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831 
WTNT31 KNHC 100247
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number  43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

...FLORENCE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 57.7W
ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor
the progress of Florence.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 57.7 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion
is forecast to continue tonight. A west-northwestward motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected on Monday, and that motion is
forecast to continue through mid-week.  On the forecast track, the
center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean
between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach
the southeastern coast of the United States on Thursday.

Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased
to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts.  Florence is forecast
to rapidly strengthen to a major hurricane by Monday night, and is
expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane through
Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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Nice feed here    

Had to share this:  

This a beautiful satellite picture from NOAA showing the three tropical disturbances...

Posted Images

Ec has her track a little further nw this morning through the carolinas with ne part of s Carolina more at risk re flooding than previous  ..... a whopping 47” ( in west of n Carolina ) the maximum and way inland as she stalls and slowly fills under the ridge 

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Florence looks very impressive atm. She is really starting to sharpen the outflow and has a nice inflow channel. All signs of a major category hurricane. A cat 3 looks likely. Some signs of a cat 4 showing as well. 

 

Quick update to say that in the last 20mins deep convection has fully wrapped the eye. We could be looking at a cat 4 eye. Winds might need some time to respond. 

The close up is more recent. 

A229F377-4776-4C04-BCBE-249F325FAD3A.jpeg

EF3E8A16-5B78-4EC4-AAF1-7F52317CE3A3.png

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1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Ec has her track a little further nw this morning through the carolinas with ne part of s Carolina more at risk re flooding than previous  ..... a whopping 47” ( in west of n Carolina ) the maximum and way inland as she stalls and slowly fills under the ridge 

I’ve got her track from the ec a little further It’s def edging a little more towards South Carolina. (Now a boarder hit. 

8E029BFB-983F-4363-9377-59B96FE76363.jpeg

060A7B41-EEA0-45BA-9FF9-141AF9D09CA4.png

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Latest advisory:


225 
WTNT31 KNHC 100853
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number  44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...FLORENCE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE VERY SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 58.9W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor
the progress of Florence.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 58.9 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days.  A turn toward the
northwest is forecast to occur Wednesday night or Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday
and Wednesday, and approach the southeastern coast of the United
States on Thursday.

Satellite imagery indicates that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid
strengthening is forecast, and Florence is forecast to become a
major hurricane this morning, and is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous major hurricane through Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/301504.shtml

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32 minutes ago, Lauren said:

At the rate this is going this could be the most devastating storm mainland USA has seen since Katrina.

Cat 5s are a breed to their own. 

They are rare because the internal dynamics need to be very exact. The eye often become unstable at 120kts and above and inflow and outflow channels needs to be very well balanced. Ercs need to be undertaken normally and the eye wall needs to be stronger enough to sustain the cat 5 winds but weak enough to allow the erc to complete. 

All of this on sufficient ocean heat content, low shear and normally an upper high. 

A cat 4 is relatively simple compared to all this. 

A cat 5 might be possible, but still needs a few things to come into play. 

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Discussion as well. 

 

Florence is rapidly strengthening this morning.  The satellite
presentation has improved markedly overnight with a small 10-n-mi
wide-eye becoming apparent in infrared satellite pictures.  The
upper-level outflow continues to expand over the northern and
northwestern portions of the storm, but is somewhat restricted over
the southeastern quadrant.  Dvorak satellite classifications from
TAFB and SAB supported an intensity of around 80 kt at 0600 UTC, but
with the cooling of the cloud tops around the eye since that time,
the initial intensity has been increased to 90 kt for this advisory.
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I mean Katrina was a Cat 3 when she hit. Granted New Orleans is below sea level and levees failed but SC, NC and Virginia have a lot of low lying areas and island communities.

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11 minutes ago, Lauren said:

I mean Katrina was a Cat 3 when she hit. Granted New Orleans is below sea level and levees failed but SC, NC and Virginia have a lot of low lying areas and island communities.

Totally agree. 

The eye atm is the best I’ve seen this year. She’s doing the classic in high res slider and you can see small sections of the eye collapse and quickly reform allowing for the eyeto grow a touch. It means the eye instability is insane. 

A cat 4 cane we just need the winds to catch up. Pressure could even be sub 960 by now. 

0EFD7754-14FD-4EA0-A362-BDCF09A277E8.png

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An area of thunderstorms in the western Caribbean is moving northwestwards and the NHC is giving it a 40% chance to develop into a tropical depression later this week. If it does, i wonder if it can influence Florence's track by throwing a high pressure ridge between the two storms.

The models are currently not making much of this system but this may change in future runs.

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Blown out of the water inc the nhc. 

Recon have already just found 958mb

 

and that was with 112kt surface winds in the weakest sw quad. 

Its quite a bit lower than this. Thought nhc were a bit out. This is a cat 4 Storm. 

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It’s official recon have just passed through the centre and found 

945mb

117kts surface winds 

131kts flight winds 

This is a cat 4 hurricane and the winds are still responding  

nhc were way out on the 16.00 update. A new special update will be issued very very shortly. 

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Nhc will probably go with 115kts. 

Given the delay in winds to pressure falls. A rise to 125kts seems very likely over the next 12 hrs  

beyond that is anyone’s guess  

 

also official rapid intensification  a fall of 37mb in 24 hrs  

 

Edited by Iceberg
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Both the Aprege and the GFS so far have shifted Florence's path north and east. The Aprege makes landfall in NC. The GFS out to 96 hours doesn't look like hitting the Carolinas.

The UKMO still takes her to NC.

Edited by karyo
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