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Iceberg

Hurricane Florence

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5 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Its still a strong hurricane, especially for its latitude. However from what I've read the eyewall replacement cycle yesterday took longer then forecast allowing more dry air into the hurricane which weakened it a bit. Someone may stand to correct me.

Can it still strengthen if possible ? Or it's just getting weaken by landfall ?

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10 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Its still a strong hurricane, especially for its latitude. However from what I've read the eyewall replacement cycle yesterday took longer then forecast allowing more dry air into the hurricane which weakened it a bit. Someone may stand to correct me.

Apparently there was an upper level low near florida feeding it dry air, or so Brendan says.

In any case, the sheer size of this storm, as well as a very unusual direction for landfall in this area, still makes this a very very dangerous hurricane.

People tend to forget that the wind difference between Cat 3 and Cat 5 is primarily the intensity of a comparatively small area in the middle of the storm (and of course, potentially a difference in size, surge, etc....). If you're in the path of the eye, that's a pretty important difference... but for the vast majority of those affected by a hurricane falling onto a large landmass, it's the wider winfield that matters, and this thing is huge.

In addition, it's huge, which means that, as it's coming towards the land directly from the sea (not skirting land at an oblique angle as per usual), it's pushing a considerable surge with it. It's also taking all that rain, and dumping it over land...so not only do you get 20 inches under the area of the CDO, but you get 15 inches around that area, and 10 inches further out from that.... basically, it dumps a biblical amount of rain, and then a slightly less biblical amount of rain just beyond that, saturating the ground, giving it nowhere to drain, and filling rivers from both ends.

Even as a Category 2, Florence is pretty darned nasty.

Edited by crimsone
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3 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Can it still strengthen if possible ? Or it's just getting weaken by landfall ?

It is unlikely to strengthen.... but never say never.

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27 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Apparently there was an upper level low near florida feeding it dry air, or so Brendan says.

In any case, the sheer size of this storm, as well as a very unusual direction for landfall in this area, still makes this a very very dangerous hurricane.

People tend to forget that the wind difference between Cat 3 and Cat 5 is primarily the intensity of a comparatively small area in the middle of the storm (and of course, potentially a difference in size, surge, etc....). If you're in the path of the eye, that's a pretty important difference... but for the vast majority of those affected by a hurricane falling onto a large landmass, it's the wider winfield that matters, and this thing is huge.

In addition, it's huge, which means that, as it's coming towards the land directly from the sea (not skirting land at an oblique angle as per usual), it's pushing a considerable surge with it. It's also taking all that rain, and dumping it over land...so not only do you get 20 inches under the area of the CDO, but you get 15 inches around that area, and 10 inches further out from that.... basically, it dumps a biblical amount of rain, and then a slightly less biblical amount of rain just beyond that, saturating the ground, giving it nowhere to drain, and filling rivers from both ends.

Even as a Category 2, Florence is pretty darned nasty.

An upper tropospheric (250mb) low fed some dry air but also led to shear on the southern side of Florence. This was mentioned in the recent NHC discussion, recent imagery however from the GOES - 16 shows very cold cloud tops now on the southern side. However,  early land interaction seems to be limiting this from wrapping around the eyewall, thus intensity probably won't change much despite the high ocean heat content available to Florence :) . 

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Houses already being ripped apart by the outer bands of Florence.

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Yikes 😨

 

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5 hours ago, Skullzrulerz said:

How come this hurricane is a lot weaker then forecasted ?

Is it not a case of the media and others winding things up, without addding the warning nature has the nasty habit of bowling a curved ball? Some on here at least try and indicate the unknown possibilities. 

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8 hours ago, ciel said:

What is sad, though, is how quickly the media forgets the trauma and turns its attention to the next impending disaster.

Obviously picking a scab is not exciting enough. 

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Not really weaker in my book. It is still a beast.

That Frying Pan Tower cam is crazy right now. The wind is really picking up

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21 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Anyone got 

Looks dodgy that pier. waving about in the wind and waves

Do you reckon it will go ? I can't stop watching it in case I miss if it does !

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Just now, Hurricane Debby said:

Do you reckon it will go ? I can't stop watching it in case I miss if it does !

I think it will.

Also watching the Frying Pan platform, that is one mean sea and the flag should get ripped off soon too.

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We still need a lot more hurricanes in the next month or so, from what I gather at the moment this is still a below average season, the more hurricanes, the more chance of blocking in winter apparently.

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I believe we are currently joint top with the most tropical storms on the planet at one time?

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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24 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

We still need a lot more hurricanes in the next month or so, from what I gather at the moment this is still a below average season, the more hurricanes, the more chance of blocking in winter apparently.

Not much on the horizon for next week so the Atlantic is going to sleep again.

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22 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I believe we are currently joint top with the most tropical storms on the planet at one time?

If Kirk now forms in the G.O.M. then we will hold the new record!

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1 minute ago, Gray-Wolf said:

If Kirk now forms in the G.O.M. then we will hold the new record!

We need them all to turn into hurricanes, preferably major hurricanes.

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