coast.

    I have a friend in both Virginia and North Carolina and they say the attitude towards it is still very much like it'll be a tropical storm and it's no biggie.

    Given the potential for stalling once it makes landfall, it’s a struggle to believe that preparations for severe flooding aren’t already being made. whilst the wind field re damaging stuff may well be small and therefore difficult to take on board at this range, the potential area which could suffer flooding would be much larger. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cottingham
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Cottingham
    13 minutes ago, karyo said:

    Both the Aprege and the GFS so far have shifted Florence's path north and east. The Aprege makes landfall in NC. The GFS out to 96 hours doesn't look like hitting the Carolinas.

    The UKMO still takes her to NC.

    Worrying, if intensification is greater then forecast, there is a greater chance it will curve further north.

    Given the recon has found 130mph winds and SLP of 948mb this may well be the case...

    It really wouldn't surprise me if this ends up being a category 5. Other things that concern me is that this will make landfall during high tide. It could also get stuck over land and with the Eastern US being exceptionally wet next in recent weeks (ground is saturated) and the forecast 20-30inches of rain, this unfortunately has the recipe of a perfect storm. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Medway - 57m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: Medway - 57m ASL
    11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Given the potential for stalling once it makes landfall, it’s a struggle to believe that preparations for severe flooding aren’t already being made. whilst the wind field re damaging stuff may well be small and therefore difficult to take on board at this range, the potential area which could suffer flooding would be much larger. 

    She and her husband are prepped. They are in a flood risk zone at the best of times and have done all they can but the vibe theyre getting from the neighbours is one of complacency. They haven't been given evacuation orders yet, but will go if they do so.

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    Posted
  • Location: Medway - 57m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: Medway - 57m ASL

    What kind of drop in pressure is considered normal and what is considered rapid in mb/hour?

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
    8 minutes ago, Lauren said:

    What kind of drop in pressure is considered normal and what is considered rapid in mb/hour?

    I would say falling 15mb in 24 hrs would be considered good strengthening. 

    24mb-24hrs boardline RI. 

    Nhc classification of ri is 30kts is 24 hrs. 

    Wilma achieved a 100mb pressure drop in 30 hrs. Which is a record breaker. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Raw t. Numbers have increased to 6.0. 

    T7.0 is considered a cat 5. 

    Re affects. I completely agree that rain will be the biggest, but I wouldn’t discount wind from being a big problem. 

    strong  winds are really expanding out particularly in the north. With at least 1 erc likely then winds capable of destruction will expand out 200 miles and last many many hours. 

    Storm surge could be a really killer to. I am sure I saw nhc mention that they expect 5 high tides to be dangerously high due to the slow movement and angle of approach. 

    The danger is a push affect ie each tide is built upon as the water fails to go back out completely. 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    So from a TS to a CAT 5 in 36-48 hours

    & in this day & age no model can resolve this RI - yet it was fairly easy to see that the conditions were near on perfect..

    Based on climate change & perfect conditions available they will need to revisit the scale soon to add CAT 6

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    ECM 12z initialised way above what the actual start pressure was ~ cant see but probs 980/990- when infact it was 950-960

    So the landfall numbers will be way out.( or as a minimum the approach to landfall)

    B9C24B7F-9F03-434C-8721-C5C616FF55BA.thumb.png.c1cd7abb8d27ffe3e347757ce004fead.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    High res ec init at 965mb I think. Still way above though, it lead to lower pressure at landfall. Correct init with adj landfall would give around 935mb imho. 

    With 1-2ft of rain 8-10m storm surge, sustained winds of 150mph and gusts to 170mph. Wilmington doesn’t really stand a chance, if it stays as is. 

    1C87BA6F-5E19-44FF-B27E-328CEA783F33.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    These are 12z numbers remember so it was closer back at 12. Euro and gfs among others also use specialist data for hurricane modelling.

    One should never go purely by model forecasts though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    It looks a cracker on the GFS!!  -   I cant get excited though as we are never likely to see any storm comparable to these high cat ones in the UK, the nearest thing we had to it was October 1987, but that's a once in 300 year event so what chance of that being repeated, that said though some experts say a more active season can have an increased chance of a cold UK winter so lets hope the hurricane season picks up from now onwards.

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    12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    It looks a cracker on the GFS!!  -   I cant get excited though as we are never likely to see any storm comparable to these high cat ones in the UK, the nearest thing we had to it was October 1987, but that's a once in 300 year event so what chance of that being repeated, that said though some experts say a more active season can have an increased chance of a cold UK winter so lets hope the hurricane season picks up from now onwards.

    Think it's fair to say some winterstorms  that have hit  northern Scotland  in the past have been  equal  to cat 3 hurricanes, far more powerful  than 87 though thankfully in areas of low population 

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